When mediocrity presents itself in a different manner, perceptions get changed.
We’re a couple of weeks removed from the end of the 2024 Seattle Seahawks season. They had the great misfortune of missing the playoffs despite winning 10 games, losing out on a strength of victory tiebreaker for a second consecutive year.
The Seahawks had a rollercoaster of a season. Three wins to begin the Mike Macdonald era, followed by five losses in six, followed by four consecutive wins, and capped off by two damaging losses and two functionally meaningless wins. I’ve been quite busy and haven’t really done my own wrap-up of the season, but I finally figured out the angle for the season summary.
The Seahawks were still mediocre, just in a different way
You may argue otherwise but the Seahawks were a mediocre team with strong backing statistical evidence. Yes, they won 10 games, but the only teams they beat with winning records were the Denver Broncos in Week 1 and resting Los Angeles Rams in Week 18. Given ample opportunity against consensus contenders, they folded against the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills at home, failed to hold a late lead against the Minnesota Vikings, and dropped a fun shootout to the Detroit Lions that does have the caveat of several key defensive absences.
Believe it or not, the Seahawks had the worst DVOA of any NFC West team. The Arizona Cardinals were 12th, followed by the San Francisco 49ers at 14th, Los Angeles Rams at 17th, and the Seahawks at 18th. Seattle’s offense was 18th while defense and special teams were both 10th (to my amazement on the ST front). They also ranked 28th in variance, indicating a high level of consistency in addition to mediocrity.
Suppose you’re a mediocre student averaging a D in Precalculus, a C- in Civics, a B+ in English, and a C in Chemistry. The following semester you’re averaging a B+ in Precalculus, a C in Civics, but drop to a C- in English and a D in Chemistry. Improved grades in weaker subjects and declining grades in stronger subjects still average out to mediocrity.
That’s what the Seahawks did in 2024. Their offense got worse to the point of the one-and-done experience for coordinator Ryan Grubb, the defense performed at an above-average level after the bye week, while the special teams dipped (and, as I clarified in a recent conversation with Aaron Schatz, would’ve dipped more by DVOA if not for the stellar seasons Jason Myers and Michael Dickson had).
Many of the same issues regarding the offensive line, a struggling running game, bad penalties on either side of the ball, and third down and red zone offense persisted and in some cases worsened, while new problems arose regarding turnovers, special teams return game disasters, and an inability to either operate or defend play action passes. I bet you didn’t know the Seahawks were 31st in EPA/pass defending play action after two above-average performances under Clint Hurtt.
Mediocre is mediocre is mediocre no matter how you got there. Seattle not only failed to beat good teams but largely got thrashed and rarely held leads in those games. With the exception of the New York Giants disaster, the Seahawks were better than their lowly opposition, although 4th quarter comebacks were required to beat the New England Patriots and New York Jets. The day Seattle is no longer mediocre is the day these types of games against 10+ loss squads were emphatic blowouts.
But there are reasons for encouragement for the Seahawks
Player development
It was imperative for the Seahawks to have Jaxon Smith-Njigba showcase why he was the first receiver taken in the 2023 draft. JSN followed up his good but mostly unspectacular rookie campaign with a terrific second season leap, leading the team with a franchise record-tying 100 receptions, 1,130 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He’s the first Seahawk since Tyler Lockett in 2019 to hold the team triple crown of receiving. His depth of target increased from 6.1 to 8.7, his drop rate decreased by more than half, and he was one of the premier third down targets in the entire NFL.
Derick Hall also had a breakthrough second season following a zero-sack rookie year that was underwhelming enough for him to cede some snaps to a totally cooked Frank Clark. He answered with eight sacks, two forced fumbles, and a game-sealing fumble return touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons. It was like watching Boye Mafe’s second season all over again but better.
Perhaps the most pleasant surprise was the rise of Coby Bryant from reserve safety/slot corner to a bona fide starting safety. He tied for the team lead with three interceptions and also had six passes defensed. Alongside Julian Love, who had a terrific second season in Seattle, it looks like the Seahawks have their safety duo set entering next season. It suddenly creates a possibility where Bryant is a candidate for extending beyond his rookie deal, something that seemed unlikely last year.
This isn’t to ignore the emergence of AJ Barner as a receiving tight end, Tyrice Knight arguably exceeding expectations as a starting linebacker, and Sautoa Laumea having several positive moments as a run blocker out at right guard. I thought this would be a top-heavy draft for the Seahawks, but I might have been proven wrong.
