1. Strikeouts.
The swing-and-miss is simply part of the DNA of Mariners hitters. “They’re still going to strike out a ton,” one MLB talent evaluator predicted.
Of the nine regulars in Seattle’s projected lineup, seven are expected to have strikeout rates greater than league average, per FanGraphs’ projections. (Victor Robles and J.P. Crawford are the two exceptions.) Yes, strikeouts are at an all-time high around the sport, and there is an acceptable level of swing-and-miss factored into modern roster construction. But strikeouts were the No. 1 factor in the Mariners’ offensive downfall the past two seasons – and it will continue to be the No. 1 factor until they prove otherwise.
2. Bounce back … to reality?
Robles was a catalyst for the Mariners in the second half last season after he assumed a full-time role atop the lineup. And over the final month, only National League MVP Shohei Ohtani was a more productive hitter than Robles, who posted a 203 wRC+ in his final 34 games to end a remarkable resurgent season for the 27-year-old. Contrast that with Robles’ tenure with the Washington Nationals, with whom he posted a .667 OPS and a combined 6.4 WAR across 530 games. In 77 games with Seattle, he posted an .860 OPS and a 3.1 WAR. Which version of Robles shows up this season?
3. Park factor.
We’ve seen this script play out repeatedly the past few seasons: In the coldest MLB environment, the Mariners struggle early on to hit inside the game’s toughest ballpark … they start to grow frustrated … they maybe try to swing a little harder … and fall out of sorts on offense. T-Mobile Park can make accomplished hitters look fragile, and Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco were the latest victims of that in 2024. The Mariners didn’t make any significant upgrades to the offense, and maybe (just maybe) there’s one silver lining to the disappointing offseason: There aren’t any new hitters coming in who have to go through the growing pains of learning how maddening it can be to hit in Seattle. The flip side: There’s no excuses anymore. This lineup has been through it and they know what it’s like to play here. Now they have to adapt.