Can Big Bert take yet another step forward?
In 2014, Logan Gilbert had a problem. The lanky 17 year old was pursuing his big league dreams, even hitting 90 mph for the first time that year. Like so many young hurlers, however, the strain was wearing him down. His own father spoke candidly to colleges and to prospective academies seeking to secure Gilbert’s training time: Logan could not throw without pain nor without significant rest between outings. The transformation from that player to the striking performer we’ve witnessed inspire Logan’s Loft and a fearsome alter ego has been incremental, but extraordinary.
I won’t make the mistake of deeming the version of Gilbert we were treated to a year ago a finished product. Pitchers have always tinkered, modern ones now ever moreso. With a world of instant messaging to instructors and competitors, as well as slider-spotlighting shinobi on every edge of social media, new pitches and tweaks are ever present opportunities. 2024 was, nonetheless, a new benchmark for Big Bert. He set career highs in innings pitched, strikeouts, fWAR, and much more. Frequently, Gilbert took the hill and was Seattle’s best pitcher, an honor of consequence within a rotation so celebrated. It’s quite plausible that this is his first season taking the Opening Day honor, having out-pitched his still-steady compatriot Luis Castillo.
Logan Gilbert is what happens when it all works out. Dependable, potent, and an apt centerpiece of a rotation that is more First Among Equals than a King and his subjects.
Projections:
ZiPS – 189.0 IP, 3.5 fWAR, 3.29/3.48 ERA/FIP
PECOTA – 188.0 IP, 4.1 WARP, 3.24/3.70 ERA/DRA
Over/Unders:
Kate: Over
Over his career, much has been made of Gilbert’s extremely long levers, most recently by a mic’d up Bryce Miller at spring training: “Look at Sandwich over there. All tall for no reason.” It turns out there is a method to Long Logan’s madness; as he’s matured through his big-league career, those Stretch Armstrong-style limbs have helped him craft and shape an ever-evolving arsenal that’s kept Gilbert a step ahead of hitters. What a long way he’s come since his first year, when analysts looked at that elite extension but a fastball that played down and wondered if he’d ever put it all together; they simply did not know about our boy’s relentless work ethic, meticulous study of his craft, or the Jekyll-like, hell-raising figure of “Walter.” With the usual disclaimer of health, I see no reason the LogiBear can’t continue raiding the pic-a-nic baskets of opposing hitters at an even greater clip.
Anders: Over
I still think we haven’t seen the best of Gilbert, and I’m going to keep saying “this is the year” until it happens. But I really do think this is the year we see him take that next step that puts him firmly in the Cy Young conversation come September.
Max: Over
These projections feel light to me. Logan has logged a massive amount of innings and has shown little fatigue in doing so, dominating his way up the ladder to be considered amongst the best in the game. Logan seems like he’s ready to aim for a Cy Young caliber season and could easily take the reins as the staff ace. In all honesty, it would surprise me more to see Logan post a 4 fWAR season. I think his steady demeanor and wicked stuff have him poised for his best season yet.
Eric: Over
Yeah, I’m with everyone so far in that those projections seem to sell our tall lad a bit short. I think he’ll continue to play his favorite role as a “stopper” and stomp out a win when the team is floundering a bit and so I see his fWAR being slightly higher. Hitting 200 innings wouldn’t surprise me much either, in addition to being neck-and-neck with Kirby for AL Cy Young contention.
Isabelle: Over
[Miranda Priestly voice] Over on a Logan Gilbert projection? Groundbreaking. In all seriousness, I think the Gilbert we saw last year is what you can/will see
Bee: Over
In a modern game that has seen dominant pitching evolve at a breakneck pace, LoGi has proven time and again he can evolve right along with it, either at or above that pace. The tools were always there with the frame, the extension, but he has sharpened and cared for those tools like the most adept craftsman. Talent, dedication, and now the seasoning of experience are the recipe for what I think will be Gilbert reaching a new, higher stage in his journey.