2024 Record: 78-84, 3rd place in the AL West
Key Additions: C Kyle Higashioka, DH/OF Joc Pederson, RHP Adrian Houser, RHP Jacob Webb, 1B Jake Burger, C Tucker Barnhart, LHP Robert Garcia, RHP Shawn Armstrong, RHP Chris Martin, LHP Hoby Milner
Key Subtractions: LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP José Leclerc, RHP Max Scherzer, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, RHP Kirby Yates, C Carson Kelly, LHP Andrew Chafin, RHP David Robertson, RHP Jose Ureña
The 2023 Texas Rangers were a bittersweet vindication of “Trying Works” fans, as the cops of the Lone Star State toppled the Houston Astros in an epic seven game ALCS en route to the organization’s first World Series title, stomping the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks. A stars and scrubs design, the kings of Arlington tumbled back to earth in 2024, facing major regression at a number of key positions and less prodigious injury fortune on their pitching staff. It’s with the pitchers that we’ll begin our threat assessment today. It’s a group that’s seen less rotation turnover than in recent years, but still remains the biggest question mark in the Texas projection.
Pitchers
2024 Team Pitching Statistics: 4.37/4.32 ERA/FIP, 13.8% K-BB%, 11.7 fWAR (24th)
This is where the make and/or break (literally) will come for Texas once again. In 2023, they got 14.3/13.3 fWAR/bWAR out of their pitching staff, a middle of the pack performance that was a sturdy enough lifeboat of flotsam to allow their potent lineup to bash opponents heads in like Obelix. But in 2024, they got just 7.1 bWAR from the same group, a more apt representation of the precipitous drop off that came from 330.2 IP of mediocrity from Nathan Eovaldi and the now-departed Heaney, and no other pitcher reaching 103.0 frames. This group is reasonably consistent contractually, but they’re hoping for a greater increase in innings from internal options than perhaps any other contender.
That’s reflected in the projections, which see Eovaldi and Jon Gray as more or less reprising their roles as respectable No. 3-4 starters whose health no longer goes 180-200 innings, if it ever consistently did. Almost everything consequential in this campaign comes down to the capacity of three men who all had Tommy John surgery in 2023 – Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, and Kumar Rocker. They combined for less than 100 innings a year ago across all levels, but are projected for at least that many innings each in 2025. For some, that might be enough to discount the foremost Alamo-rememberers in MLB. However, deGrom’s cameo a year ago is unfortunately enough to strike terror in me at least. I’ve never seen a better pitcher when healthy than deGrom, and it’s not so much that I anticipate a year of health as that I fear if his healthy stretches primarily include the times the M’s come to town. Not on that same level, Rocker nonetheless returned to the caliber of pitcher that understandably was a top-10 pick a few years back, putting the top of the Texas rotation in somewhat more formidable stead. Between Rocker, Leiter, Bradford, and swingman Dane Dunning, Texas has a familiar cohort of filler with some chops to stave off an injury or two. As we’ve seen in both 2022 and 2024, however, they’re dabbling in a collection of arms who might well go in for a group discount at the chop shop.
Where the Rangers really fell off a cliff a year ago was in the ‘pen, with a group that was both in total and by rate one of the worst in the sport. The Rangers leaned on their relievers for the 11th-most innings in the sport, but got a dismal 4.41 ERA to show for it and a 25th in MLB 2.0 fWAR overall. In an effort to address this, they’ve added two impact arms in the pen in Martin and Garcia, though they’ll have a tall task ahead in replacing Yates, Robertson, Lecler, Ureña, and Matt Festa, who collectively made up nearly all the decent innings pitched. In fact, at least by projection, Dunning and Latz are the only returning arms expected to handle a significant role. Of note is also Jacob Sborz, who will come off injury in the second half, though a reasonably deep collection of non-roster invitees including veteran RHPs Jesse Chavez and JT Chargois, as well as promising prospect Emiliano Teodo who will be discussed in greater depth in the prospects piece.
2025 FanGraphs Depth Charts projections: 4.36/4.39 ERA/FIP, 8.4-3.4 K/9-BB/9, 16.4 fWAR (7th)
Ultimately, the improvement efforts in the bullpen are worthwhile but not immense. This is a team that will live or die by its rotation, which has a steeper cliff from its top arms to the next folks up than it can afford to handle a tumble off of. However, the projection is potent because a Texas team that holds itself together for even part of the season is a dangerous one.