Let’s take a look at the alternate universe where the Seahawks still had a chance to win the NFC West via strength of victory tiebreaker.
From the moment the Los Angeles Rams beat the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday, the exclusive focus for the Seattle Seahawks was to get one hell of a slew of results to break their way in order to clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker. Hopes were dashed for good when the Washington Commanders beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night, eliminating the Seahawks and (barring a miracle in Tampa) the Falcons.
In our fixation on just surviving Week 17, it’s occurred to me that we never fully explained or clarified the parameters of what the Seahawks needed to clinch the NFC West in Week 18. We might as well get that out of the way now! So let’s pretend that the Falcons knew how to use timeouts and had an NFL kicker capable of hitting from beyond 50 yards.
What the Seahawks would’ve needed in Week 18 (aside from beating the Rams)
Chicago Bears over Green Bay Packers
New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons over Carolina Panthers
Miami Dolphins over New York Jets
Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs
Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers over Las Vegas Raiders
Detroit Lions over Minnesota Vikings
A lot of these results were distinctly possible if not probable. Would-be heavy favorites like the Bills and Chiefs intend to rest starters, increasing the chances of the Patriots and Broncos to win their respective games. One caveat with the Chargers over the Raiders, which would ordinarily be an easy Chargers win, is the potential for LAC to be locked into their seeding pending the result of the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The most obvious hang-up would be the Packers’ intentions to play their starters against the Chicago Bears, who seemingly can never beat them these days. That probably would’ve been enough to trip Seattle’s entire operation.
Ultimately it was always going to be extremely unlikely the Seahawks would’ve been able to get the SOV tiebreaker to flip in Week 18. If anything, I believe the main disappointment out of being eliminated in Week 17 is the fact that the Seahawks vs. Rams would’ve at least been meaningful as a (presumptive) Saturday game. Starters on both sides would’ve been playing and this would’ve effectively served as a playoff-like game for the Seahawks, regardless of how grim their chances looked for the Sunday slate. That were aren’t even getting that is probably what stings a little bit, as the regular season finale will instead look almost like a glorified preseason game.