The Mariners’ fourth-most used reliever last year flipped his script to find success in 2024. Now it’ll be about sticking to it.
In an uncharacteristically fallow summer for Seattle’s bullpen in recent years, Collin Snider’s 1.94 ERA over 41.2 IP last year was a present from Poseidon. Snider’s whiplash delivery helped him post massive improvements over two immensely forgettable campaigns with the Kansas City Royals. In essence, Snider was an entirely new pitcher, going from nearly a decade as a contact-maven, grounder-inducing sinkerballer to a four-seam/sweeper stalwart, whose four pitch mix primarily featured working at the top of the zone instead of the bottom.
That transformation is legitimate, as Snider set his career-high strikeout rate at 27.8% _for any professional level_ in 2024. It’s also, however, both slightly overconfident, and a flummoxing data point for the projection systems. After all, we have Collin Snider, 2017-2023: Carlos Silva Cover Artist, placed against Collin Snider, 2024: Modern Relief Revivalist. An FIP of 3.41 a year ago and a DRA of 4.38 reflect a more average reliever than the man who was often in the highest leverage spots in the game for Seattle a year ago for a Brashless, Muñoz-less Mariners’ pen. Guiltingly, Snider’s video tags from MLB could double as the club’s defensive highlight reel. But Snider was good, even if he’s not the 1.94 ERA he got a year ago. As the club’s 4th, 5th, or even 6th bullpen arm, I’d be confident to see him on the hill once more. —JT
Projections:
FGDC: 65.0 IP, 0.0 fWAR, 4.13/4.26 ERA/FIP
PECOTA: 45.0 IP, -0.2 WARP, 4.86/4.57 ERA/DRA
Overs/Unders:
Kate: Over-easy like the eggs I can no longer afford
Sheesh, BP, what did Collin Snider ever do to you? The man more that doubled his strikeout rate after joining the Mariners, but when I think about Snider, I don’t necessarily think about strikeouts; I think about a lot of weak-contact outs in the air or on the ground, something Connor foresaw a lot of from Snider in last year’s 40 in 40. That’s actually not the pitcher Snider was last year, but I think next year we see the next stage in his evolution as a pitcher: something that was at a standstill in Kansas City but has so far picked up at a dizzying pace in Seattle.
Zach: Under
I like Collin Snider and would feel fine about him throwing 40 innings this year, but I feel like folks bought in too easily. He both beat his peripherals pretty soundly and got worse as the season went along and batters were better prepared. That’s a dangerous combination. The thing that gives me pause in my confidence about this is only that with a better bullpen, he’ll have to pitch against other teams’ best hitters less often. That alone should help his numbers even if he’s not actually performing better.
Bee: Slightly over
He posted career numbers last year, but outperformed his expected numbers in every category. I expect regression (I don’t think anyone is expecting a repeat of the sub-2.00 ERA) but not as far as to the projected numbers. I’m skewing towards PECOTA on innings, though.
John: Over, and surprised.
I came into this writeup fully expecting to echo the projections. Snider’s outperformance of his peripherals has him at a hilarious 51/83/98 ERA-/FIP-/DRA- that reflects the mighty gap between his results, his averaged expected outcomes, and the quality of contact he was affording. But any of those options is still a passable reliever, and that success is founded on the currency of the modern game: generating whiffs and avoiding free passes. That’s better than a replacement-level player.