Polar bears should be native to the Pacific Northwest.
It’s no secret that the Seattle Mariners desperately need an everyday first baseman and a hefty righty to support Julio, JP, and Cal in the lineup. While the Mariners still have the option to bring back Justin Turner, and I think he would be good to keep around, they should prioritize signing Pete Alonso, whom the Mets seem ready to move on from after he reportedly turned down a three-year deal. Seattle has been linked by national reporters to Alonso all winter, and while it seems like a longshot given the club’s unwillingness to try and win on anything other than hard (cheap) mode, the fit is easy like a first baseman’s glov-, er, mitt.
Alonso offers a solution to a long-term Mariners problem, an everyday power-hitting first baseman, an issue that the Mariners have faced since 2019—coincidentally, Alonso’s rookie year, when he won Rookie of the Year and set an MLB record for most homers hit by a rookie in a season—when former Met Jay Bruce was getting starts at first base. Arguably, it’s been an issue since 2008, which saw the departure of Richie Sexson. Some of you may think better of the likes of Justin Smoak, Adam Lind, Logan Morrison, Danny Valencia, Ryon Healy, Evan White, and Casey Kotchman; I don’t remember any of them particularly fondly. While Ty France produced a few solid seasons, his singles and HBPs approach at the plate does not offer the sustainability at first base that a gifted slugger can offer. Pete Alonso offers an exciting, power-hitting threat at first base for the first time in a generation.
Besides being a valuable addition to the lineup, Alonso would be another demonstration by the Mariners to other free agents, the league, the fan base, and the team that they are serious about competing. Even though Robbie Ray didn’t end up working out, he was still valuable as a signal to free agents and teams league-wide that the Mariners are open for business and serious about winning. Signing Alonso would have a similar impact while also allowing the Mariners to address a serious hole in their lineup. Additionally, Alonso, who’s been an All-Star four out of his six years in the show, has significant playoff experience, something the Mariners seemed to be targeting with the acquisition of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner. While it’s great that the Mariners managed to break the drought in 2022, the reality is that this team is still pretty inexperienced in the playoffs. Adding a player of Alonso’s caliber and experience would better set the Mariners up to secure a playoff spot after a winter where much of the AL West has taken a more significant step forward.
Alonso’s slight downturn at the plate since the highs of 2021-2022 and the Mets’ unwillingness to sign him are warning signs that he’s headed down the aging curve more quickly than is commensurate with his price tag, but going deeper than the surface numbers, there’s reason to be bullish on the newly-minted 30-year-old. Alonso saw career lows in home runs and slugging percentage in 2024, but remained in the top 2% of the league in exit velocity, top 7% for bat speed, top 11% for barrel percentage, and top 20% for hard hit percentage. His issue is not making contact with the ball or hitting it hard enough, but instead getting the ball in the air. Only 61% of Alonso’s hard-hit balls were in the air, a career low for him; if Alonso can come to the Mariners and continue to put the ball in the air as he has in the past, there’s no reason he can’t return to his prime form. And lest you fear Alonso would be devastatingly impacted by the hitter-suppressing ways of T-Mobile Park, Statcast projects that his career total of 231 homers would, had he played all 702 games in his career thus far in Seattle, drop all the way to a whopping… 231. Alonso’s power is such that he is a player who could slug through the dreaded Marine Layer.
Alonso originally was believed to be seeking a five or six-year deal, turning down the Mets’ initial offer, reportedly three years at $70M. Meanwhile, the other significant free agent first basemen (Walker, Santana, Goldschmidt) have already signed, while other teams shored up the position via trades, and still others are reportedly looking to internal candidates (Red Sox, Blue Jays), narrowing Alonso’s potential suitors significantly. That could bring Alonso’s price tag into something the Mariners should be willing to pay, continuing a trend from last off-season, when “the Boras Five” largely went unsigned during the off-season despite lofty projections for the likes of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and J.D. Martinez. The Giants were the big winners of the waiting game, betting correctly on a Chapman resurgence. Alonso doesn’t have Chapman’s defensive chops, but his standout tool is his power—power the Mariners could desperately use. Alonso’s “down” 2024 with a 122 wRC+ featured a .219 ISO, which would be good for 7th-best by a Mariner since 2019 (min. 500 PA). No, the Mariners ownership would not have to take out second mortgages on their Medina mansions to afford his services, nor would a deal even in the $80-90m range, especially with opt-outs, be enough to push Seattle beyond the exact mid-point in team payrolls at this point.
Pete Alonso belongs with the Mariners, who could rescue their dreadful off-season—one that’s seen them pilloried across the national media landscape for their penny-pinching ways—with one big swing. Of course it would be nice for M’s ownership to act in the team’s best interest, but even incorporating their penny-pinching, the reported budget of around $15m this winter doesn’t require massive stretching to fit him in. With plenty of high-leverage and playoffs experience and a powerful bat with sizzling bat speed, there’s no reason polar bears should not be native to the Pacific Northwest.