The Mariners head out on their first road trip of the season.
It’s hard to say any game in early April is a must-win, but Wednesday’s game against the Tigers was as close as you could come. Facing down a three-game sweep with the reigning Cy Young award winner on the mound, the M’s managed to find a way to eke out a victory and ended their opening homestand with a 3-4 record. A couple of big series against the Astros and Rangers loom on the horizon next week, but first they’ll head to San Francisco for a quick weekend getaway.
The Giants have been stuck in the mire for the last three seasons after their surprise run to claim the NL West division title in 2021. They hired franchise legend Buster Posey to run their baseball operations this offseason in the hopes that he could break them out of their mediocrity. His first move was to sign Willy Adames to the largest free agent contract in franchise history. San Francisco hasn’t been shy about spending big on free agents the last few years, though their hit rate has been less than ideal. Unfortunately, they’re stuck in the highly competitive NL West, which means that even though they’ve gotten off to a hot start this year, they’re still sitting behind the Dodgers and Padres in the standings with the D-Backs in hot pursuit too.
With the weight of his massive contract weighing on him, Adames is being counted on to anchor this lineup. He put up some solid seasons in Milwaukee and has improved his plate discipline since getting out from under the bright lights in Tropicana Field. He’ll have a solid supporting cast surrounding him too. Matt Chapman’s first year as a Giant worked out swimmingly, Jung Hoo Lee is healthy after his shoulder injury last year, and Heliot Ramos’s breakout is one of the few development wins out of San Francisco’s farm system. And while he can’t really produce at the plate, there’s a pretty good argument to be made that Patrick Bailey is the best defensive catcher in baseball, which provides all sorts of value to the team.
Probable Pitchers
Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
Age finally caught up with Justin Verlander last year. He had shown some cracks in 2023, but he slipped to a 5.48 ERA and a 4.78 FIP in 90.1 innings last year while suffering through separate neck and shoulder injuries. His fastball velocity dipped below 94 mph on average and his secondary pitches were all a little less effective as a result. Verlander signed a one-year deal with the Giants this offseason in what might be his final season in the big leagues. There are so few pitchers who have been able to pitch effectively past 40, and since Verlander relies so heavily on his once elite fastball, he’s more prone to age-related decline than a soft-tosser like Jamie Moyer. To survive, Verlander will need to adapt his repertoire as his heater continues to deteriorate, and we might have seen a glimpse of one of those changes when he debuted a new sweeper this spring.
The Mariners will counter by calling up Luis F. Castillo to make a spot start, pushing Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo back a day in their rotation. The F-version of Castillo was a non-roster invitee this spring after being signed to a minor league deal over the winter. He spent the last two seasons in Japan to some success and has finally broken back into the big leagues with the M’s.
Robbie Ray returned from his Tommy John surgery last summer and looked healthy until he strained his hamstring during an August start against the Mariners. He struck out a third of the batters he faced during his seven starts last year and both of his breaking balls looked as nasty as ever. He ditched the sinker that had gotten him into so much trouble while with the Mariners and has decided to emphasize his changeup more often this spring. That pitch should do well to help him neutralize right-handed batters, though it’s clearly not as effective as his breaking balls.
Jordan Hicks made the transition from high-leverage bullpen work to the rotation last year. The biggest concern was how his elite velocity would hold up under the increased strain of a starter’s workload. It didn’t. After averaging in the triple-digits with his fastball as a reliever, a drop was bound to happen, but his sinker’s velocity fell more than five ticks as a starter. He eventually hit a wall, injured his shoulder, and then was relegated back to the bullpen after returning. The good news is that his sinker averaged 98 mph in his first start this year, a good sign for his health and a testament to the strengthening work he put in during the offseason. Along with his extremely hard sinker, he also features a splitter and sweeper, giving his arsenal both swing-and-miss weapons and pitches to induce groundball contact.
The Big Picture:
It’s still far too early to take anything away from the standings, but we do have to acknowledge the Giants for sweeping the Astros earlier this week.