SEATTLE – This is not an invitation to believe.
It’s not an argument for why an excruciatingly inactive offseason is somehow acceptable, as a fan base’s frustrating waiting game enters extra innings. It’s not an attempt to absolve an ownership group that, given a golden ticket, seems content to squander it. It’s not a pitch for how the Seattle Mariners have actually improved by guarding their wallets and swallowing the status quo.
It’s not any of that.
Despite the above …
The Mariners could be good.
This is, after all, a team that won 85 games and finished one game out of the final American League wild-card spot in 2024 – and brings back just about every impactful piece to that puzzle. It’s a team that grossly underachieved, submerged in a sea of strikeouts and bullpen injuries. It’s a team that, with two more measly bats, could crystallize into instant World Series contenders.
Which, again, makes this offseason (and last offseason, and the previous offseason) even more maddening.
So this is not me telling you how to spend your time and tears and money. At this point, maybe you don’t even want the Mariners to win, as a playoff return would reward owners Chris Larson and John Stanton, etc., for their stubborn stinginess. Maybe you’d rather cancel ROOT Sports in quiet rebellion. Maybe, after decades of disappointment, your capacity for patience is kaput.
But if, despite it all, you do choose to believe … here are the reasons you would.
The rotation returns
There are reasons to believe this is the best rotation in baseball.
After all, the Mariners’ armada – Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller – led MLB in the following categories in 2024:
• ERA (3.63).
• Quality starts (92, 12 more than No. 2 Philadelphia).
• Quality start percentage (57%).
• Opponent batting average (.229).
• WHIP (1.09).
• Opponent batting average on balls in play (.271).
• Walks per nine innings (1.93).
• Walk percentage (5.3%).
Of that group, only the 32-year-old Castillo could conceivably be exiting his prime, though a 3.64 ERA in 30 starts and 1751/3 innings is unconvincing evidence. Gilbert (27), Kirby (26), Miller (26) and Woo (24) are again expected to excel, with Emerson Hancock (25) a capable insurance policy.
Yes, a little run support would go a long way. But regardless, this starting rotation should almost single-handedly lift the Mariners’ floor, keeping them in contention.
Hello, Julio
There are reasons to believe Julio Rodriguez can still be a superstar.
Namely, a couple of numbers. Rodriguez’s average exit velocity (91.7 mph) and hard-hit rate (48.4%) were first among Mariners regulars in 2024. Though he strikes out too much and beats too many balls into the dirt: Julio hits it hard.
But can Julio hit it higher? His ground-ball rate last season (44.6%) was well above the MLB average (41.2%), and he managed just 20 homers and a microscopic 17 doubles (191st in MLB). His fly-ball (26.2%) and line-drive rate (23.0%) landed below league average as well.
But a swing path certainly seems correctable, converting previous groundouts into doubles, homers and RBI for a team in desperate need. Julio’s dramatic divide between home and road production – a .242/.291/.364 slash line at T-Mobile Park in 2024, and .302/.355/.450 everywhere else – must also be improved.
Speaking of: we saw obvious improvement in September, as Julio slashed .328/.349/.546 with seven homers and 22 RBI in his final 26 games. The organization continues to put its two-time All-Star in a precarious position, asking a 24-year-old to carry an unimposing supporting cast.
Still, the presence of Edgar Martinez (now senior director for hitting strategy) and new manager Dan Wilson seemed to pay dividends.
Not just for Seattle’s possible superstar in center field.
The Dan Wilson effect
There are reasons to believe Dan Wilson can make a difference.
The former Mariners catcher compiled a 21-13 record after taking the reins from Scott Servais (who went 64-64 in 2024) on Aug. 22. The team made comprehensive strides in September – recording a .264/.347/.433 slash line with 50 doubles, 33 homers and 130 RBIs (all season bests) in their last 26 games.
Now, you can argue just how much a manager matters. You can also dismiss those upticks as a patch of sunshine preceding an eclipse.
But it’s reasonable to expect shortstop J.P. Crawford and left fielder Randy Arozarena to return to their norms. Though he has produced a .247/.339/.369 slash line across six seasons in Seattle, the 30-year-old Crawford cratered to .202/.304/.321 in 2024. Arozarena endured a similar swoon, slashing .219/.332/.388 after earning an All-Star nod in 2023.
Cal Raleigh, meanwhile, has posted career highs in homers and RBIs in each of his four seasons, a productive pillar in a lethargic lineup. The 28-year-old catcher paced the Mariners in homers (28), RBIs (100) and WAR (4.7) in 2024, and he shows no signs of stopping.
There are also reasons to believe in the (admittedly underwhelming) timeshare at first base – where Luke Raley slashed .255/.333/.497 with 20 homers and 54 RBI against right-handed pitchers in 2024, while new signee Donovan Solano slashed .302/.373/.443 against lefties. Though the 37-year-old Solano owns just 40 homers in 11 MLB campaigns, he hasn’t hit worse than .280 in his past six seasons.
These Mariners most need to get on base, by any means necessary.
Can Wilson, Edgar and hitting coach Kevin Seitzer unlock the offense? Can they help Victor Robles – a career .247 hitter – replicate last season’s eruption (.328/.393/.467 in 77 games in Seattle)? Can they salvage something from 34-year-old veterans Mitch Garver and Mitch Haniger? Can the front office find overdue reinforcements at second and third base?
Remember, with even an average offense, the Mariners should excel.
A bullpen rebound
Granted, the numbers are not as distressing as one might expect. In 2024, Seattle’s bullpen sat second in MLB in opponent batting average (.213), fourth in strikeout rate (25.9%) and ninth in ERA (3.71). That’s despite significant injuries to a trio of expected staples – Matt Brash, Gregory Santos and Gabe Speier. Yimi Garcia – intended as an impact trade deadline acquisition – was also lost for the season due to an elbow injury instead.
The result was a bullpen that struggled to pass the baton to steady closer Andrés Muñoz, surrendering a 4.67 ERA in the seventh inning and 28 eighth-inning homers (29th in MLB).
Fast-forward, and Brash – who led the Mariners with 78 relief appearances in 2023 before undergoing Tommy John surgery last May – could be back by the end of April. Santos and Speier are again healthy, and Collin Snider and Troy Taylor are hoping to build on encouraging campaigns.
The exclamation point, of course, is Muñoz – who earned 22 saves with a 2.12 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 60 appearances and 591/3 innings.
So, that’s the recipe.
If Seattle’s starting pitchers predictably produce, and if Rodriguez returns to a superstar trajectory, and if the Mariners lineup benefits from an altered approach, and if a revitalized bullpen passes the baton …
(Or, heck, if the Mariners stunningly sign Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso or Anthony Santander …)
Then, sure, this team can contend.