Could this be John Schneider and Mike Macdonald’s defining moment?
(Editor’s note: Welcome Michael Thompson to the Field Gulls staff, everyone!)
Well, a lot can surely change in a couple of weeks. After Klint Kubiak’s introductory press conference and Mike Macdonald’s media interviews, it appeared that Seattle was all in on Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and running it back in 2025. You wake up today and it feels like the dawn of a new era for Seahawks football.
Wednesday was supposed to be about celebrating the incredible career of Seahawks legend Tyler Lockett. Instead it turned into a tumultuous and chaotic day full of uncertainty. Minutes after it was announced that Seattle was releasing Lockett, arguably the most talented player on the Seahawks, star wide receiver DK Metcalf’s trade request was leaked to the media. While his decision to want out isn’t exactly stunning, it’s the timing, the suddenness and the response by the front office that made March fifth’s collision of news so shocking.
There’s really no way around it, this is a disappointing moment for the Seahawks. Metcalf is an extremely talented player, one of the top 20 wideouts in the game, and entering what should be his prime years. I understand the case to be made that it is hard to imagine a scenario where Seattle will be better in 2025 without DK. I really like Metcalf and wanted him to hopefully have a sentimental sendoff that Tyler Lockett should have had after ten joyous years playing for the blue and green.
It really does appear that the DK era in Seattle has come to an end, and the ripple effect was felt Friday afternoon when Geno Smith was traded to Pete Carroll and the Las Vegas Raiders. It has been reported by SI’s Albert Breer that both sides reached an impasse over the salary numbers. According to FOX Sports’ Jordan Schultz, this led to Smith requesting a trade on Thursday night and his quick return to Pete in Vegas.
What a wild turn of events, as Seattle has become the center of the NFL drama universe. It’s fair as a Seahawks fan to be nervous or upset. I also believe there’s an opportunity here for Seattle under John Schneider and Mike Macdonald. Either way, I believe this will be the defining moment of their tenure together.
DK has a cap number of over $31 million this season. Trading Metcalf would lead to $21 million in dead cap money, but a savings of nearly $11 million. While Seattle could actually create more cap space with an extension, that becomes a slight problem if both sides can’t agree on a deal.
As it stands, Schneider has brought the Seahawks from the fifth least amount of cap space, to eighth, and there’s even more levers to pull. No matter what, John has created enough cap space for Seattle to be one of the heaviest hitters in free agency starting this week, which will feel very weird. Historically, the free agent market has not been an area this franchise chooses to be aggressive in.
The trading of Smith and the potential trading of Metcalf present two massive decisions that will have an enormous ripple effect on the Seahawks in not just 2025, but beyond. The glass half-empty mindset will look at this and say that John and Mike are losing too much leadership, and arguably their two best players on offense. They are setting up Klint Kubiak to fail, which will in turn lead to Macdonald and Schneider’s failure.
With a 2nd place schedule and AFC and NFC South opponents on the docket for 2025, anything less than 11 wins or a NFC West Championship will feel like a miss and we really don’t know how many more misses John Schneider has left in the barrel. By 2026, we could be looking at a complete rebuild, new front office leadership, and potentially a lame duck head coach.
On the other half of this coin, Seattle will be given the rare second chance to really build a team in the image they have claimed to desire for nearly a decade, although the decisions and results don’t exactly match the stated vision. Maybe it is different now though.
This will be the first time in 15 years that John Schneider has full control of the roster, and the head coach was his choice. He could take the path of leaning into a rebuild, and while no fan wants to go through that process, there’s rationale to this path actually being the quickest to returning to Super Bowl contention.
John could decide to trade DK for a price that he feels comfortable with, and be as aggressive as he’s ever been in the free agency market. The Athletic’s Dianna Russini tweeted Friday night that the Seahawks are targeting Sam Darnold to be their next quarterback. One of the best centers to enter free agency in years, Atlanta’s Drew Dalman, could be the prize and the key to an immediate turnaround along the offensive line.
With potentially five top 100 picks and potentially two of those picks being in the first round, Schneider and Macdonald can completely change the identity of the franchise with a successful draft. The Seahawks could get trench help on both sides of the football, while also finding a young wideout to pair with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. An aggressive free agency headlined by reuniting Darnold with Kubiak, and a successful draft with extra capital, don’t be surprised if the Seahawks have become a better team overall, despite the loss of DK and Geno.
There’s also the “worst case scenario” outcome , where Metcalf returns to Seattle and finishes out his contract. He’d be motivated to earn a new deal, even if it’s not somewhere warm, but he’d be making Seattle better in 2025 and maybe the door isn’t completely shut. John and Mike could decide to work around the uncertainty of Metcalf, and still achieve all they want to in free agency and still find ways to keep the rest of the roster intact. Does Sam Darnold, another quarterback that is available and reportedly on Seattle’s radar, convince DK to stick around?
Does an improved O-line through free agency and the draft, meshed with Klint Kubiaks’s offense, and a highly motivated DK Metcalf mesh perfectly with year two of Mike Macdonald and a perceived schedule advantage? I believe there is a best case scenario out of this worst case scenario where we could see a team that wins between 11 to 13 games and finds itself in the hunt for the number one seed in the NFC.
It appears that John Schneider and Mike Macdonald have three different paths they can take in the wake of this week’s chaos. All three paths can lead to success, but all three can also lead to disaster. This feels big, and could make or break their future in Seattle. I hope they are ready for the moment, and follow through with their vision, for better or worse.