After a consistent few years, J.P. Crawford is back to the ups and downs that defined the early part of his professional career
J.P. Crawford, what happened? The Mariners’ spiritual leader had a breakout 2023, putting up a 136 wRC+ and 4.9 fWAR, both career highs by substantial margins. Even at the time, it was clear that his 2023 season was a career year. Yet, as chronicled in J.P. Crawford Appreciation Week, it also resulted from some legitimate skill improvements that pointed to a better player, such that even if he regressed from his 2023 performance, he was still likely to be better than the version of the guy we saw from 2020-2022.
Instead, he was worse than that guy. 2024 was Crawford’s worst season as a Mariner, on-and-off the IL with injuries, and putting up just an 89 wRC+ over the 451 PAs for which he was in the lineup. Some of this is likely due to the injuries, which he seems to have recovered from. And some of it is bad luck; his .248 BABIP was 159th out of the 169 players with at least 450 PAs. Unfortunately, I don’t think that low BABIP is entirely unrelated to skill degradation.
The primary fuel for Crawford’s improved 2023 results was hitting the ball harder. Crawford is never going to challenge Aaron Judge, or even Ian Happ, in terms of average exit velocity. But the difference between averaging 86 and averaging 88 is pretty meaningful. When you’re out on the extremes of the bell curve, small changes make big differences. More importantly, the way this manifested for Crawford was not so much by crushing the ball (though he did that a bit more often), but by substantially reducing his soft contact. That turned outs into hits and singles into doubles. The low BABIP from last year was in part a reflection of the return of his soft contact, which is concerning.
Even more troubling was what happened to the process change behind the contact-quality improvement. J.P. has always been one of the most selective hitters in the game, but in 2023, he started swinging even less, in particular, laying off pitches in the zone. Because J.P. has such excellent bat-to-ball skills, it was fine for him to lay off more strikes and wait for his pitch. He doesn’t need to fear falling behind in the count as much as most players do. And that price is totally worth paying when it means he can wait until later in the count in the hopes that he gets a pitch he can really do something with. He struck out a bit more often, but that was a fine tradeoff. But then last year, he started swinging more in line with his career rates. I suspect this caused the return of the soft contact. What’s really worrying though is that it didn’t return him to his career strikeout rate.
So what we saw last year was more weak contact, more strikeouts, and some bad luck on balls in play. That’s a dangerous combination for a glove-first player. A good baseline assumption is that his great 2023 and mediocre 2024 will balance themselves out in 2025, and he’ll look a lot like the player we saw from 2020-2022. And that’s what the computers project too. That result would be fine–that player is still a keystone on a playoff-capable squad. But it’s a bummer relative to what we were hoping for this time last year.
Projections
FanGraphs Depth Charts: 609 PA, 110 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR, .240/.336/.364
PECOTA: 626 PA, 97 DRC+, 2.3 WARP, .226/.322/.348
Over/Unders
Kate: Under
This one pains me to say, but I’m worried J.P.’s lost a step, on the field and in the box. Everyday shortstop is a punishing position, and J.P. has always physically been more of a Tulowitzki than a Correa. I think he’ll bounce back from his injury-marred, dismal 2024, but not quite to these projections.
Jacob: Push
I think I take the PECOTA prediction here. FanGraphs is expecting him to have a similar season to his 2021 season where he posted the best BABIP in his career at .320. PECOTA is suggesting something like 2022, which I not only think is likely at age 30 but is even acceptable as long as he stays defensively excellent like he was last year.
Anders: Over
I don’t know if I actually believe the “over” but dammit, I gotta give myself hope for something. The “over” case is basically that he has a fully healthy 2025, that Perry Hill has a bit of extra fairy dust lying around to give him another strong defensive season, and that the power gains come back with a vengeance. Seems an unlikely brew, but it could happen.
Bee: Under
I have no shame in admitting how excited I was after Crawford’s 2023 season, so much so that when I wrote his 40 in 40 last year it was much more of a hype piece than a true profile. That’s what makes this especially so hard to type now, as I think 2024 perhaps provided the opposite, in potential signs of the kind of decline that can’t be recovered from. I don’t see J.P. falling off of a cliff, but I do think the PECOTA projections are his ceiling for this season.
John: Push
I don’t think these projections are out of whack for Crawdaddy, whose numbers feel appropriate if he’s healthy. The lower body limitations sapped J.P. of power, which is something I can foresee him outperforming this year. Taking the mid-way point between the projections, Crawford’s cromulence would be stellar for this lineup and defense. Being asked to compensate for Jorge Polanco at third is another wrinkle I cannot easily augur. He did well on balls to the third base side last year, but it’s historically been the biggest weakness in his profile, putting lots of pressure on him. Josh Rojas blossomed into a defensive stalwart, covering what could be some shaky stuff over in the 5-6 hole this year.