Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Junior Caminero is one of MLB’s most prolific power-hitting prospects. The 21-year-old made his 2024 debut in August and produced at above league average level, slashing .248/.299/.424 (105 wRC+) across 177 plate appearances. Across that short time, he showcased some of the monster power upside that we knew he had and some plate discipline concerns that could limit him. But with his immense power and solid strikeout rates, he possesses the ideal characteristics of some of the best power bats. Let’s dive into his profile.
Inside the Metrics of the Rays’ Emerging Third Baseman
Batted Ball
Caminero immediately showed off his 80-grade raw power with solid contact ability. His exit velocity and bat speed numbers are already among the best in baseball. Caminero’s surface level numbers were not super impressive,, which can be attributed to his pull rate. The 37% mark he posted in 2024 was the lowest he had at any level during his career. Furthermore, he was in just the 16th percentile for pulled fly ball rate (. Despite that, his home run power to center and the opposite field is special.
Junior Caminero ties this game up in the 9th
pic.twitter.com/14xXItjcgY
— MLB (@MLB) August 25, 2024
Here are some of his other contact quality numbers:
| Max EV | 116.3 (98th percentile) |
| 90th Percentile EV | 108.2 (96th percentile) |
| Damage/BBE | 25.2 (78th percentile) |
| Barrel% | 11.1% |
| HardHit% | 47.6% |
Everything could come together for Caminero in 2025, and he could deliver something close to a 40 home run season. His pull rate should be expected to normalize as he continues to find his timing against big league pitching and allow him to maximize his excellent raw power.
Plate Skills & Plate Discipline
An element of Caminero’s game that could be cleaned up is his discipline. His 18th percentile Chase rate (39%) can mitigate some of his quality of contact. But Caminero’s aggressiveness can actually be viewed in a positive light, as he ranks very highly in Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric evaluating a hitter’s swing choice on a more nuanced level. Caminero ranked in the 98th percentile in SEAGER in 2024. That bodes well for his power potential.
Comparatively, if we were to simply look at his Z-Swing% minus his O-Swing% (Z-O%), Caminero is among the lowest hitters. However, SEAGER predicts future power much better than simple Z-O%. So Caminero will continue to have a higher Chase rate. But it is not as big of a big concern in the short term. Additionally, his swing decisions look favorable during his short time in 2024. But he does still struggle handling secondary offerings (19th percentile Whiff rate), and did not compensate with strong quality of contact numbers (~.265 wOBACON). The downside of course to his aggressive approach is the lower walk rate as he will continue to be below average in that regard.
Perhaps the piece that enables Caminero to possess all the upside in the world is his ability to make contact at more than a reasonable rate. Sure, there is risk that his strikeout rate balloons as his 14.1% swinging strike rate could suggest. However, across multiple different minor league stops for varying durations, he never struck out more than 25% of the time all while maintaining the huge slugging numbers. There is enough evidence to support an average future hit tool and prop up the batting average.
Outlook
The upside case for the 21-year-old Junior Caminero is obvious as an exciting young hitter. There are just enough warts early on in his career to minimize the hype and not let his price in fantasy baseball reach too high yet. That could obviously change as the season nears. He has all the makings of a future superstar. Stylistically, he profiles similarly to slugging third basemen Austin Riley and Rafael Devers. Devers feels appropriate because he has maintained a high Chase rate throughout his big league career, but his hit tool is stronger than Caminero. Riley does not chase as much, but the hit tool and struggles against secondaries is comparable with Caminero. Overall, Junior Caminero has an exciting profile and is poised to breakout in 2025.
Main Photo Credits: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
The post Inside the Metrics of the Rays’ Emerging Third Baseman appeared first on Last Word On Baseball.