RENTON, Wash. – Sports cliches can come from either side of the podium at a news conference.
Coaches taking it “one day at a time” or athletes not wanting to “shoot ourselves in the foot” have become commonplace in the Q&As.
But reporters can be guilty of the same offense with their questioning. One that comes to mind is, “Is this a must-win game?” That rarely gets much of a response, as most pros who are still in playoff contention look at every game as a must-win.
All that said – Sundays’ road game vs. the Cardinals is about as close as it gets to a “we really cannot lose this one” for the Seahawks. I’ll put my forecast out there: If the Seahawks win Sunday, they’ll make the postseason. If not, they won’t.
Most would agree that just one NFC West team is going to reach the playoffs this season, as their out of division competitors for the wild card have commanding leads. Seattle sits atop the division at 7-5, with the Cardinals and Rams at 6-6 and the reigning NFC champion 49ers at 5-7.
A Seahawks win would essentially put the Cardinals – who lost to Seattle two Sundays ago – three games back. And though the Seahawks still have to play the Packers (9-3) and Vikings (10-2) – not to mention a Rams team that won at Lumen Field last month – a win Sunday sets them up to host a playoff game come January. A loss likely takes them out.
This isn’t just me spitballing. Playoff projection models say the same thing.
Aaron Schatz, the chief analytics officer at FTNFantasy.com, ran simulations that give the Seahawks a 62% chance to make the playoffs if they beat Arizona on Sunday and a mere 11% if they lose. He says the Cardinals would have a 71% chance to make the playoffs with a victory and 17% if they lose.
NFL.com‘s model has the Seahawks with a 76% chance to get an 18th game if they win Sunday and a 26% chance if they lose. In other words, this essentially is a playoff game coming up. The Seahawks know this.
“Everyone knows what’s at stake,” Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith said. “It’s a big game because it’s the next game, but also a division game, and so we’re fighting to get into the playoffs. They are as well, so it should be a great matchup.”
Smith said he doesn’t spend much time sorting through potential playoff tiebreakers – only that his team is in control of its fate. In his mind, the Seahawks need to win out, even if that’s not quite true.
What is true is that the Seahawks are 3-4 against conference opponents and would be unlikely to leap a team such as Washington (8-5 overall, 5-3 in the NFC) for a wild-card spot. What’s also true is the rest of the NFC is so stacked that the division title is the only path to the playoffs.
Fortunately for the Seahawks, some reinforcements are coming – namely linebacker Uchenna Nwosu. He missed much of last season because of a pectoral injury and all but one game this season because of knee and thigh injuries. But he came off injured reserve Thursday and is a few games from potentially being a division winner for the first time since he joined Seattle in 2022.
His thoughts on the matter?
“To be honest, nobody’s really thinking about it. We talk about it because it’s real, but we’re just thinking about trying to win every game, game by game,” Nwosu said. “We know the rest of the schedule is pretty much do or die from here.”
So no one’s thinking about it … but they’re talking about it? Yeah, pretty sure most people in that locker room know the significance of this game.
Still, it’s standard procedure for players to downplay the magnitude of certain matchups. There is danger in putting too big of an emphasis on one contest, as excess emotion or anxiety could affect performance.
If cliches are a theme for the day, then “not getting too high or too low” is one that applies here. But the fans know what this is. The Seahawks, 2½-point underdogs in this game, might be favored only one more time this season – when they play Chicago in late December.
It seems borderline amazing that they are here in the first place. After losing five of their past six going into the bye week, an unraveling seemed exponentially more likely than this three-game winning streak they’ve put together.
But Seattle has to make it four in a row Sunday. A playoff game – at home, mind you – probably depends on it.