Lookout Landing’s 2025 Prospect Rankings: #11 1B Tyler Locklear

A big man looking for a bounce back

Welcome back to the LL prospect rankings! If you want to check out last Thursday’s instantiation of our series about Michael Morales, you can do so here. If you’d like to access the entire series we’ve put together thus far, click here.

Upon being drafted in the second round of the 2022 draft, Tyler Locklear had little trouble against opposing pitchers, coasting his way through every level he played at and working his way on to the outside of some top 100 prospect lists with little more than a two week road bump here and there. It would always be tough for a first baseman to crack the “elite” prospect status, however Locklear’s production was simply undeniable. He walked a ton, avoided strikeouts at an above average clip, made consistent contact, and had plenty of power to be a middle-of-the-order run producer. Last year, however, his ever-steady production took a dip. Perhaps it was his somewhat frantic and hasty big league promotion. Maybe the funk of PCL pitching got to him. Maybe he just had a down year. Whatever it was, it was undoubtedly a disappointing year for the first baseman, who now finds himself on the outside looking in on the organizational top ten.

This might be interesting to hear after talking down his season last year, but I’m not particularly close to hitting the panic button on Locklear. Even with his numbers taking a substantial dip in an offensive environment that should cause his number to explode, a lot of his more “intangible” stats weren’t terribly far off from his career norms. His chase rate was up this season and is perhaps the biggest red flag from last season, however he still hits the ball as hard as anyone and his quality of contact was above average. In fact, Locklear’s chase rates continued to climb as the season went on, spiking towards the end of the year. This is purely speculation, but I can’t help but feel as though the mental toll of his promotion-demotion charade impacted his play on the field, leading him to press at the plate and come out of his typical game. It could be off base as to what actually happened, but I think it’s more than plausible.

From my vantage point, I think Locklear is closer to the player he was through his first two seasons than he was the last half-ish of last season. I’m less confident he’ll be a high average guy given his whiff% trending the wrong direction, but his power is yet to leave him and he remains relatively athletic for his position. This is no Ty France on the base paths; Locklear’s quick enough to not be an anchor in the run game.

I’m of the belief that Locklear entering this season with light expectations on the big league side of things will help propel him into finding his old self and revitalizing his future outlook, but the shortcomings of last season have to be taken into account. You’re ultimately hoping he can turn into a lineup fixture like Rhys Hoskins was for the Phillies, but if we’re being more realistic, I think any production above average would have to be seen in a positive light. There’s still plenty of reason to believe Locklear will be a productive major leaguer, but he’s got to show his negative trends from last season have been thwarted. If he continues to chase out of the zone and provide only marginal offensive upside, his big league future will undoubtedly be in question. I understand if you’re down on him after his brief but rocky big league stint, but I’m choosing to wear my rose colored glasses and believe.