Lookout Landing will always root for a cat guy
Here’s a pop quiz to end the week:
- Among the 402 players who pitched at least 40 innings last year, who is the only player to have both a top-20 strikeout rate and a top-40 ground ball rate?
- Among the 15 players whose fastball averaged more than 98 mph, who had the lowest opposing batting average?
- Among the 402 players who pitched at least 40 innings last year, who are the only two players who both induced whiffs on at least 17% of their pitches and got called strikes on at least 17% of their pitches?
- Of the 43 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 10 innings for the Mariners over the past three seasons, who has the highest strikeout rate?
- Among the 116 players who’ve thrown at least 150 career innings in a Mariners uniform, who has the lowest ERA?
The 40 in 40 series is supposed to acquaint or reacquaint you with the Mariners’ 40-man roster, but you know Andrés Muñoz, which is how you aced the quiz. You know him so well because since roughly June of 2022, he’s been the most reliably nasty pitcher on the roster.
Sure, he’s evolved a little here and there. Around June 2022, he slowed down his slider for instance, which is when he really took off. And he added a sinker for 2023, which allowed him to get out of jams when he couldn’t land one of his other pitches. In 2024, he started throwing multiple innings more often, with four four-out saves and another three five-out saves. But despite these changes, he’s been atypically reliable for a reliever—essentially untouchable, with the ferocity of his pitches a delightful contrast to his gentle, cat-loving nature.
As the first two questions in our quiz allude to, he’s the rare pitcher who gets guys to swing and miss while also inducing weak contact. If you can do both of those things, it doesn’t really matter what else you do because the outs will come. And come they have, as the final two questions allude to, with Muñoz continually climbing the list of all-time great Mariners.
It’s possible he’ll be something new this year, something that is somehow even more dominant, having spent some time this spring toying around with a kick-change. But he seems to have shelved the experiment as the calendar has barrelled toward games that matter. He may continue working on that and bring it back at some point. But until he does, you can just expect more of the same from the All-Star closer.
(The other player in question 3 is Minnesota’s Griffin Jax—undervalued in fantasy circles, IMHO.)
Projections
FanGraphs Depth Charts: 64 IP, 0.7 fWAR, 2.73/2.82 ERA/FIP
PECOTA: 50 IP, 0.6 WARP, 3.43/3.13 ERA/FIP
Overs/Unders
Kate: Over
I’ll take a slight over on this, but it’s close. I don’t think Andres will be required to pitch as much as he did in 2024, with different bullpen options and better depth allowing the Mariners to manage his workload – and his chronic back pain – better. But I think he’ll be even more effective in those outings. Also, if I was just voting with my heart, this would be the biggest over of all, because even though I try not to have favorites, Andres is my favorite.
John: Over
The only limitations on Muñoz’s performance are his ability to stay healthy. The kick change has me curious as to his ability to better handle lefties in a way that’s not just ceding contact or free passes to them with the sinker.
Grant: Over
Since he’s been a Mariner for three full seasons now, it’s easy to forget how young Muñoz still is (26, and younger than Bryce Miller). There’s no reason to think he can’t keep improving. Sure, some peripherals are likely to come back down to earth (.208 BABIP, 85.3% strand rate), but a 16.2% HR/FB rate should counteract some of that. In the end, I’m betting on one of the best closers in the AL, if not MLB.