SEATTLE – The thing is, the Mariners could still end up being a playoff team. They could even be a division winner. And given the pitching staff and nature of baseball — where the most dominant teams aren’t always hoisting trophies by season’s end — a deep postseason run is in play, too.
Offensively anemic as this team was last year, and middling as their payroll continues to be, there is talent on the roster that could keep the T-Mobile Park seats occupied throughout the season.
But I don’t think that’s what most Mariners fans are thinking right now. I don’t think they’re celebrating this year’s team’s potential so much as they’re lamenting another stagnant offseason.
And for good reason.
It was reported Sunday that infielder Jorge Polanco will return to the Mariners on a one-year, $7.75 million deal. Barring any significant trades, which appears less and less likely, this all but solidifies Seattle’s roster for the upcoming season.
It’s still a decent team — one that won 85 games last season and might have the best starting rotation (if not overall pitching staff) in baseball. It’s just hard to say they’re a better team than they were before.
If the roster is indeed complete, the Mariners will enter another spring training having again failed to land a whale of a free agent. And I don’t mean a megastar such as Juan Soto so much as a lesser All-Star like Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman. Perhaps neither was ever interested in coming to a pitcher-friendly park where their numbers faced the threat of plummeting. More likely, the M’s were never interested in shelling out the kind of money that would entice them to come to the Northwest.
Either way, the idea that the offense — which finished 22nd in OPS last year — is going to have a renaissance in 2025 seems unlikely. There was just no notable upgrade.
Newly acquired designated hitter Donovan Solano, 37, had a WAR of 1.0 last season and an OPS of .760. He could help, but will likely still hit near the end of the order. Fans were likely hoping to get an improvement over Polanco — who hit .213 in 118 games last season — but just got Polanco again.
What the Mariners really need is for a slew of hitters to post stats resembling the best years of their career. Is that realistic?
Can center fielder Julio Rodriguez, whose WAR has gone down by about one win in each of his first three years, rediscover the form that had him in the MVP conversation in 2023 … or have pitchers figured him out? Can shortstop J.P. Crawford — whose WAR dropped from 5.1 in ’23 to 2.7 last season — get back to his old self again?
Will right fielder Victor Robles, maybe the biggest variable in the lineup, continue to torch opponents like he did in Seattle last year? Or will he regress to the player that has had two seasons with a negative WAR?
Catcher Cal Raleigh and Luke Raley have been productive over the past two years, no doubt. Will they remain consistent? What about former All-Star Randy Arozarena, who played relatively well after being traded to the Mariners but still had the worst year of his career last year?
A lot has to go right. That’s true of the pitching staff as well, which put up the best ERA in baseball last year but also enjoyed good health with their starters last season. Four of them made at least 30 appearances, while Bryan Woo made 22. Counting on that to happen again is a big ask.
I realize that trying to deal three-time All-Star pitcher Luis Castillo for better hitters was a challenge. As Times writer Adam Jude pointed out, the number of teams in rebuilding mode are scarce, making it difficult to find suitable trade partners. I also realize that finances might be tight due to the Mariners’ concern with their regional sports network as well.
But this isn’t about one offseason. It’s about an incessant trend in which the M’s are in the bottom half of the league’s payroll and, barring one run in 2022, are regularly left out of the postseason picture.
Maybe this year will be different. We aren’t talking about the White Sox, Marlins, A’s or Rockies. This Mariners squad should be able to compete.
That isn’t enough for this town anymore, though. The fans here want a banner. If the roster is set, it’s hard to say the M’s moved closer to hanging one.