SEATTLE – There are no odds in the sportsbooks for NFL team win totals next season. It’s not quite right to post those numbers when free agency is still going and the draft awaits.
But I imagine when it’s time to do so, the oddsmakers are going to be baffled when it comes to the Seahawks. Next season’s squad is one of the greatest unknowns in the history of the franchise.
A few weeks ago, it seemed like we might have had a better idea as to where Seattle stood. It was a team that went 10-7 last season and 9-8 in the two years before that. Quarterback Geno Smith was still on the roster – receiver DK Metcalf, too. Assuming the Seahawks could play defense like they did in the second half of last season, it was fair to think they might be able to get into the playoffs next season or nab the NFC West crown.
But the Seahawks of February are a lot different than the Seahawks of March. Smith and Metcalf were traded, and longtime receiver Tyler Lockett was released. Since then, the team has signed quarterback Sam Darnold, edge player DeMarcus Lawrence and receiver Cooper Kupp. The latter is the holy trinity of The Impossible To Know What To Expect. You could fit a redwood between the floor and ceiling for all three of these guys.
Darnold, for example, just had a Pro Bowl season following six years of mediocre-at-best production. He threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns for the Vikings last season, getting picked off just 12 times. When introduced to the Seattle media Thursday, he attributed much of his 2024 success to learning how to protect the football. But he also had elite talent around him in pass catchers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson – not to mention running back Aaron Jones and a top-10 offensive line, according to Pro Football Network.
Should fans expect Darnold to play like that in Seattle? Especially considering his well-documented struggles in the final two (and most important) games of last season?
One could ask similar questions of Lawrence. He is the most decorated player on the Seahawks’ defense right now, having made four Pro Bowls – including two straight in 2022 and 2023. But he is also 33 years old and coming off a foot injury that limited him to four games last season. It wasn’t the type of injury that cuts someone’s career short, but 33 is an age when players who rely on explosiveness tend to drop off. As I’ve mentioned previously, Lockett, 32, was a shell of his 30-year-old self.
And then there is Kupp, who may be the most accomplished of all the Seahawks. He is a Super Bowl MVP who made first-team All-Pro in 2021 when he earned NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors and finished third in the MVP voting. But like Darnold, he has just one season in which he truly stood out.
The past three have been marred by injuries as he played nine games in 2022, 12 in 2023 and 12 last season. A name such as Kupp’s rings out. But there is a reason his three-year, $45 million contract is less than half of what the league’s top wideouts earn. Seattle is banking on him being healthy and returning somewhere close to his old form. That’s a gamble.
I’m not sure if the following is quite an apples-to-apples comparison, but it’s not a major stretch, either. These three signings remind me of Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto acquiring Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco two offseasons ago. All were highly productive when healthy in recent seasons, but all had battled injuries before coming to Seattle. Dipoto’s gamble didn’t pay off, as Garver and Haniger each finished with a negative WAR and Polanco underwhelmed with a WAR of 1.3.
Darnold wasn’t sidelined last season the way Kupp and Lawrence were, but he still inspires a question mark with his change of scenery. So it’s worth asking: Have the Seahawks improved? I’m not convinced. Yet.
What the Seahawks showed last year is that their defense has improved drastically. They were in the bottom quartet in the NFL in total defense during their past three years under Pete Carroll, and rose to 14th last season. They also still have salary-cap space to make more moves, and are preparing for a draft in which their needs (see: offensive line) are clear.
Will they fill out the roster as needed? Like expectations for Darnold, Lawrence, Kupp and this whole season – your guess is as good as mine.