Mariners set a record during 6-5 loss to Texas

Shoutout to Ty France

People talk a lot about the Three True Outcomes. And the Mariners offense has a pretty impressive history with them:

• In 1997, they broke the MLB record for most home runs in a season, a record that stood for more than 20 years, through the steroid era and the pre-humidor Coors Field, all the way until Rob Manfred started messing with the baseballs.
• In 2000, they drew 775 walks, the most since 1949, and no team has gotten more free passes since.
• They’re the only franchise with three appearances in the top 10 for most strikeouts in a season (1,603 in 2023 (2nd), 1,581 in 2019 (T-6th), and their seven today move this year’s squad into ninth place all time with 1,573).

Taken as a whole, it’s a history unmatched by any other ballclub. But there’s a hidden fourth true outcome: the hit by pitch.

I understand why it’s so often omitted since it’s rare and it can feel like a fluke. In reality though, it has all the characteristics of what we’re trying to do when we separate out the TTO. The primary thing we’re doing is trying to isolate the outcomes for which the defense isn’t involved, and so is a “pure” or “true” outcome between the pitcher and hitter. And while it can indeed feel like a fluke, it’s not. HBP rates are sticky for both pitchers and hitters. Not that it matters, but it’s also interesting that HBPs have also soared during the same era as strikeouts, walks, and home runs, consistently accounting for more than 1% of plate appearances since 2018.

So mazel tov to the Mariners offense for continuing their True Outcome dominance today by setting the new live-ball era record for most HBP in a season with 113.

The tying HBP came in the first inning as Cal Raleigh got bonked. This was fitting since he was DHing today and so was in danger of going an entire game without wearing a baseball. The record-breaking boop came an inning later, as J.P. Crawford got on base for free to set up the game’s first run on a Dylan Moore RBI. Yet another inning later, Cal would exact his revenge with a home run to bring the score to 2-0, where it would stay for about an hour.

During that hour, Josh Smith got hit with one of Bryan Woo’s pitches on his ankle. But rather than getting on base for free, he was charged with a strike since he had not pulled back his bunt attempt. He was somewhat upset about this, which is entirely in keeping with the Mariners’ HBP track record. Despite a reputation among fans of certain cheating franchises, the Mariners pitching staff stands in stark contrast to the hitters when it comes to plunks. Take a look for yourself:

Woo has actually only hit three batters all season, with an HBP% about half the league average. He’s much more of a pitch-to-contact guy, as he’s come to rely on his fastball coming in high in the zone from a low arm slot to induce weak contact. That’s mostly worked for him, and it worked through five almost perfect innings today, relying on his defense to make some good plays.

Entering the sixth, he’d only racked up three strikeouts but hadn’t walked anybody and had kept the Rangers to an xBA of .216. Then he ran into some trouble compounded by bad sequencing luck. After allowing three singles in a row, his worst pitch came at the worst time, and suddenly he’d given up four runs. What seemed like a bounceback from his thrashing against the Yankees quickly became another clunker.

It was hardly a nail in the coffin though, since even after that onslaught the Mariners kept a 5-4 lead. That fifth run, what’s been a crucial number for the Mariners this year, came courtesy of a Víctor Robles Special. After a two-RBI single and knocking starter Andrew Heaney out of the game, he wreaked havoc on the bullpen too, stealing second base with an aggressive slide. Then, bouncing around behind old friend Matt Festa, he drew a throw back to second. He was pretty far off the bag and should have been out. But forcing the defense to make a play is how magic happens. For the second game in a row, he took advantage of a poor throw and scored from second, showboating a bit on his way down the third-base line. The true outcomes might make analysis easier by stripping down the number of factors at play, but they’re way less fun that plays like this. Three of the four true outcomes are good for hitters, but the 2024 Mariners have been woefully short on pressuring the defense. So Robles picks up today’s Sun Hat Award for noteworthy individual contribution to a game. Plays like his are what the award was invented for.

Sadly, the lead would not last. Despite losses from Minnesota and Houston creating some room for the Mariners in the playoff hunt, the Mariners bullpen blew the lead, ultimately getting walked off by Marcus Semien. Just like an HBP, the 2024 Mariners are usually painful to watch.