The Seahawks notched their first division win of the season in dramatic fashion. Now can they win another game against an NFC West rival and end a four-game home losing streak?
The Seattle Seahawks got an important win against the San Francisco 49ers last week, but if the team still dreams of making the playoffs, the work is far from over. In the next three weeks, the Seahawks will face the Arizona Cardinals twice (and play the hapless New York Jets in between those games), and the team needs to win to control its own destiny in the NFC West. A win over the Cardinals and a loss by the Los Angeles Rams to the Philadelphia Eagles would put Seattle back on top of the division.
What are the main keys to the game? Let’s go through them in our Week 12 game preview.
The Seahawks need to keep Kyler Murray in the pocket
Don’t let the topic title fool you. Kyler Murray is an excellent passer, both inside and outside the pocket. Note in the video above that the Cardinals call a variation of the Four Verticals. Even with an easier option with Elijah Higgins (No. 84) on the out route, Murray decides to throw to Trey McBride (we’ll talk about him later), who is in the middle of four defenders, showing excellent accuracy.
My biggest concern is his running. Murray is fourth among QBs (behind Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts) in rushing yards, with 371 yards and 4 TDs. He is second in yards per carry average with 8.1, behind rookie Drake Maye (9.3).
The problem is that Murray is different from the mobile QBs the Seahawks have faced. He won’t seek contact like Josh Allen; in fact he will always run away from it. Kyler is extremely agile and an excellent athlete who can take advantage of any space left by the defense.
The constant threat of the Cardinals’ excellent running game opens up space for an offense that uses a lot of zone-read. As mentioned above, Murray does everything he can to avoid contact, but he is a challenge to tackle in the open field in 1-on-1 situations.
So, one way to try to eliminate this threat is to try to make him run as much inside as possible, between of the tackles, to get him out of his comfort zone. The problem is that the Seahawks had a lot of trouble sealing the edge against the 49ers. Brock Purdy, who is not known for being a super mobile QB, managed 40 yards on five attempts plus a TD on the ground.
It seems that Mike Macdonald gives his DLs a lot of freedom to improvise tricks on the line. In this play, for example, Dre’Mont Jones sees an opportunity to pressure the QB, but ends up allowing Purdy to escape to the edge.
Another big test for the Seahawks’ front seven
I believe that one reason for joy for the fans is that in the last two games is the fact that the Seahawks held Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey to 69 and 79 rushing yards, respectively. Life won’t be any easier against the 49ers, since the running game is a fundamental part of the Arizona game plan.
Arizona’s starters include Paris Johnson Jr., Evan Brown (former Seahawk), Hjalte Froholdt, Trystan Colon, and Kelvin Beachum. Perhaps none of these names have the weight of a Trent Williams or even Rob Havenstein. However, this Cardinals OL has been very well coached and plays on the field much more than one would expect when reading the depth chart.
The bread and butter of this ground attack is the Counter. This run consists of the running back threatening to run to one side before going the other way. The OL blocks in the initial direction of the RB and the team send two pullers on the opposite side to serve as lead blockers with the intention of creating a gap in the middle of the DL.
This is a great matchup when your RB is James Conner, the league leader in missed tackles forced among RBs with 49 (three more than Derrick Henry). With this ability to break tackles, he is second in runs for 10+ yards with 23, behind only Saquon Barkley’s 26. He leads the league in gap runs (as exemplified by the counter) with 112 carries, 20 more than the second-placed Kyren Williams.
Conner has six games with 100+ yards from scrimmage. Of the four games in which he did not reach that mark, the Cardinals lost three. The only game they won was against the Dolphins, basically on the final play.
The new Seahawks linebacker duo will not have an easy task
The Seahawks received a lot of praise for their new inside linebacker duo of Ernest Jones and Tyrice Knight. In addition to the challenge of containing the running game, they will have a lot to worry about against the pass. Trey McBride is one of the team’s standouts. The former Colorado State player boasts the following numbers:
- 4th in targets (61);
- 3rd in receptions (49);
- 3rd in yards (552);
- 3rd in yards against zone defense (410);
He is important because Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s offense uses play-action a lot, especially against man-to-man defense. He is an athletic tight end, so any time the linebackers are fooled by play-action it will be enough for him to find a window behind them.
Note that it is not just McBride who has benefited from play-action. Elijah Higgins has managed to be a good weapon in this concept, because the play design favors him. He even has two TDs this season.
The Seahawks offensive line’s chance to establish itself?
The OL has been a problem week after week for the Seahawks. With the return of Abe Lucas and the excellent play of Olu Oluwatimi, this has given rise to a glimmer of hope for the future.
Week 12 brings the Cardinals, who are the 30th ranked team in pressure rate. They are only ahead of the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers. This could be the team’s chance to have a good game in this regard and gain confidence for the following weeks.
The team’s leader in pressures is LJ Collier—yes, that LJ Collier—with 21 (but only 1 sack). He is followed by the swiss army knife of the front seven, Zaven Collins, with 16 (and a team-leading 4 sacks), then Dante Stills (4 sacks) and Roy Lopez (1 sack) with 13, and Dennis Gardeck (3 sacks) with 13. No other player on the roster has 10 or more pressures. Gardeck is out for the season with a torn ACL.
It’s worth remembering that the Cardinals traded for Baron Browning at the trade deadline (paying the same value that Seattle paid for Trevis Gipson, but for a much better player).
Still…
Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis have been extremely creative in trying to find ways out of this. They gave the Lions’ excellent offensive line a hard time in the matchup between them.
To contain the running game, a technique they use a lot is the Pirate Stunt. This consists of a play in which the entire defensive line stunts inside. The result was effective and in three of thee last four games they have contained their opponents to less than 80 yards.
When it comes to pressuring the QB, they have also been creative, whether it’s in different blitzes or with simulated pressure (something Mike Macdonald uses a lot).
In this play they threaten with five players on the line of scrimmage. The moment the center lowers his head for the snap, the linebacker who was threatening the blitz drops. This doesn’t give the OL time to adjust and the Lions are left with four players against just two on the right side, leaving a rusher against the RB (which isn’t ideal) and allowing the edge to go 1-on-1. The sack happens after the defenders win their battles.
Here they use simulated pressure, something that gave Jared Goff a lot of headaches. Instead of the five who threaten, only four go after the QB. The Cardinals drop Dennis Gardeck to cover the short route. Goff doesn’t realize this and trying to pass on the short route is intercepted.
Final Thoughts
Beating the 49ers gave the Seahawks the right to control their playoff fate. However, that doesn’t mean it’s an easy task. The team has to face the division leader twice in three weeks and they have to win. Also remember that the Cardinals are coming off a bye after two easy wins against the Chicago Bears and New York Jets.
Make no mistake, however, as the Cardinals gave the Bills a hard time in Week 1, losing by just one possession to both them and the Lions. They are the most consistent team in the division.
If the Seahawks want to go far, they need to beat the best!
Go Hawks!