The Seahawks have a new quarterback to replace Geno Smith. Is Sam Darnold a long-term answer at the position for Seattle?
After much speculation about Geno Smith’s future, the Seahawks have a new QB. Soon after the Geno Smith trade was completed, QB Sam Darnold was increasingly talked about in Seattle. So, as soon as free agency began, the Seahawks made their decision.
Sam Darnold’s Pro Bowl season was enough to convince Seattle to commit to him for three seasons and a good contract.
Contract
Darnold agreed to terms on a 3-year, $100.5 million contract. While more details will come out in the future, he is set to earn $55 million in guarantees as part of the contract. That’s $37.5 million in the first year, but (we still need the details) it could be considered a 2-year, $55 million contract that could be extended to the third year depending on performance.
Either way, that doesn’t negate the Seahawks’ chance of drafting a QB on Day 2 or late Day 1 and developing him without rushing while Sam Darnold is the starter.
Who is Sam Darnold?
Sam Darnold, QB, RAS pic.twitter.com/OZAooYzbNt
— Alexandre Castro (@alexcastrofilho) March 12, 2025
Originally selected third overall by the Jets in the 2018 NFL Draft out of USC, Darnold has not lived up to expectations. He has thrown 45 touchdowns and 39 interceptions and completed less than 60 percent of his passes in his early years.
He was traded to the Panthers prior to the 2021 season in exchange for a 2021 sixth-round pick and 2022 second- and fourth-round picks. Darnold had a strong start to the year and it looked like the Panthers could bounce back, but he fell off the mark, went on IR, and failed to replicate his early-season performances. He was named a backup throughout 2023, including a win over the Seahawks at Lumen Field.
Darnold signed with the San Francisco 49ers the following season. He was named the backup QB ahead of Trey Lance. Although Darnold started just one game the following season as a backup for the 49ers, he performed well in limited action with 297 passes and two touchdowns.
He was brought in to compete for the starting QB spot with J.J. McCarthy by the Vikings. However, an injury in the preseason forced Darnold to take over and have the year of his life. Leading coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense, he finished with 35 touchdowns to lead the Vikings to 14 wins.
Key stats
Darnold’s 2024 season was fantastic:
- Fifth in passing yards (4,319);
- Fifth in touchdown passes (35);
- Sixth in yards per attempt (7.9);
- Second in TD passes under pressure (13);
- First in completions of 20+ yards (35);
- First in Big Time Throws vs. blitz (16);
- Fourteenth in QBR;
There are also things to worry about. He made 27 “turnover-worthy plays,” the most in the league. Darnold also led a meltdown in the final two and most important games of the season.
Correcting some fallacies
As I mentioned at the beginning of the text, Darnold’s name has always been linked to Seattle. The problem is that some of the points made are not true.
Kubiak-Darnold Relationship
Understand, I don’t want to say that what I say is the absolute truth. But, it’s reasonable to believe that the relationship between a Passing Game Coordinator and a backup QB for just one year isn’t the strongest connection there can be. If only Kubiak had been the QB Coach in SF instead of PGC I would be more confident about this.
Again, I don’t want to say that they didn’t have a relationship in SF, I just don’t believe it was as solid as some pointers.
Geno Smith was better against pressure than Sam Darnold
Another point made is that the Vikings’ OL (especially the interior) was as bad as the Seahawks’. The story isn’t quite like that.
According to PFF, Geno’s pressure rate was 38.6% while Darnold’s pressure rate was 38.1%. Almost no difference. Minnesota’s pass pressure rate was near the bottom of the league. The idea that Geno was pressured much more is a fallacy, Darnold just handled it better at times. His PFF grade when he has less than 2.5 seconds to throw (81.0) is better than Geno Smith’s (77.9).
According to Profootball, here is the Vikings’ OL stats:
- Pass Blocking: 6th;
- Pass Block Win Rate: 24th;
- Pressure Rate: 26th;
- Avg. Time to Sack: 3.72s
The Seahawks’ numbers are quite different: Seahawks:
- Pass Blocking: 25th;
- Pass Block Win Rate: 30th;
- Pressure Rate: 12th;
- Avg. Time to Sack: 3.72s
Here’s the numbers from Week 9 with Cam Robinson taking over for Christian Darrisaw after injury:
- 10.2% pressure rate allowed;
- 0.9% sack rate allowed;
Seahawks OL from Week 9 onward (with Olu Oluwatimi and Abe Lucas starting):
- 9.6% pressure rate allowed;
- 1.5% sack rate allowed;
According to ESPN, the Vikings ranked 2nd in pass-block win rate (70%) and 15th in run-block win rate (27%). The Seahawks ranked 21st in pass-block win rate (58%) and 28th in run-block win rate running back (69%).
