Proximate threats hold back a fallow future.
Organizational Rankings
Baseball America: 29th
Baseball Prospectus: 21st
MLB Pipeline: 29th
If there’s any team that’s proven you don’t need a high draft pick in MLB to scout and develop a future star, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers. If there’s a team that hasn’t handled their self-inflicted adversity (aka the light rap on the hand of a few lost draft picks for two years for cheating their way to a championship), it’s the Houston Astros. GM Dana Brown may have more success in his past two seasons of selections, with some talented selections still in the system, but the James Click era from 2020-2022 following the suspension of Jeff Luhnow was not a prosperous one in terms of selecting quality big leaguers.
However, Houston has either rightly recognized what they haven’t had ahead of the rest of the league, or been fortunate to simply beguile the only GM they needed to in trading from their farm to improve their consistent World Series contending rosters. Korey Lee, JB Bukauskas, Seth Beer, and Drew Gilbert are all first round picks since 2017 dealt to improve the big league club, as were later round picks and prospects from other realms who popped up with promise like Wilyer Abreu, Chayce McDermott, Abraham Toro, Jake Bloss, Ryan Clifford, Will Wagner, and Joey Loperfido. Those moves almost all improved the roster in the short term, and only a couple have thus far become meaningful big leaguers, though several still have time.
The other impressive (or obnoxious) trait Houston has demonstrated is a knack for squeezing solid production out of unheralded prospects. Ronel Blanco was a waiver claim, while Spencer Arrighetti, Yainer Diaz, and better part of their pitching staff at this point were either not top tier prospects per evaluators for a good chunk of time or were late blooming big leaguers. The Houston system may have some players like that still, indeed there are a few promising arms including Ryan Forcucci.
Brice Matthews and catcher Walker Janek were Houston’s two most recent 1st rounders, but the latter is in the category of “high probability big leaguer” slightly more than “likely star,” while Matthew’s could be absolutely anything. How much contact can he actually make to balance out strikeout rates that ballooned past 33%? We’ll see this year, but even with a speedy ascent up the system I’m skeptical he is a major big league presence in 2025.
There’s also promise from corner bat Zach Dezenzo, who’s likely to have either a camp-breaking role or soon return to the bigs. He’s got some Ryon Healy to him, but that was a dangerous bat for at least a year or two.
Name to Know for 2025 – 3B/cOF Cam Smith
However, the universal top player in the system at present is a young man they received alongside immediate big leaguers Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski. That man is Cameron Vaughn Smith, the pharmacist who may serve the Mariners no shortage of bitter pills in the coming years. Smith’s profile isn’t vastly different from Matthews’, though he’s working in at corner outfield spots to accelerate his ability to hit the big league roster and fill a dubious outfield consortium.
It doesn’t take a seasoned scout to identify the tools that lead Smith’s profile. Like the Black Eyed Peas, he’s got that Boom, Boom, Pow. Smith’s skillset will rise or fall based on his capacity for contact, in a somewhat similar capacity to last week’s spotlight player for Texas, Sebastian Walcott.
Smith was the 14th pick in the 2024 draft by the Cubs, and the expectation of helping justify the trading away of star Kyle Tucker is not exactly an easy expectation. However, Smith’s swing is a compact, punchy hack that I quite like the look of, while his physicality is significant enough to make that into not just a power threat, but a significant slugger. There’s some Domingo Santana in his inside-out swing at times, as he doesn’t actually pull the ball at the typical clip expected of a home run hitter. Defensively, Smith may be a bit bereft, but the former Florida State Seminole may slug enough to make that inconsequential.