Aroz by any other name is a solid big leaguer.
Randy Arozarena is a new addition to this year’s Opening Day roster after being acquired in a midseason trade. Randy provided a nice little boost for the Mariners at the end of the season despite starting poorly for the Rays. Hitting a dismal .211/.318/.394 in Tampa Bay, Randy improved to a nice little .231/.356/.377 with the M’s. Now, clearly the marine layer, curse of the Kingdome, or whatever you want to call it that stops the Mariners from hitting for much power, affected his time in Seattle last year, but the projections look good. I don’t think there’s a reason to believe he won’t be back to the fun, free-swinging ex-Cuban-now-Mexican outfielder we all know and love.
What makes Randy of particular interest coming into the new season is his continued ability to hit the ball hard. Some of you who have read some of my other work will know how highly I value this, mostly, it boils down to why hit ball many times when few times do trick? Randy has been in and around the top 10% for maximum exit velocity every year of his career. Just as importantly, Randy has remained in the top 30% of the league in average exit velocity throughout his career. Now, before you go and say “but Ezra, he strikes out a lot too,” that’s kind of true, but Randy posted a reasonably impressive 11% walk rate last year, good enough to put him in the 88th percentile around the league.
Randy has also continued to work on his chase rate, decreasing in 2023 and 2024. His K and whiff percentage remains less than ideal, but careful placement in the lineup and solid protection on both sides could help him to see better pitches. Arozarena whiffed almost 15% more on breaking and offspeed pitches in 2024 than he did on fastballs. If he can be placed in a spot in the lineup where he will see the fastball more or ambush on the first pitch of the at-bat, I think he could put together an excellent season for the Mariners. Combining a chase rate that has now decreased two years in a row and continuing to hit the ball hard, I don’t see any reason we can’t anticipate a great year from Randy Arozarena. I think we are looking at a 3 WAR player right here.
Projections:
FGDC: 658 PA, .241/.337/.411, 122 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
PECOTA: 634 PA, .224/.321/.377, 108 DRC+, 2.7 WARP
Over/Under:
Kate: Spot on
A shade under three wins feels like a safe projection for Arozarena, who suffered a bad year last year but has been right around that mark the past two. It feels greedy to hope for the four-win player he was in 2021, given that he’s both older now and playing in a less hospitable ballpark, but a rebound from his nadir in 2024 feels both possible and probable.
Anders: Over
Call me an optimist, but I think Arozarena will benefit from having gotten used to T-Mobile Park last year, and I am betting on this new hitting coaching crew getting the most out of guys like Randy. Still just 29 years old (until tomorrow), there’s no reason for Arozarena to not have another very good season in him, and I’m betting on it being this one.
Zach: Under
Arozarena’s best seasons have been fueled by BABIPs he won’t see in T-Mobile Park (and 2020, when the small sample allowed him to run a Judge-ian home-run-per-fly-ball rate). He’s a reliable producer, and I don’t think the projections will miss by much, but I’m taking the under. Though I do bet he aims for and achieves a fifth consecutive 20-20 season.
John: Juuuuust Over.
I don’t disagree with anything ZAM has outlined, but I see a few reasons to stuff Randy this year. Most notably, despite the club’s lip service towards contact, I am enthusiastic about a player who walks and can run well (albeit still somewhat haphazardly) like Arozarena. I buy him as a three-win player, and Seattle would be brilliantly served if he performed as such.