Sam Darnold arrives in Seattle in a very different situation
Seattle cut Tyler Lockett and traded DK Metcalf. This will be JSN’s first official year as WR1. The Vikings’ group had Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who were well above them. Darnold also had TJ Hockenson, a much better TE than Noah Fant, and AJ Barner, the second in the sequence who is still developing. Furthermore, Darnold did not have Laken Tomlinson and Anthony Bradford to protect him. And, with the OL weak in the running game, it will still be a question for the Seahawks.
Who can guarantee that with a much lower supporting group he will be able to produce something similar?
Analyzing Darnold’s Pro Bowl year
As I have said a few times, the Vikings’ offense shares similarities with what Kubiak intends to run in Seattle. Lots of play-action, movement and a strong running game. The Vikings called play actions on nearly 29 percent of their pass attempts, and the quarterback took advantage by throwing an NFL-high 16 touchdown passes and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt in that concept, while throwing just three interceptions.
Processing/Decision Making
This is his first TD throw of the season. Good pre-snap processing. The RB goes in motion and takes the LB with him. He leaves Justin Jefferson’s route without inside help. Darnold knows that this will be his first option and makes the pass to get the six points.
The Vikings are playing with the Twin Wing formation and what appears to be a Switch Mills concept; a very common concept in the Vikings offense. Darnold looks at the dig route from the #1 receiver and that traps the safety deep enough for the post route (actually a fake corner-post). Great route by JJ that still gets yards after the TD catch.
Not afraid to throw in the middle of the field. He goes through several progressions until he reaches the end. He still holds the LB looking at the RB and this opens up space to fit the pass.
I remember watching this game live and going crazy over this play. There was a big chance he wouldn’t be able to run for the first down. But, at least he would be very close and it would be a much better option than throwing completely against the direction of the body and losing accuracy. He is not a dual-threat but he has the athletic ability to get yards with his legs.
He notices the defense moving from a Middle of the Field Closed (MOFC) to Middle of the Field Open (MOFO), in what appears to be a Tampa 2. He knows where JJ’s route will be open and he holds #97 with his eyes to have space.
He realizes here that there is no one open at the back of the field and, instead of forcing the pass, holding the ball, he quickly triggers the checkdown. Young Darnold would have forced the pass and suffered the turnover.
He just needed to release the ball to #3. Yes, the pressure came quickly and he only had it for half a second. But that’s the tough job of a starting QB in the NFL.
Ball Placement/Arm Strength
A great pass. He covers the LB who bit on the play-action and manages to fit the pass between him and the safety.
Strength in the arm and even with the pressure coming he manages a beautiful deep pass.
Another example of arm strength with the ball quickly arriving on the sideline and the pass fitting over the LB.
Handling Pressure/Pocket Presence
I think Darnold is a good QB reading the pressure before the snap. However, it’s not the same when he has to adjust on the fly. He never expects pressure from Ahkello Witherspoon and without realizing it coming, he suffers the sack, fumble, and the defensive TD.
Here’s an example of him seeing the pressure, getting up in the pocket and throwing a bomb on the move to make a great connection.
Let go of that ball and navigate that pocket, Sam.
Sometimes pressure does its job even on snaps that don’t touch the QB. In this game, Darnold was hunted and suffered a lot from the pressure. Perhaps, the fear of another hit made him release the ball at the wrong time and miss what would have been an easy conversion.
He gains time in the pocket, advances and, after holding the safety deep in the field, makes a beautiful deep pass.
Good ability to throw on the move and get up in the pocket to throw. He escapes the pressure and takes advantage of Julian Love being late to cover the only deep route in his area, to score the TD.
Accuracy issues
One of Darnold’s biggest issues has always been interceptions. Obviously, when the QB throws a lot without fear, sometimes the price is paid and interceptions come. In 2024, this balance was very positive with 35 TDs to just 12 INTs. Geno had 21 TDs to 15 interceptions.
Darnold is not afraid to throw in the middle of the field. Basically, in the middle of four defenders, he fits the pass in the middle of the field.
Here’s the problem with this. Some passes are poorly positioned like this one and, worse, Darnold had trouble seeing some underneath defenders like in the case above. The situation was totally favorable for the offense with the receiver having a free release and only accompanied by the safety almost inside the end zone. This should have been a huge improvement, but Darnold has no idea Fred Warner is there and gets intercepted.
Final Toughts
My plan for the offseason would be to sign the cheapest possible QB and invest all the cap in the OL. Draft a QB in 2025, leave this veteran and cheap QB as a shield/bridge while they develop the rookie. At least the Seahawks didn’t give something like 40-45M to Darnold and his contract gives the possibility of the QB chosen in this draft or the next one (where there are more quality options) having time to develop without being rushed and getting into a better situation for the starting position.
I’m worried that he’s coming to a much weaker OL, with less talent in the skill positions and his biggest problems are precisely dealing with pressure at other times in his career. He doesn’t seem like the guy to carry this team on his back, but can he become one?