The Seattle Seahawks host the Miami Dolphins looking to stay undefeated and atop the NFC West at 3-0.
Has the curse of losing to backup QBs gone with Pete Carroll?
Maybe the term “curse” is a bit of an exaggeration, but the Seattle Seahawks have a long history of losses to backup QBs. In fact, Colt McCoy has 11 wins as a starter and 3 of them were against the Seahawks.
Some of these losses were quite painful, like against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Lumen Field in a total lack of enthusiasm, or to the Chicago Bears in a Seattle snowstorm with a two-point conversion in a defensive blackout. Finally, the loss that knocked us out of the 2017 playoffs with Blair Walsh’s missed field goal, with Drew Stanton at QB for the Arizona Cardinals.
2023
Week 17: Pittsburgh Steelers – Mason Rudolph – Loss
Week 08: Cleveland Browns – PJ Walker – Win
Week 07: Arizona Cardinals – Josh Dobbs – Win
Week 03: Carolina Panthers – Andy Dalton – Win
2022
Week 13: Los Angeles Rams – John Wolford – Win
Week 03: New Orleans Saints – Andy Dalton – Loss
Week 02: San Francisco 49ers – Jimmy Garoppolo (after Trey Lance injury) – Loss
2021
Week 11 – Arizona Cardinals – Colt McCoy – Loss
Week 16 – Chicago Bears – Nick Foles – Loss
Week 17 – Detroit Lions – Tim Boyle – Win
2020
Week 13 – New York Giants – Colt McCoy – Loss
Week 15 – Washington Commanders – Dwayne Haskins – Win
Week 17 – San Francisco 49ers – C.J. Beathard – Win
2019
Week 3 – New Orleans Saints – Teddy Bridgewater – Loss
Week 8 – Atlanta Falcons – Matt Schaub – Win
2018
Week 13 – San Francisco 49ers – Nick Mullens – Win
Week 15 – San Francisco 49ers – Nick Mullens – Loss
2017
Week 2 – San Francisco 49ers – Brian Hoyer – Win
Week 4 – Indianapolis Colts – Jacoby Brissett – Win
Week 17 – Arizona Cardinals – Drew Stanton – Win
Week 12 – San Francisco 49ers – C.J. Beathard – Win
Week 17 – Arizona Cardinals – Drew Stanton – Loss
We’ll have the real test of whether it’s some Seahawks mystique or Pete’s era. Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion (the third diagnosed of his NFL career) and won’t be coming to Seattle; the starter will be Skylar Thompson, one of only two QBs drafted in 2022 who stayed with the same team (the other is Brock Purdy).
Thompson has started two games in his career and appeared in nine, completing 57.1 percent of his passes for 614 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. He is 1-1 as a starter.
The Dolphins’ main offensive threats
Obviously, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the biggest threats in the passing game. However, the offense will be led by a backup QB. In addition, Hill and Waddle are still shy of the season, combining for 304 receiving yards in 2 games.
Skylar Thompson went 8/14, 80 yards, 1 sack, no TD, no turnovers. All 80 yards came on passes that were no more than 19 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Therefore, what we should see from Miami is a fast-paced, short-passing attack and a lot, I repeat, a lot of running.
De’Von Achane will face a defense that allowed 185 rushing yards versus the New England Patriots in Week 2.
Whether on the ground or through the air on short passes, the second-year player should be used a lot against the Seahawks. Achane has 265 scrimmage yards on 46 touches this season.
After giving up 8 recs for 109 yards to Hunter Henry, one name to keep an eye on is veteran tight end Jonnu Smith.
The versatile TE plays as a slot, wide receiver, and even comes from the backfield. In the last game, he was the team’s leader in targets (8) and second in yards with 53 on 6 receptions. He’s mainly involved in screen plays, which has been one of Seattle’s Achilles’ heels.
Can the running game survive without Ken Walker?
The Dolphins rush defense gave up 78 yards to James Cook and 2 TDs.
The Bills call a run with 6 OLs in the formation. The Dolphins defense is extremely poorly positioned. The TE blocks the EDGE (Quinton Bell, No. 56) and the Bills are able to create a 4×2 inside the line of scrimmage, creating immediate space for James Cook. He advances and basically has only the safety to try to prevent the TD.
Another test and another chance for the offensive line
Miami managed 13 pressures against the Bills’ good OL, with a group that also uses a lot of blitzing. In other words, the team will have to worry about Calais Campbell, Chop Robinson, Zach Sieler, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jaelan Philips, as well as David Long, Jevon Holland, and former Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks coming in on occasional blitzes.
The Seahawks offensive line ranks 31st in pass block win rate (38%) and 31st in run block win rate (65%). The offensive line gave up 12 pressures against the Patriots and 9 against the Denver Broncos.
Run Defense on EDGEs
A problem that worries me, especially when we are going to face a RB in good shape, is the discipline of the EDGEs. The team struggled a bit in containing, whether to keep the QBs inside the pocket or the runs in the middle of the line. Achane is a speedy running back who only needs one cut to run to the end zone. Fourteen of Miami’s 21 runs are to the OT’s outside shoulder, totaling 54 of the Dolphins’ 83 rushing yards.
The importance of the pass rush
Against the Bills, the Dolphins offensive line surrendered 15 pressures (2 sacks, 3 hits and 10 hurries). 7 of those pressures were surrendered by RT Austin Jackson, so Mike Macdonald may want to think of ways to stress that side of the offensive line. LT Kendall Lamm surrendered two pressures when he came in for the injured Terron Armstead.
QBs under pressure tend to make poor decisions. When we talk about a backup QB, the tendency to make more mistakes increases. I believe the Seahawks’ game plan should consist of applying a lot of pressure with 4-man up front to avoid short windows and take away Thompson’s rhythm.
Final Thoughts
Seattle has a real chance to start the season 3-0. It won’t be easy, don’t be fooled by the fact that the Dolphins have a backup QB; the NFL is a very competitive league. Our team is young, under construction and needs to adjust to the mistakes it has been making, Miami can still get a win even with some absences.