Can King George unlock a new level in 2025?
Prior to the 2024 season, George Kirby was a popular pick to be a Cy Young candidate, a top-10 pitcher by whatever assessment system one fancies. But in last off season’s 40 in 40 on Kirby, Nick pointed out that Kirby had been the beneficiary of some luck in 2023, as several key expected metrics all increased, along with his hard-hit rate, while his strikeout percentage decreased slightly; and lo and behold, Kirby, while being very good, failed to land himself in the Cy conversation, being surpassed by teammate Logan Gilbert as the staff ace. Way back almost a year ago, Nick’s suggested fix was something that would become a theme of articles penned about Kirby in 2024: the strike-zone obsessed Elon product was perhaps becoming predictable, and should consider wrong-footing hitters by mixing his stellar command with purposeful misses, something that feels like anathema for a pitcher whose early calling card has been his allergy to throwing out of the zone.
But the single-minded Kirby didn’t much change his approach in 2024. Rather than solving his allergy to throwing balls by dangling an Epipen like a Sword of Damocles over hitters, Kirby, like his organization, opted to run it back, posting an almost identical season to his 2023. Perhaps it’s unsurprising, then, that ZiPS sees the once Cy Young pick darling posting essentially the same line in 2025. “Run it back” has been such a theme of this off-season.
We’ll take the steady hand every time, but it’s inarguable that the dazzling dominance of Kirby’s first full year in the bigs seems to have faded somewhat. It feels like a long time since Kirby, over seven highlight-reel innings, single-handedly willed the Mariners into an 18-inning standoff with the Astros in the team’s first ALDS appearance in decades – for the team, the fanbase, and for him.
-KP
ZiPS projections: 3.7 fWAR, 3.32 ERA, 3.26 FIP
PECOTA: 3.9 WARP, 3.33 ERA, 185 IP
Over/unders:
Kate: (slightly) Over
Unsurprisingly, projection systems see Kirby re-re-recreating 2022 in what’s called the “ain’t broke/don’t fix” corollary. I’m willing to take a moderate over, because it is surprising that the famously competitive Kirby has allowed himself to be out-aced by any member of the staff, but with hesitation. Kirby’s competitiveness is almost matched by his stubbornness, and while that can be a boon, it also has the possibility to hold him back from risking a change. Still, it’s important to reiterate that something like 80-90% of current MLB pitchers would make a Faustian bargain to post a line like Kirby’s over the first three years of their careers.
Anders: Under
I might be the low man just because Kirby is my least favorite of the five starters (though I still like him!). I just feel like we’re waiting for him to attain that next level and I don’t know if he’s going to reach it. I’m baking in another year of hitters becoming more familiar with him and hitting him around a little, so I think he’s just a hair worse than he was in 2023-2024.
Max: Over
I really don’t feel strongly about this pick, however I do think Kirby has another gear to him. Kirby is always going to be a FIP monster with his walk rate, but I think his game might elevate if he throws juuuuust a few more pitches off the plate. A projected 3.26 FIP is almost impossible to beat at face value, but if he gets his quantity of innings to a level in the same ballpark as he did last year, I think this is a pretty easy over.
Eric: Over
I see Kirby being fueled by last season’s disappointing starts, learning from his mistakes, taking in feedback from the pitching coaches, and putting together his best season yet. He’s still very young and these next couple seasons should see the peak of his arm strength if he’s on a typical modern-day pitcher career trajectory. I think we’ll see him around 2.90 ERA for a long stretch of the season and go up and down from there. I wouldn’t be mad to see slightly fewer than 185 IP, but as we’ve seen, he likes to finish what he’s started.
Bee: Slightly over from a second half boost
As much as Kirby has achieved, it’s easy to see how much of us expected or believed, or still do, that he has another level to him—however much higher that might be, as he has been stellar all along. I can absolutely see him finally learning to truly step outside of the comfort zone of his skillset and doing things that can help him further evolve, like getting batters to chase out of the zone more, but between his seeming stubbornness and just the nature of pitching itself, I don’t see any drastic change happening immediately. And there is no strong need for it to. Let Kirby stay the course and take the time to figure out how to get hitters to bite more.
Grant: Over
I hate to simply join the chorus — and as a Mariners site, it’s understandable that we have rosy-colored glasses — but I feel like this is the year that Kirby ascends. As with any pitcher, the biggest question is durability, but assuming he can play a whole season, I think he’ll increase his strikeout number and ascend. Four wins is a tall order, but Kirby is still only 27.