SEATTLE – It’s too early for conclusions.
But not questions.
On Thursday, the Mariners flipped a lost lead into a frantic rally, tallying six runs in the ninth and 10th innings of an 11-7 victory over the Cincinnati Reds. The rubber match gave Seattle its third consecutive series win, after taking five of six against AL West rivals Houston and Texas.
With an incomplete rotation, a flawed lineup and a wobbly bullpen … the Mariners are rolling.
At 10-9, Seattle inched above .500 for the first time since winning on opening day exactly three weeks earlier.
So here are three big questions from a wild three weeks.
Can the rotation endure until Kirby returns?
While George Kirby is trending toward a May return from shoulder inflammation, his spot in the Mariners’ rotation has been fitful to fill. Emerson Hancock was bombarded for seven hits and six earned runs in his first start of the season before being demoted to Triple-A. His successor, Luis F. Castillo, was similarly ineffective – surrendering 12 hits and six earned runs in two starts and just seven innings.
The 25-year-old Hancock’s return to the rotation Thursday was more encouraging, as he allowed just two earned runs (via a first-inning homer) in five innings.
But even a healthy Kirby doesn’t diminish the need for dependable depth.
Remember that Bryan Woo threw just 121⅓ innings last season with occasional injuries, and Bryce Miller noted soreness in his throwing arm last week. And though Woo (19 innings, 18 strikeouts, four walks, 2.84 ERA), Miller (21 IP, 21 K, 10 BB, 3.43 ERA) and Logan Gilbert (22⅔ IP, 32 K, four BB, 2.38 ERA) have been predictably productive, 32-year-old Luis M. Castillo (21⅓ IP, 18 K, 10 BB, 4.22 ERA) is off to a shaky start.
The Mariners’ renowned rotation has also struggled to eat innings early, compiling just four quality starts (tied for 20th in MLB).
Point being: Kirby may return and be the same steady strike-thrower he’s been for three seasons. But in a six-month marathon, you may need six (or seven) starters before season’s end.
Maybe Hancock – a former first-round draft pick – will settle into a more reliable role. Maybe Logan Evans, who has struck out 14 and surrendered just two earned runs across 11⅓ innings in his past two starts in Tacoma, will be prepared for an eventual promotion.
Either way, the Mariners need this to be among the best rotations in baseball.
Which includes Hancock, Kirby or whoever else.
How shaky is the bullpen bridge to Muñoz?
Andrés Muñoz continues to cement himself as one of baseball’s best closers, converting all seven of his save opportunities in 10 appearances without allowing a run.
But the bullpen’s bridge to Muñoz?
I wouldn’t walk on it.
Take the seventh inning Thursday, when Carlos Vargas was tagged for three walks and a double, before Trent Thornton struck out Elly De La Cruz with the bases loaded to finally end the threat.
Or the eighth inning, when Eduard Bazardo was pummeled for two walks and three hits – the biggest being a Jake Fraley grand slam to put the Reds ahead.
The Mariners’ bullpen still has plenty of promise, and the return of Matt Brash after Tommy John surgery could solidify that bridge. But it’s unclear what version of Brash will emerge from an extended absence, and the demotions of Gregory Santos and Tayler Saucedo create more questions in the ‘pen.
Thornton (10 games, nine IP, 4.00 ERA), Gabe Speier (nine games, eight IP, 0 ERA) and Collin Snider (seven games, eight IP, 3.38 ERA) remain reliable assets. But considering Seattle has had more games decided by three runs or fewer than any team in baseball, the back end of the bullpen can’t afford continued leaks.
With a microscopic margin for error, who can – and should – Mariners manager Dan Wilson trust the most?
Can they piece together enough offense?
Here’s the good news: It hasn’t been that bad.
Which, of course, is a matter of perspective. But entering Thursday, the Mariners’ 158 strikeouts sat 12th in MLB, an improvement for a team that whiffed its way out of playoff contention in 2024. And though Seattle had the fifth-worst batting average (.212), that was countered somewhat by 23 homers (sixth most) and a 10.9% walk rate (third).
Consider, too, that 13 of their 19 games have been played at T-Mobile Park, a pitcher’s paradise.
So, yes: It’s not that bad. Which might be good enough.
But without injured starters Victor Robles and Ryan Bliss, the Mariners’ lineup remains perilously thin. It’s led by catcher Cal Raleigh (and his already infamous torpedo bat), who has clubbed six homers in his past six games. And though left fielder Randy Arozarena boasts just a .212 batting average, he has reached base safely in 15 consecutive games – and drilled the game-tying homer Thursday, plus a two-RBI double in the 10th.
Unsurprisingly, Julio Rodríguez is off to another slow start – with a .187/.307/.373 slash line and one single in 13 at-bats in three games against the Reds. Regardless of Raleigh and Arozarena, the Mariners need Rodríguez to regain All-Star form to be credible contenders.
Plus, it’ll take more than this club’s core pieces to sprint across the finish line. Of Seattle’s fledgling vets – Rowdy Tellez (.111/.154/.222), Mitch Garver (.148/.324/.148), Donovan Solano (.077/.074/.077), etc. – can something be salvaged? And are hot starts from Dylan Moore (.333/.388/.622), Jorge Polanco (.378/.383/.622) and Miles Mastrobuoni (.292/.414/.292) early-season mirages or signs of something more?
Admittedly, there are more than three questions here.
In three more weeks, or months, we may have some answers.