The Mariners are one of many teams in an awkward spot right now. After breaking their postseason drought last year, they had hoped for another competitive season in 2023, but it hasn’t quite lived up to expectations so far. They have played 100 games and are currently 50-50, putting them fourth in the American League West, 8.5 games back of the Rangers while also trailing the Astros and Angels. They are 5.5 games back of the Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot, with the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels in between.
That doesn’t necessarily mean all hope is lost, as those are surmountable obstacles (particularly the Wild Card chase). But their chances aren’t great at the moment, with the playoff odds at FanGraphs currently giving them an 11.6% chance of getting in while Baseball Prospectus has them at just 8.2%.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto discussed the club’s tough position last week, admitting that the Mariners have “not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end” and might have to decide whether it is “better to make a push for the ’23 season or to better situate ourselves for ’24.” He went on to say they probably wouldn’t make any big splash like last year’s Luis Castillo acquisition and that selling is on the table because they always have “one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller.”
There won’t be any need for the M’s to completely tear their roster down to the studs. The 2024 team will still feature a strong pitching staff, as their collective 3.80 earned run average is one of the five best in the majors and none of their hurlers are slated to reach free agency this winter. On the position player side, they will still be able to count on a core that consists of Julio Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, Cal Raleigh, Ty France and J.P. Crawford. They would have some offseason work to do, but there are enough ingredients there for them to see a path towards better results next year.
But as Dipoto mentioned, they may need to think about doing some selling, even if it’s not a total rebuild. The club has some impending free agents, but most of them won’t have much appeal. AJ Pollock is hitting just .173/.225/.323 and just landed on the injured list, while Kolten Wong’s offense is even worse at .162/.244/.229. Tom Murphy is hitting well this year but in a part-time backup role, and midseason trades of catchers can be tricky given the challenges of learning a new pitching staff.
They have one other impending free agent in Teoscar Hernández, which presents a difficult case for the club. He was just acquired from the Blue Jays in the offseason, with the M’s sending Erik Swanson and Adam Macko to Toronto for Hernández’s final arbitration season. His 2023 performance isn’t quite as rough as Pollock’s or Wong’s, but it’s been a disappointment nonetheless. Through the end of May, he was hitting .230/.268/.396 for a wRC+ of 85. He took off in June, slashing .303/.376/.573 for a 162 wRC+, but he’s crashed back to earth in July with a line of .203/.259/.316.
Overall, Hernández has a season-long batting line of .242/.293/.421. That amounts to a wRC+ of 99, indicating he’s been just a hair below league average. But the Mariners were surely hoping for something better than just average, especially because Hernández slashed .283/.333/.519 with the Jays from 2020 to 2022 for a 132 wRC+.
Defensive metrics have never like Hernández much, but are being kinder in 2023. He has -18 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but +7 this year. Outs Above Average has him at +2 in 2023 but -22 overall. His Ultimate Zone Rating is -18.3 for his career but 3.7 this year. Defensive metrics tend to be fickle from year to year, so it’s more likely this is a blip than that he’s suddenly turned himself into an above-average defender in his age-30 season. But he definitely has a bit of speed, having swiped 40 bags in his career and five this year.
If Hernández were playing up to his previous form, he would be a lock to both receive and reject a qualifying offer. In that case, the Mariners could have simply held onto him and taken their shot at contention, at least knowing that they could recoup a draft pick if he were to sign somewhere else. Now it’s less clear, since he’s performing closer to an average major leaguer. He might be tempted to take a QO and try to re-enter free agency after a stronger platform in 2024.
Spending roughly $20MM, which is where the QO will likely end up, on a player like Hernández wouldn’t necessarily be a disaster for the Mariners. Pollock and Wong departing will take $17MM off the books, and Hernández himself is making $14MM this year. But they will also see Castillo’s salary jump from $10MM this year (plus a $7MM signing bonus) to $22.75MM next year. Rodríguez will see his salary climb from $4MM to $10MM. Marco Gonzales, Evan White, Dylan Moore and Andrés Muñoz will also get raises in their contracts, and arbitration raises will be due to players like France and Paul Sewald.
