Opportunity knocks, but sometimes you need to kick down the door.
When Ryan Bliss arrived from the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023 he was touted as a high-upside prospect who had just begun to show real signs of pop with his bat to go along with strong defense and great speed. So far, the Mariners have not seen much of that bat in Bliss’s brief stints with the Mariners at the major league level, but this spring it seems something has clicked. I’m not one to buy into spring training games, but Bliss’s performance suits my agenda, so I’m gonna bring it up now. Bliss has been hitting .350 in the Cactus League with a .950 OPS. Do I expect him to maintain that stat line in the regular season? No. Do I expect him to be above replacement level and an excellent everyday second baseman? Yes. While Bliss has yet to wow at the big-league level, he has shown flashes of greatness, and the underlying statistics support that.
In a limited time, Bliss has demonstrated a respectable hard hit percentage and sweet spot percentage to go along with his already top-level speed. According to Baseball Savant, Bliss is listed in the 46th and 37th percentile, respectively. It’s clear the 25-year-old is starting to show the signs of pop that had begun to blossom in 2023. Even more interesting, Bliss is rated in the 21st percentile for chase rate. What I take this to mean is we have a player here who’s doing a good job of finding the sweet spot while hitting the ball hard and not chasing nearly as much as other guys in the league. While a small sample size, that tracks with his performance in the minors thus far.
Bliss has also continued to work on his game and improve. I can think of a few Mariners legends who wouldn’t even look at a baseball in the offseason (cough, Felix). It says a lot about Bliss that he is willing to work on the gaps in his game and come back better than before. As reported by Sports Illustrated, Bliss has been working on improving his hitting against fastballs. Last year, Bliss hit .350 against the breaking ball as opposed to .194 against the fastball.
“That was something that I knew I had to tackle coming into this spring and heading into the season,” Bliss said. “Worked on it this offseason and it’s been showing off in-game. Just my whole focus just — getting on the heater, being on the heater and not letting that be me. And I feel like I’ve been doing well, my work has paid off. And I just hope I can keep that going into the season.”
This hard-hitting speed demon seems finely tuned to take the next big step. Bliss’s dedication to his skill development and his ability to hit the ball hard and prevent chases put him in the position to be the next big Mariners star. Get your tickets for the Bliss hype train now because it is leaving the station!
Projections:
FGDC: 175 PA, 91 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, .221/.293/.354
PECOTA: 373 PA, 80 DRC+, 0.4 WARP, .208/.278/.333
Overs/Unders:
Zach: Under
My anti-Bliss spiel has always centered on his leg kick. With it, he can’t catch up to MLB pitching. Without it, he can’t hit the ball hard enough to get on base, and especially get extra bases. Only a very small number of guys his size can hit the ball hard enough against MLB pitching without that kind of leg kick. I’m unconvinced that anything about that is different based on his Spring Training or his three good games from last June against Logan Allen, Trevor Rogers, and Shaun Anderson that prop up his entire season line.
Isabelle: Under
Those PECOTA numbers make me want to gnaw on a hunk of leather.
Eric: Under
This lovely young man is simply not an MLB ballplayer, which sucks. I truly wish he was.
Kate: Over
So help me, this spring I’m becoming a Bliss Believer. Is it because he is one of the only competent defensive infielders the Mariners could run out at second or even third base? (please, my third base defense, it’s very sick.) Perhaps. But I am also buying Max’s spring training reports that Bliss has cut down his big leg kick, the object of Zach’s derision, and Bliss has looked good at the plate. I am ready! To be hurt! Again!!!
Max: Over
Ryan Bliss is a 25 year old who was statistically an above average big leaguer in limited, up-and-down play. He stole 55 bags last season, played solid defense at second, and finished with respectable if unspectacular overall numbers in Triple-A. I think Bliss got off on the wrong foot with the franchise because the Sewald deal felt underwhelming at the time, but Bliss is more than capable of being a respectable starter for this team. These expectations seem strikingly low for a player that’s earned the right to start this spring, especially one that comes with the draft and prospect pedigree that Bliss has. I’m smashing the over and planting my flag for a 2+ win season.