SEATTLE – To steal a metaphor from another sport, the selection of Mike Holmgren to the Pro Football Hall of Fame seems like it should be a slam dunk.
The list of accomplishments the former Green Bay and Seahawks head coach presents to voters consists of, but is hardly limited to, the following:
• He is one of only seven coaches in NFL history to take two teams (Seahawks, Packers) to the Super Bowl.
• His teams made three Super Bowl appearances overall (Seattle in 2005 and Green Bay in 1996-97) – only nine coaches have more.
• His 13 playoff wins are tied for the seventh most in NFL history. Every coach with more is in the Hall other than two who will be someday – Andy Reid and Bill Belichick.
• He is 21st in all-time wins with 161, and his teams were in rebuilding mode when he took over. Neither Green Bay (112-75 from 1992-98) nor the Seahawks (86-74 from 1999-2008) had had a winning record in the previous two seasons before he was hired.
• He first achieved NFL notice during his time as an assistant from 1986-91 working for the 49ers and with quarterbacks Joe Montana and Steve Young, helping Bill Walsh refine the West Coast offense into one of the most innovative and game-changing schemes of that or any era.
As Thursday’s unveiling of the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2025 grows closer, there is more uncertainty that the 76-year-old Holmgren will make it than his supporters might wish.
Much of it is borne out of subtle changes to the voting process announced in August. Holmgren is one of 20 finalists for this year’s class. At least four, but no more than eight, will be elected.
That list includes a group of 15 modern-era players, highlighted by former Giants quarterback Eli Manning. At least three, but no more than five, of the modern-era players will be elected.
Holmgren is the lone coach among the finalists. In a change in the process, coaches are no longer considered their own category.
Holmgren is lumped in with a group of five along with three senior candidates (former players Sterling Sharpe, Jim Tyrer and Maxie Baughan) and one contributor candidate (Ralph Hay, the co-founder in 1920 of what became the National Football League and the owner of the Canton Bulldogs).
The past two years, there was simply one combined coach/contributor candidate instead of one of each. Of that group of five, up to three can be elected, and at least one is assured.
To be elected, candidates need approval from 80% of 49 voters (the voting has occurred, but results won’t be announced until Thursday).
In the past two years, the coach/contributor finalist simply needed to get 80% of an up-or-down vote and he would be in.
Now, the coach, contributor and the three senior finalists are essentially competing with each other for votes. If none of the five in that group gets 80%, the one with the most votes will be elected to the Hall.
The goal in making election a little more difficult, the Hall of Fame said in a statement in August, was to “help ensure that membership in the Hall of Fame remains elite.”
Those changes were made in the wake of an average of eight people making the Hall over the past four years.
In its statement announcing the changes in August – which also included alterations to committees that help in the selection process – the Hall stated “with the revisions, a new class could be comprised of four to eight individuals, but with the 80% approval threshold, classes are more likely, statistically, to include five or six members.”
That could put Holmgren and a few others at risk of being a victim of bad timing.
Holmgren made it to the semifinalist stage the previous three years, and becoming a finalist any of those three seasons was nearly a rubber stamp to getting into the Hall.
Dick Vermeil, who won one Super Bowl and coached in two and has a lower winning percentage than Holmgren (52.4 to Holmgren’s 59.2), made it in 2022 and Don Coryell, who never got to a Super Bowl, was elected in 2023.
In another change, the Hall reduced the waiting period for coaches to be out of the game before they are eligible for induction from five years to one.
That means Belichick is eligible for nomination next season – and could mean this might be Holmgren’s best shot to get in.
Holmgren made it to the finalist stage this year ahead of three other coaches who have two Super Bowl wins – Tom Coughlin, George Seifert and Mike Shanahan.
With those and other worthy coaches still waiting to get in, it might not be easy for Holmgren to again reach finalist stage.
(Former Seahawks, Rams and Bills coach Chuck Knox also was among the coaching semifinalists this year.)
Holmgren is the only finalist on the ballot with Seahawks ties (guard Jahri Evans was on roster for a month during training camp in 2016, but because he never played in a regular-season game with the team he is not considered as a former Seahawk for Hall of Fame purposes.)
Safety Earl Thomas made it to the semifinalist stage in his first year of eligibility as did running back Ricky Watters, but neither made it to the finalist stage.
Holmgren is attempting to become the 17th person with Seahawks ties to make it to the Hall.
Two former Seahawks coaches are in the Hall – Mike McCormack and Tom Flores.
Each are in mostly for accomplishments with other teams (McCormack as a player in the 1950s and 1960s during a time he was considered one of the best offensive tackles in the game and Flores for a Raiders coaching tenure that included two Super Bowl wins).
Holmgren’s supporters note that Green Bay had been to the playoffs just twice from the end of Vince Lombardi’s tenure in 1967 until he arrived in 1992 and got them to the Super Bowl five years later, and that the Seahawks had just one division title and four playoff appearances before Holmgren arrived and got them to the postseason six times with five division titles.
During his weekly appearance Wednesday on Sports Radio KJR, Holmgren said he’s been trying not to worry too much about the pending announcement.
“In all honesty I’m more at peace than my wife or my kids or my grandkids,” he said. “They are chomping at the bit.”
Holmgren said his wife, Kathy, has decided they will not watch the NFL Honors show and go out to dinner instead.
“It’s a little bit rolling the dice,” he said of the process of attempting to achieve NFL immortality.
“If it doesn’t work, if I don’t get in, life still goes on.”