Like just about every club, the Mariners will be hoping to keep their options open for Shohei Ohtani this winter, not to mention all the other potential free agents. Perhaps the prospect of putting close to $20MM in front of Hernández on day one of the offseason isn’t as attractive as it once seemed a few months ago.
But despite his middling season, he might still have significant trade appeal. The lists of upcoming free agents and potential trade candidates are both heavy on pitching, with few impact bats thought to be available. Perhaps some clubs around the league believe in Hernández enough to bet on a bounceback, especially with the dearth of other available options. His walk rate and hard hit rate are both down this year, but his rate of fly balls turning into home runs is also a big drop, sitting at 16.2% this year compared to 23.2% in the previous three seasons. Maybe moving away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park would help him get back on track.
Taking all those factors into consideration, it’s likely a tricky decision for Dipoto and his team. If they decide that 2023 isn’t their year, then trading him is probably the best thing to do since he’s an impending free agent and can’t help you next year. If he were to accept a qualifying offer, they’d essentially be back to square one but with a larger financial commitment for 2024. If there’s a compelling offer on the table now, perhaps it’s better to just take that and start focusing on next year’s club.
On the other hand, they are already working with an uninspiring offense. The Mariners’ collective batting line of .231/.311/.391 amounts to a wRC+ of 100, or exactly average. The corner outfield spots are a particular issue, given the struggles of both Pollock and Jarred Kelenic. The latter of those two cooled off after a hot start and recently put himself out of action for the next four to six weeks by kicking a water cooler and breaking a bone in his foot.
Subtracting Hernández from the corner outfield mix would only make matters worse, and the Mariners would then be looking to replace him in right field while facing the same weak market as every other club in the league. Although the club made the postseason last year, that’s still just one playoff appearance since 2001. If they were to hold Hernández and he gets hot for the final months of the season, he could help them compete and perhaps even get enough juice to reject a qualifying offer and net the club an extra draft pick.
Trading Hernández also comes with the risk of intangible results, in a negative way. Teams have often tried to balance buying and selling and been surprised by the effect it had on the clubhouse. The Brewers trading Josh Hader last year was one such example, but the same thing happened to the Mariners the year before. They traded closer Kendall Graveman and reliever Rafael Montero to the Astros for infielder Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith. They later backfilled their closer spot by acquiring Diego Castillo, hoping that the Castillo/Toro combination would be better than Graveman himself. But it didn’t work out and the club missed the playoffs as the Graveman trade had a negative impact on the club’s spirits, something Dipoto addressed in the link above.
Perhaps trading Hernández would hurt the club both on the field and in the dugout. The Mariners likely wouldn’t care so much about that if they were well out of contention and firmly in the seller camp. But if they are trying to strike a balance between buying and selling, the downside of the trade is higher than the upside, though that would surely depend on the offers. The Hader trade certainly hurt the Brewers last year but they were later able to trade one of the pieces in that deal, Esteury Ruiz, for catcher William Contreras. He’s having an excellent season and seems to be a long-term piece for Milwaukee, who are in first place in the National League Central.
We’ll open this one up for debate among MLBTR readers. Should the Mariners risk punting their season by sending Hernández elsewhere and taking whatever pieces they can get to help them in future seasons? Or, should they hold and hope for a late surge to get back in the race and cement his status as a QO recipient? Have your say in the poll below!
(Link to poll for app users)
Take Our Poll
(function(d,c,j){if(!d.getElementById(j)){var pd=d.createElement(c),s;pd.id=j;pd.src=’https://cdn.mlbtraderumors.com/wp-content/plugins/polldaddy/js/polldaddy-shortcode.js’;s=d.getElementsByTagName(c)[0];s.parentNode.insertBefore(pd,s);} else if(typeof jQuery !==’undefined’)jQuery(d.body).trigger(‘pd-script-load’);}(document,’script’,’pd-polldaddy-loader’));