SEATTLE – The Seattle Mariners have one path to the playoffs.
It’s paved with starting pitching.
As embattled president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto confirmed in a prespring video conference Feb. 3: “We did have some conversation around (trading) our pitchers, particularly when there were so many phone calls coming in right around the time of the winter meetings. But it was always our desire to get to opening day with the five, and that starting five is in place.
“Good health permitting, that’s our five starting pitchers. We’re going to ride ‘em like we always have.”
Before you say it: I agree. There are problems with that plan.
Namely, the good health permitting part. Mariners starters have enjoyed a remarkable run of reliability, leading MLB in innings in both 2023 (901.1) and 2024 (942.2). Four of their five starters topped 175 innings last season – Logan Gilbert (208.2, first in MLB), George Kirby (191.0, ninth), Bryce Miller (180.1, 21st) and Luis Castillo (175.1, 31st). Bryan Woo added 121.1 innings as well.
In a sport where dizzying spin rates test an arm’s limitations, it’s unrealistic to expect Seattle’s starters to remain unscathed.
Or, as general manager Justin Hollander said in an interview on 710-AM Seattle Sports on Feb. 24: “I don’t think we found the pixie dust that’s going to allow us to keep pitchers healthy when the rest of the free world can’t. We’ll have adversity to overcome this year.”
It’s already arrived. On March 7, Hollander announced that Kirby – who went 14-11 with a 3.53 ERA in 33 starts (tied for most in MLB) in 2024 – had been shut down due to shoulder inflammation. The 27-year-old is expected to start the season on the injured list, thrusting sixth man Emerson Hancock into the available void.
Granted, the Mariners want to ride their starting pitching for a reason. The Mariners’ rotation topped MLB in quality starts (92, 12 more than the No. 2 Phillies), ERA (3.38), opponent batting average (.221), WHIP (1.03), batting average on balls in play (.261), walks per nine innings (1.77), K/BB ratio (4.81) and opponent line drive percentage (18.2%) in 2024.
It was the best rotation in baseball.
But what happens if/when a wheel falls off?
The Mariners failed to prepare for that possibility in a frustrating offseason, declining to add offense to support their robust arms. Shackled by a financially frugal ownership group, Seattle did little while impact free agents – Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander and Christian Walker– signed elsewhere. They also struggled to find teams willing to trade established bats for their pool of long-term prospects.
They could have paved other possible paths to a playoff return.
Instead, they signed Jorge Polanco (a 31-year-old with injury issues asked to play a new position), Donovan Solano (a 37-year-old veteran with 40 homers in 11 MLB seasons) and Rowdy Tellez (a 30-year-old first baseman with a negative WAR in each of his past two seasons).
So, it’s the same old story.
For Seattle to sniff postseason play, its starting pitching has to be the best in baseball.
Again.
“Each one of these guys comes into spring training, and their idea is to get better. It’s not complacent. They’re not resting on their laurels,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said March 1. “This is a group that wants to get better and wants to push one another, No. 1, but wants to take this team to a different place.
“They’re always working. To a man, these five guys put their work in and they’re very diligent about how they work. They’re very particular about how they work. But they also push the envelope. They’re trying to invent new pitches. They’re trying to improve the stuff they have. All of that just pushes that bar a little bit higher.”
Of course, it’s possible that senior director of hitting strategy Edgar Martinez and new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer help the Mariners’ offense continue last August and September’s ascent. And it’s possible the return of relievers Matt Brash, Gregory Santos and Gabe Speier – whose 2024 seasons were sunk by injuries – buoy a bullpen anchored by all-star closer Andrés Muñoz.
But given that the Mariners finished one game out of a wild-card spot in 2024, and did little this offseason to improve their offense, their starting pitchers might need to be even better.
The good news?
It’s also possible – even likely – that those ascending starters continue to improve. Gilbert (Seattle’s opening day starter) has done that all along, overhauling his slider and adding a split-finger fastball in previous offseasons to upgrade his arsenal. Miller, meanwhile, has radically evolved – inserting a sweeper, sinker, splitter, cutter and curveball alongside his fastball and slider.
The point is not to change for the sake of doing so.
It’s to beat both the batter, and Miller.
“It’s kind of unspoken more than anything,” Gilbert said of the competitive spirit shared by Seattle’s starters. “We don’t really talk about anything serious, ever, especially Bryce. But when a guy takes the ball, everybody’s super competitive, even though we joke and have a good time. Even in the offseason I’ll check up on guys and in the back of my head I’m like, ‘What did you add, Bryce?’ Because I want to come back and if he added something, I want to add it, and vice versa.
“So we kind of compete with each other in that way. We’re running out of pitch types, so it’s not about more pitches. It’s just the quality of the pitch that we’re executing.”
Besides maybe the 32-year-old Castillo, Gilbert (27), Kirby (27), Miller (26) and Woo (25) are all in their athletic primes. Rather than providing other paths to realistic contention, M’s ownership has left little margin for error. They’ll either ride their rotation into the ground, or to the promised land.
There’s one path to the playoffs.
Seattle’s starting pitchers have to push the bar.