Perhaps it angered a good many Seattle Mariners fans when the team’s top baseball executive, Jerry Dipoto, discussed the offense earlier in the week. As the public – and this writer – clamored for the M’s to add an impactful bat, Dipoto justified standing pat by citing Seattle’s offensive road stats.
The Mariners play in a pitcher-friendly park, but when they leave T-Mobile Park, their production from the lineup is actually decent. So the question is: Has our perception of the Mariners’ hitting – and pitching, for that matter – been skewed?
The M’s, after all, were considered by many to have the best pitching staff in baseball last season. Their American League-leading 3.49 ERA buttressed that opinion. The feeling has been that the front office’s inaction over the past few offseasons is squandering a generational opportunity. When will the pitching be this good again?
But did you know that last year that vaunted Mariners pitching staff was 19th in ERA on the road? Its ERA was 4.18 away and 2.85 at home. Compare that to the Braves – who led MLB with a 3.49 ERA (just thousandths of a point better than Seattle) and posted a 3.51 ERA at home and a 3.46 on the road. That’s consistency. And it’s why FanGraphs indicated that Atlanta had the best pitching staff by far last year.
Last week, MLB.com did a deep dive into how different parks affect offensive production and found that T-Mobile was the most impactful by far. Most people think of Coors Field in Denver as the stadium responsible for the most dramatic run swings, but that wasn’t the case last year.
According to Statcast’s park factors – as writer Mike Petriello pointed out – Coors Field boosted offense by 10 percent while T-Mobile Park suppressed it by 11 percent. The Mariners’ .205 opponents batting average at home was the fifth-lowest mark in MLB history. But that home-field advantage produced some astonishing home/away splits. The most notable was All-Star closer Andres Munoz, who had a 0.28 ERA at home and a 4.28 ERA on the road.
It’s a fascinating piece, highlighting how the temperature and marine layer prevent the ball from carrying, but more than anything, create strikeouts because hitters are swinging harder than usual to try and combat the elements.
Which brings us back to the Mariners’ offense: Is it really that bad?
The M’s finished 22nd in MLB in OPS last year and 21st in runs – stats that indicate offensive efficiency more so than batting average (which was 29th). But on the road? Tied for 13th in OPS and 12th in runs. That isn’t mind-blowing, but it suggests Seattle’s offense was (brace yourself) better than average. FanGraphs indicated the same, attributing a 21.3 WAR to Seattle’s offense – 14th out of 30 teams. The Mariners’ pitching WAR? 16.9. That was ninth in MLB.
None of this justifies the Mariners’ middling performance last year. They won 85 games, and if players such as Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford didn’t suffer offensive dips, they could have made the playoffs. And it certainly doesn’t justify the front office’s stagnation over the years. This team has been pretty good for a while. A big move or two and they could have been great.
Additionally, the Mariners still seem to have one of the best starting-pitching staffs in baseball. The starters’ ERA of 3.38 last season was the best in MLB by far, with Kansas City coming in second at 3.55. Adjusted for their park, though? Well, FanGraphs’ WAR for Seattle’s starters was 15.2, fourth in MLB and second in the AL.
Most of the Mariners diehards know that it’s tough to hit at T-Mobile Park. They might not have known that it was quite this difficult, though. As MLB.com pointed out, the M’s had the best strikeout percentage in the league at home and were 20th on the road.
If you’re a star free agent position player, is that really going to appeal to you? Those in the know might realize your .900 OPS would be 1.000 if you played for most teams, but stats are precious to a lot of players. It’s why Seattle will likely have to pay above market value to lure the big names.
Even so, last I checked, the Mariners were still in the bottom half in MLB in payroll. It’s where they’ve been for the past several seasons. Fans’ irritation at such fiscal conservatism is warranted.
But Seattle’s shortcomings aren’t quite as simple as “pitching great, offense bad.” Either way, it’s on the brass to make them better.