The former Bellingham Bell is back with the M’s after some time with Tampa, and could help out the big league team this year.
After being drafted as a third baseman in the fifth round out of Florida International University in 2019 by the Mariners, it was a foregone conclusion that Austin Shenton would be everyone’s favorite sleeper prospect. Born and raised in Washington, including a two-year stint with the summer collegiate West Coast League’s Bellingham Bells? It’s almost always so easy to root for local kids, and Shenton did nothing but mash after joining the org, tearing through short-season and Low-A ball before COVID knocked out the 2020 Minor League Baseball slate. Opening 2021 with newly-minted High-A Everett, he continued to hammer the ball, putting up a 164 wRC+ before earning a promotion to Double-A Arkansas.
Alas, despite a torrid ten-game stint with the Travs, he was shipped off to the Rays along with JT Chargois for the Dominican Big Boss himself, Diego Castillo. While Castillo put up a solid 2.86 ERA (don’t look at the FIP) down the stretch and was a key part of the 2022 bullpen that helped end the playoff drought, many were sad to see Shenton, a true bat-first prospect who had hit nonstop since draft day, go. He would finish 2021 strong with Double-A Montgomery, and after a down 2022, was back to his raking ways in 2023, finishing just one stop short of the Majors at Triple-A Durham.
Once 2024 hit, he wouldn’t have to wait long to get the call, opening the year on the Rays’ 26-man roster. He’d made his big league debut on March 31st, coming in as a defensive replacement for Yandy Díaz and flying out to left in his only plate appearance. Shenton would get sporadic playing time through the first six weeks of the season before being optioned back to Durham – though he did get into two games in September – and put up a triple slash of .214/.340/.405 while posting a 16% walk rate in his first fifty Major League plate appearances, good for a perfectly solid 120 wRC+. As a treat, he also knocked his first big league homer.
Unfortunately, given Shenton’s defensive limitations (he is much more of a 1B/“3B” than full-time 3B at this point) and the Rays’ roster crunch, he was deemed expendable, being designated for assignment in mid-November before the Mariners grabbed him back for cash considerations as the first (and for quite some time, only) 40-man roster move of the offseason. With a bench spot up for grabs, he’s been right in the mix to earn a spot on an Opening Day roster for the second consecutive year, but with two minor league options remaining, he could be ticketed to serve as attractive depth in favor of another middle infielder such as Leo Rivas or Ryan Bliss. In any case, it would not surprise me to see Shenton get a handful of fairly productive, if unflashy at-bats at some point this year, though don’t count on much more than FanGraphs Depth Chart and PECOTA project him for.
Projections:
FanGraphs Depth Chart: 35 PA, 101 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR, .215/.303/.375
PECOTA: 32 PA, 102 DRC+, 0.1 WARP, .227/.313/.392
Overs/Unders:
Kate: Under
The projection systems like Shenton more than I thought they might, but his solid minor-league track record and power potential are propping him up as at least league average. I have concerns about the swing-and-miss at the higher levels, so for now I’m going conservative and taking the under.
Zach: Over
A guy with Austin Shenton’s strikeout tendencies and post-prospect reputation is a guy who opposing batteries will feel like they can bully without having to put in that much effort. But that’ll be a mistake. Shenton’s power is absolutely for real, when he can get to it, with an ISO over .200 every year of his career. So it’s a recipe for punishing six or seven fastballs before opposing teams realize they need to actually try. By that point, it’ll be too late for Shenton’s line to come all the way back down to earth.
Anders: Under
I feel like I’m betraying my heart here as someone who first saw Shenton dominate for the Bellingham Bells in 2017, but in my ideal world, Tyler Locklear and Ben Williamson are each stepping up at the corners which would largely box Shenton out. I don’t mind him as a replacement piece, but I would be shocked if he truly hits that well in his first season in Seattle.
John: Over the fence.
Seattle has an opportunity to see Shenton hit much more extensively than he has previously in the bigs. More than most of their other gambles on unproven talents, I think Shenton merits the same sort of look that Tyler Locklear does. There may only be enough reps for one of them, but I think Shenton hitting will win him more reps and more production than his Depth Charts allotment.
Isabelle: Over (with a knock of wood, a toss of salt over the shoulder, etc. etc.)
It’s not hard to picture a scenario where Shenton gets 50+ PAs this season. Does that bode well for the M’s? Probably not, but that’s less of a knock on Shenton and more of an indictment of this team’s off-season acquisition approach. If he gets that longer look, I wouldn’t put him past him to have a spicy ‘lil stint up in the bigs.
Bee: Slightly Over
I’m with Ders in my hopes, and to some extent, faith, in Williamson and Locklear on the corners. And even in a scenario where things mostly go right, it’s completely normal for someone to go down for a couple weeks (what did Isabelle say about knocking on wood, salt, etc?) If that is the case, I’m more than happy to have Shenton waiting in the corners. I think the projections have it right on how much Shenton we’ll see, but I can easily see a wRC+/DRC+ closer to 105, 106.