RENTON, Wash. – Even though the playoffs are out of reach, a lot is on the line for quarterback Geno Smith on Sunday when the Seahawks play the Rams in Inglewood, California.
Specifically, Smith can reach a few statistical milestones:
• He can become the 19th quarterback in NFL history to finish a season with a completion percentage of 70% or better. He’s at 70.2%.
• He can surpass franchise records he holds in attempts, completions and yards.
• He also can achieve three $2 million incentives, or what are officially roster-bonus escalators.
Which, yes, means that in the shadows of Hollywood, Smith on Sunday could be referred to as having a chance to play the role of the $6 million man.
The incentives are part of a three-year contract he signed in March 2023.
That deal initially was reported to be worth up to $105 million over three years.
But $30 million consists of roster-bonus escalators for the 2024 and 2025 seasons, all based on matching or surpassing numbers he achieved in 2022.
The deal contained $27.3 million guaranteed, which was a significant payday for Smith, who until then had never made more than $7 million in a season.
But by including some not-insignificant incentives, the contract structure gave Seattle some salary-cap wiggle room and a little of a hedge if Smith regressed.
The deal compelled then-coach Pete Carroll to say Smith was “gambling a little bit on himself.”
Smith said at the time the incentives were a way “for both parties to make it work.”
Smith did not achieve any of the incentives in 2023, when he earned $27.3 million in salary and roster bonuses.
But with just the Rams game left this season, three are in reach this year – surpassing 4,282 yards and a completion percentage of 69.8% as well as Seattle finishing with 10 wins.
Smith is 186 from the yardage mark.
As noted, he enters the game with a completion percentage of 70.2.
And with the Seahawks at 9-7 and facing a Rams team resting at least seven starters with the NFC West title locked up, the 10th win is well in reach.
There are also escalators tied to touchdown passes and passer rating that Smith won’t reach. He has 17 TDs compared with 30 in 2022 and a rating of 90.5 compared with 100.9.
Smith could also have earned an additional $5 million each year if he achieved all five of the statistical and win incentives.
If Smith reaches the three numbers Sunday, a $10 million bonus he is due to receive if he is on the roster March 16 – or the fifth day of the new league year – would increase to $16 million.
Smith, who is due to earn $26.4 million this season in salary and other bonuses, didn’t pretend that he forgot about the incentives when he met the media this week.
“Obviously, it’s going to be on your mind,” he said Thursday.
“You know about it. But you try not to think about it. You just go out there and do the right thing and let the chips fall where they may.”
One person rooting for him to reach the numbers is Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald.
During his news conference Wednesday, Macdonald referred to the incentives some players have in their contracts as among the motivating factors to beat the Rams.
“I guess it’s one of those things where you’re probably going to look – there is financial things involved with it, which you want your guys to hit those numbers,” Macdonald said.
“If it’s within your power, you’re going to try to make that come to life – create as many opportunities for those guys as possible all within the lens of what’s best for the team and trying to win.
“Might have a couple ongoing jokes with a couple of the guys on some of those things. They’re going to be great. They’re approaching it the right way. But, yeah, you’re working together with that. That’s definitely something you want to help the guys with.”
Smith said he appreciated Macdonald’s comments and “just being open and honest about it. Coach understands. He’s always been that way, and I think that’s what makes him who he is. I think that’s why guys respect him, because he’s pretty honest in his assessment with everything. Appreciate him for that.”
Smith, though, said the incentives won’t change how he approaches Sunday’s game.
“As far as milestones and stuff, I kind of let those things just take care of themselves,” he said. “I got to go out there and play football, do the right thing no matter what happens. Yeah, you want to hit those, you want to achieve all the things you can achieve but well within the respects of the game, so (I’m) just going out there and playing football.”
Hitting the incentives wouldn’t only make Smith richer.
They could also influence his future with the team.
Reaching all three incentives would increase his salary-cap hit for 2025 to $44.8 million, which includes a $14.8 million salary and a prorated share of the signing bonus he received of $13.8 million.
That would be the eighth-highest cap hit of any NFL QB in 2025 and ahead of players such as Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson ($43.65 million) and Buffalo’s Josh Allen ($43.231), both league MVP candidates.
In and of itself, it’s not necessarily a prohibitive number.
But the Seahawks are also listed as being more than $8 million over the cap for 2025, meaning some cost-cutting moves will be necessary.
Adding $6 million would make Seattle’s salary-cap situation even dicier.
Former agent Joel Corry, who writes about NFL financial issues for CBS Sports, wrote a few days ago on the social-media platform X: “Seattle isn’t in a good position for a Geno Smith 2025 salary cap number that’s $38.5M but could be as much as $44.5M.”
It’s been assumed that Smith will approach the team about a new deal this offseason – he acknowledged he did so last offseason.
The Seahawks didn’t want to negotiate then, in large part because of their precedent to not redo contracts with more than a year remaining.
But they might want to negotiate now to bring down that cap hit, and ensure that Smith isn’t playing the 2025 season as a pending free agent, something Seattle has typically tried to avoid with core players.
Smith, meanwhile, could use that $44.5 million number as a rough starting point.
The general assumption is that any Seahawks decision regarding Smith will happen by the time the roster bonus is due.
This week, Smith said that for now, he’s not looking past the Rams game.
“Shoot, I can’t wait,” he said. “I enjoy playing football. Every opportunity you get, man, like for young guys or anybody listening, they’re all valuable. And you know for me, man, I look forward to the next opportunity. And so that’s just this, the next opportunity, and really looking forward to it.”