The Mariners head north to play the Blue Jays over the weekend.
Given that two of the Mariners losses in San Francisco a few weeks ago were walk-offs and that they’ve gone 7-2 in the time since that point, it’s possible that series is the outlier in what’s mostly been a solid start to the season. This roster isn’t built to win a bunch of blowouts. Close games are by design and 15 of their 19 games so far have been decided by three or fewer runs. With the margins so thin, we’re bound to see some wild swings between hot and cold. The series in Cincinnati exposed how desperately Seattle needs some bullpen reinforcements — Matt Brash is probably a week away from being activated but I think they’ll need more than that.
The Blue Jays entered the season in a really awkward position. They missed out on signing Shohei Ohtani last year and then missed out on Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki this offseason despite aggressive pursuit of all three superstars. To make matters more complicated, both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were entering their final years of team control in 2025, giving Toronto some urgency to either sign them to extensions or figure out a way to build one last contending roster before they left in free agency. The Jays managed to thread the needle on both points; Vladito signed a massive $500 million extension a week into the regular season and the roster was bolstered by bringing in guys like Anthony Santander, Max Scherzer, Andrés Giménez, and Jeff Hoffman. They’re in a much better position now have been one of the better teams in the AL to start the season.
You can quibble about the size of the extension Vladito signed — I wouldn’t be comfortable paying that much to a bat-only first baseman — but the reality is that he was essentially Toronto’s only option to secure a superstar the foreseeable future after they whiffed on Ohtani, Soto, and Sasaki. And to be clear, Guerrero’s bat is probably good enough to anchor the lineup for half a decade or so before he starts to decline. Bichette had a horrible season last year thanks to a series of injuries but it looks like he’s bounced back nicely. The new additions to the lineup — Santander and Giménez — were solid bits of business; the former provides another big bat to supplement George Springer’s aging production while the latter upgrades their infield defense significantly while still having some offensive upside.
Probable Pitchers
Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
It took a while for Bowden Francis to find his breakthrough moment, but it finally happened over the final two months of the season last year. From August on, he was nearly unhittable, producing a 1.53 ERA while striking out 56 in 59 innings. He was never a highly regarded prospect and had only had experience as a long reliever in the big leagues up to that point. The key to unlocking that two-month hot streak was a new splitter that he picked up from his teammates during the offseason. As you’d expect, he seriously outperformed his peripherals during those nine starts, but the contact management the split provided him and the command of his repertoire give him a better outlook than he had when he started the season.
José Berríos has settled in as a mid-rotation innings eater in his age-31 season, and because he debuted so young, this is also his tenth major league season. He’s made 32 starts in all six of the last full seasons providing metronomic production that’s so rare in the modern era. He hasn’t risen to the full ceiling that his early career success portended and that’s mostly due to a repertoire that hasn’t really evolved as the game has. His four-seamer and sinker are both pretty mediocre as far as pitch characteristics go and his curveball/slurve looks really good in the highlight reels but it’s actually pretty easy for batters to pick up. He’s really shifted his pitch mix over the last few seasons to emphasize his sinker over his four-seamer which helps him manage the loud contact he allows but limits his ability to generate big strikeout totals.
Easton Lucas has bounced around between five different organizations since being drafted in 2019 and was thrust into a starting role for the Blue Jays after Max Scherzer went down with a thumb injury in his first start of the year. Lucas responded by pitching two straight shutouts in his first two starts of the season before getting blown up for eight runs in his last start against the Braves. He throws a riding four-seamer up in the zone to earn whiffs while peppering the outside corner with both a traditional gyro slider and a bigger sweeper. He’s also got a changeup to keep right-handed batters at bay, but it’s his worst pitch per Stuff+ and it hasn’t really fooled anyone so far.
The Big Picture:
Say it with me: lastros, Lastros, LASTROS!