SEATTLE – The easy conclusion assessing the beginning of what already looks to be one of the maddest months of March in team history is that the Seahawks’ decision-makers have decided to rebuild.
How else to view cutting the second-leading receiver in team history in Tyler Lockett; learning their most dangerous remaining playmaker DK Metcalf wants to be dealt; and trading quarterback Geno Smith, all in the span of about 54 hours from Wednesday morning to Friday afternoon?
But it’s probably not the right conclusion.
By all accounts, the three are independent events that coincided with the time of year when big moves happen, in between the combine and through the free-agent signing period.
Lockett’s departure had been foreshadowed for a year; Metcalf’s trade request came seemingly out of the blue after recent talks between the two sides; and the Smith deal was made once it became clear to the Seahawks that the two sides were not close on a new deal and a move had to happen quickly if the team was going to find a suitable replacement.
That the Seahawks appear willing to hang onto Metcalf in 2025 if a deal they like can’t be made and appear set to make a run at Sam Darnold as Smith’s replacement seem to indicate winning next season is still the prime goal.
But it comes at a precarious time for the franchise.
The Super Bowl title in 2013 is becoming a distant memory and fans last season appeared increasingly content to sell their tickets to those of the opposing team.
It’s also a critical time for general manager John Schneider.
The team’s decision to move on from Pete Carroll in 2023 and let Schneider choose a new coach was a sign of faith.
But the time when Schneider’s contract runs out – it goes through the draft of 2027 – is suddenly growing nearer.
After a reset in 2022 with Smith taking over for Russell Wilson and another reset in 2024 with Mike Macdonald taking over for Carroll, there will again be big change in 2025 with a second-year head coach, a first-year offensive coordinator and a new quarterback.
This reset, Schneider knows as well as anyone, had better work.
Here are four more questions and an attempt at answers in the wake of Friday’s stunning news.
What changed from wanting to keep Smith to suddenly dealing him?
The team’s strong comments at the combine stating Smith would be their guy in 2025 don’t appear to have been a smokescreen, though it’s worth remembering.
Schneider did hedge in one statement, understanding that a deal still needed to get done and saying, “We expect him to be our guy but we want to do what’s right, too.”
The team wanted to keep Smith and gave him what it felt was a fair offer as an extension of his current contract; he is due to make $31 million in 2025 on what is the final season of the three-year deal signed in March 2023.
While reports vary, one person with knowledge of the situation said the offer was a two-year deal in the $40-45 million per year range, similar to that of Matthew Stafford of the Rams, who has a four-year, $160 million deal with L.A. That would have kept Smith under contract through the 2027 season.
The team made the offer early in the week and hoped to wrap things up by the end of the week.
Seattle, instead, is said to have received no counteroffer.
A report from Fox Sports stated Smith requested a trade on Thursday.
Regardless, the team getting no counteroffer from Smith was all it needed to know that a deal might not be getting done before the free-agent signing period, and most critically, March 17 when Smith was due a $16 million roster bonus.
So, the Seahawks decided to act quickly, move on and take advantage of free agency and the draft, also knowing there was an easy potential trading partner – the Raiders and Carroll.
Smith is undoubtedly happy to reunite with Carroll, who took Las Vegas’ head coaching job in January, and play half of his games indoors.
The Raiders’ options were also already dwindling when Stafford and the Rams agreed to a restructured deal a week ago Friday, taking away the potential he’d hit the market.
Additionally, Tuesday’s franchise-tag deadline passed without the Vikings using it on Darnold, making it clear he will become a free agent.
Darnold played last season on a one-year, $10 million deal, becoming the starter when rookie J.J. McCarthy was sidelined with a knee injury.
But the Vikings view McCarthy as their long-term QB and didn’t want to commit to a big deal for Darnold.
Seattle, the thought is, will likely now take the money it was going to give Smith and spend it on Darnold – albeit, possibly having to give more years and maybe a bit more money overall.
A three-year deal that provides flexibility in Year 3 would also allow the Seahawks to draft a quarterback.
Also making Darnold attractive are some ties with coaches on the staff.
New Seattle OC Klint Kubiak coached Darnold with the 49ers in 2023 as offensive passing game specialist.
New Seahawks run game coordinator and senior offensive assistant Rick Dennison was the offensive line coach in 2018 with the Jets when Darnold was drafted by New York third overall.
Seahawks receivers coach Frisman Jackson was the offensive passing game coordinator with the Panthers in 2021 when Darnold was there.
Seahawks strength and conditioning coach Ivan Lewis was also at USC for all of Darnold’s career there.
So there is familiarity and opportunity for Darnold, and need for Seattle.
But Seattle was going to have to act quickly when it came to Smith to have a chance at Darnold when the negotiating period begins Monday at 9 a.m.
So that’s what the Seahawks did.
What’s Seattle’s draft situation now?
After some initial confusion, it was confirmed the Seahawks got the lesser of the Raiders’ two third-round picks, No. 92, which Las Vegas got from the Jets in return for receiver Davante Adams, a pick the Jets originally got from Detroit during the 2024 draft.
To some, that might not seem like much for Smith.
But he turns 35 in October and it’s the Raiders who now have to work out a longer deal for him, while the Seahawks get the cap space and cash to make an immediate run at a replacement.
Seattle is projected to have nine picks: Nos. 18, 50, 82, 92, 137, 173, 186, 212 and 236.
That includes three projected compensatory picks – one each in rounds four, five and six – for free agents lost.
The NFL is expected to announce the comp picks soon and confirm the official order.
But the top four won’t change, giving Seattle four picks in the top 100 and ample capital to move up if desired.
Will the Smith trade change things with Metcalf?
It’s not thought the Smith trade had anything to do with Metcalf’s request, and the Seahawks are still thought willing to wait it out if a good deal doesn’t come along for Metcalf.
ESPN’s Lindsey Thiry posted on the social-media platform X after the Smith trade that “there’s some optimism this could alter the conversation” with Metcalf.
That came after a report from Dianna Russini of The Athletic that one of Metcalf’s reasons for wanting out is to find a “more stable” quarterback situation.
Metcalf and Smith had a couple of incidents last season of not seeming to be on the same page in some key situations, notably the early home loss to the 49ers.
Might Metcalf be more amenable to staying with Darnold as QB?
That question certainly seems in the air.
And it’s worth noting Darnold and Metcalf are represented by the same agency, the football arm of Creative Arts Agency. CAA also represents Seahawk Devon Witherspoon.
Could Russell Wilson be an option?
No.
It’s an obvious thought, given his ties to the team and his availability as a free agent.
But it’s not thought the organization wants to go down that road again, even if for some reason Wilson wanted to.
It may be worth remembering it was Schneider who was working on a deal to trade Wilson in 2021 before Carroll was thought to have vetoed it. By the time a trade was made in 2022, it was as much an organizational decision to move on and not just simply Schneider’s.
If things don’t work out with Darnold, the Seahawks will explore other options that could include Aaron Rodgers – Schneider was in Green Bay’s front office when Rodgers was drafted in 2005 until coming to Seattle in 2010 – and Justin Fields if he doesn’t re-sign with the Steelers.
But all signs point to Darnold being target No. 1 and Seattle making the decision to trade Smith with that in mind.
So the plan appears to be that by early next week, Seattle will have essentially traded Smith for Darnold and a third-round pick.