Summer heat swelters, but it never lasts.
The Paul Sewald trade remains a fascinating prism of plastic. Viewed through the light, you can catch glimpses of something a bit aesthetically intriguing, however, it’s not ultimately the real thing. Most damningly, intriguing appears to be its zenith. Josh Rojas was serviceable, but only enough for a year’s pay. Dominic Canzone is serving a new, goggled look but played himself out of a surefire roster spot, much less a starting role.
That leaves Vargas, whose stuff remains potent but execution is forgettable. A groundball specialist with a sinker-slider combo, Vargas can operate with some room for error thanks to the number of double play balls he can generate. That only goes so far, however, and “so far” is how many of his pitches tend to go. With the home run bug buzzing in his ear in 2024, Vargas hasn’t separated himself this spring. That’s got him on the outs for a 40-man spot, as the 25 year old is out of options amidst a gaggle of veteran relief options. It’s hard to see a route forward that doesn’t involve a journey on the waiver roulette until he goes unclaimed.
Projections:
FGDC: 56.0 IP, 0.0 fWAR, 4.00/4.28 ERA/FIP
PECOTA: 40.0 IP, -0.2 WARP, 5.00/4.44 ERA/DRA
These do not reflect a reality I think we’re existing in, as the good folks running depth charts projections for the Mariners are not going to always recognize how a 40-man roster spot in the present is not indicative per se of an inside track to big league time.
Overs/Unders:
Kate: Under
Man, I like what CarVar has to offer in theory, but in practice, it is just not coming together. Normally by this point we’ve seen something in the way of positive movement, and admittedly, he has cut down his walk rate to “okay,” but it’s “okay” much like that flat-emotion face as the health score for a restaurant, mostly because it’s also paired with a pretty untenable strikeout rate for a reliever. We have other, shinier, poorly-commanding big-stuff relievers now, and I hope Will Klein or even Shintaro Fujinami gets those 40+ projected innings.
Isabelle: Under
“Under!!” she shrieks frantically, sending all the nearby birds into the sky.
“Under!!” she caterwauls, with a fervor that ripples the pothole puddles.
“Please, god, under,” she whimpers, fingers quivering at the keyboard.
Max: Under
I think I’m the biggest Vargas believer on the staff and I don’t even think he’s in the picture for this roster right now. It’d be fun if things clicked for him, but they literally tried turning Logan Evans into a reliever before giving this guy even an inning last season. Seems like little has happened to change that.