This is where the fun begins.
Victor Robles is exactly the type of player who might need no introduction, but demands to be talked about in spite of, or perhaps because of that. A former top ten MLB prospect from the Nationals once ranked ahead of Juan Soto, who lost enough shine with that team that he was designated for assignment on June 1st of last year, going unclaimed. After having been impressed with Seattle’s vibes when they met up with his now former team, three days after Washington released him, Robles was a Mariner.
It didn’t take long for Victor to make an impression, with aggressive and energetic play, but also by providing a legitimate leadoff option with his bat production. He was taking advantage of a fresh start, and let this be fuel for the Victor Robles believers, made a mechanical change that could be responsible at least in part for the drastic turn-around in his results. Mariners fans quickly embraced the lively player who, along with other mid-season addition Randy Arozarena, they could look forward to seeing on the outfield stage that in recent seasons was only seeing sets from Julio and the Question Marks. It also helps tremendously that Robles genuinely wants to be with the Mariners, and the two parties made that official in ink just over two months after Robles joined the club with an extension through the 2026 season, and a team option for 2027.
Even with love for the player, if your instinct is that his numbers across 71 games and 262 plate appearances with Seattle might prove unsustainable, mechanical change be damned, then the projections are inclined to agree with you. In his time as a Mariner so far he has rocked a 154 wRC+, a 16.8% strikeout rate, a .328/.393/.467 slash line, and stole thirty bases. The projection systems have some variance in how much plate appearances and stat regression there will be, but similarly settle on an at least mostly everyday starter somewhere around league average with some upside, and definitely regressing from his season numbers posted with Seattle.
Emotionally, I’m inclined to take the over and bet on the invisible peripherals in Robles’ game being the pillars of support aiding a new approach, and in results, a new player. There are glimmers of hope in that with the increase he saw in squaring balls up, and his rolling xwOBA. But logically, regression to the mean is much more often the case, and setting my heart aside I have to go with my head and go with a push on the projections. But if that regression still means a solid, maybe everyday outfielder that is gonna swipe a bunch of bags, then my heart is still more than full.
-B.E.
Projections:
FGDC: 553 PA, .251/.325/.365, 106 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR
PECOTA: 96 DRC+, 1.3 WARP, 469 PA, .236/.308/.344
Over/unders:
Kate: with a heavy heart, under
So much depends upon Victor Robles/glazed with new blonde hair/beside the other two outfielders
Apologies to William Carlos Williams, but it’s hard for me not to see Robles as one of the inflection points for this team going forward. With the soporific off-season, the team is banking on him being both healthy and good, something he hasn’t been simultaneously in his career but has been in Seattle…so far. It’s all a bit handwavey. I’ll confess to you, dear reader: in the deepest night I go in the backyard, dig a hole, whisper I’m worried about a Robles regression, cover it up then run away. As long as it’s in the hole it can’t hurt me, right?
Grant: I”m going smack dab in the middle of these projections, even with the differing plate appearance estimates. There were plenty of reports about the tweaks he made once he joined the team, but he also had a 30-point gap in his wOBA (.357 vs .326 xwOBA) and a BABIP of .370, far above his career mark of .311. I’m generally prone to players with top prospect pedigree since there was perceived to be significant talent there at some point, but even with that I see Robles settling down right around league average starter this year. Which is still a good outcome, to be clear, for a guy we got off of waivers!
Anders: I’m with Grant, I think Robles falls somewhere in the middle of the two projections. He’s a super fun sparkplug of a player, but the track record is just not strong for him outside of his short Mariners stint. I think he’ll still be a very useful player, but I don’t expect him to be a star. So, somewhere in the 2 WAR range.
Max: I’m taking the under on the offensive production, but I actually think he’ll end up being right around this in the WAR department assuming he remains the starter all year. I’m wishy-washy on whether or not the changes he made, both mechanically and mentally, have the staying power to make him a legitimate offensive threat, however I think his defense and base running should be able to put him in the 1.5 – 2.5 WAR range. If he sticks as the leadoff guy, amazing. But if slots down towards the end of the lineup, steals bags, and limits runs defensively, he’ll be more than worth his extension.
Zach: Pass
Anybody who expresses any confidence at all in their assessment of Victor Robles isn’t someone you should trust.
John: Over.
I have never been more certain in my life of anything.
Okay, that’s not true. But I actually think Robles produces around the fWAR productivity in his PECOTA-projected allotment of games, if not slightly above. Victor plays with his heart on his sleeve, and sometimes that is electrifying, while at other moments it explains why he’s only once mustered more than 407 plate appearances in his career. Ribs are there for a reason, Victor!