Even if the team as a whole didn’t improve outside of the win total, young players at valuable positions either showed promise or made substantial developmental progress.
The defense’s upward trajectory was part of the deal with Mike Macdonald
Expecting an instant fix to a broken defense was always a bit ambitious, but this was a good start for Macdonald. When Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson were let go, the Seahawks defense underwent a major turnaround with Ernest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight as the starting linebackers. The run defense went from sieve to generally sturdy, which seems important to Macdonald’s scheme.
I am not going to argue everything is all patched up; Seattle is still not great at turning pressures into sacks, doesn’t generate a lot of tackles for losses, and didn’t perform well on early downs even after the Jones trade. It is nevertheless a major positive that the Seahawks defense ended the season strongly (the last game, not withstanding) as opposed to the total collapse of 2023 and the subsequent end of the Pete Carroll era.
The only defensive players of consequence not under contract for 2025 are Ernest Jones (please sign him, John Schneider), Jarran Reed, and Josh Jobe, who’s a restricted free agent. Acknowledging the potential cap casualties in Dre’Mont Jones, Rayshawn Jenkins, and even Uchenna Nwosu, there should not be a lot of roster churn at the top of the defensive depth chart. Having a reasonably high level of continuity should only help Macdonald implement his defensive vision.
Mike Macdonald was a significant departure from Pete Carroll in one key area
This is one of my favorite subplots of Coach Macdonald’s rookie season. That’s a bar graph of Seattle’s 4th down aggressiveness courtesy of rbsdm.com, created by Field Gulls alum Ben Baldwin. It is extremely simplistic and wrong to correlate 4th down decisions with having a great team, but the main point if that Macdonald was far more willing to go for it on 4th down with a struggling offense than Pete Carroll was with several vastly superior offenses. Carroll routinely ranked in the bottom-half of the NFL in 4th down aggressiveness, particularly in the back-half of his career.
Fears that a coach who comes from a defensive background would lean conservative and “trust his defense” and punt/kick field goals on 4th down were unfounded. Considering that Raheem Morris and Dan Quinn are also at the top of this list, perhaps the statement is more of a myth than anything founded in reality.
The onus is not on Macdonald to be more conservative when his offense turns nearly every 4th and 1 into something more visually obscene than The Aristocrats. The onus is on the offense to get better on 4th downs.
There are still reasons to be cautious
Being optimistic about the Seahawks’ future—2025 and/or beyond—means being confident in the quarterback situation (which is far from settled given the looming Geno Smith contract decision), the offensive coordinator hire, and the offensive line. The OL is not an area where John Schneider has earned much benefit of the doubt that he’ll “make it right,” to quote one of Mike Macdonald’s favorite phrases. I believe his seat ranges from uncomfortably warm to searing hot if the OL is given the cheap fix treatment for the umpteenth time and the results are substandard.
How the Seahawks approach this offseason should be the indicator of how Schneider views his own roster. This is someone who said the Seahawks underachieved in 2023. Does he still believes Seattle is a Super Bowl contender that’s just one piece away (spoiler: they aren’t), or will there be some big moves made that would suggest a willingness to risk taking a step back in the short-term with the plan of having a higher ceiling later? Whatever path Schneider chooses—it’s not like those two options I presented are the only ones—will be the determining factor for 2025 expectations.
I’d also note that despite repeatedly wishing for the downfall of the Rams and San Francisco 49ers, it hasn’t actually happened. The Rams have seemingly found a slew of young defensive gems (and, in the case of the offense, Puka Nacua) while substantially revamping what was a Super Bowl winning team in 2021. If they find an insta-successor to Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay doesn’t show any signs of retiring, they’re going to remain relevant. The 49ers may have to rebuild on the fly but keep in mind that their only two playoff misses over the past six seasons involved incredibly bad injury luck. I haven’t even mentioned the Arizona Cardinals’ strides made to finish just below .500. This was a fairly weak NFC West and Seattle did not separate itself from the pack. Seattle’s improvement should neither be assumed nor should we discount the significant possibility that the division as a whole will strengthen next season.
The Carroll Era had to end entirely because it was stale mediocrity. When the offense ranges from middling to very good but wholly frustrating to watch and the defense is exceedingly worse despite massive resource investment, it’s time for a new approach. Year one of Mike Macdonald yielded the same mediocre results, but one that showed a path toward a brighter future instead of jogging in place to avoid falling into the abyss.