The Seahawks ended their losing streak against the 49ers. Can they end their four-game home losing streak next?
Good morning, Seattle Seahawks fans! It’s the week before Thanksgiving, and I’m thankful that the Seahawks (5-5) are still in the playoff hunt. That glimmer of hope could quickly vanish if the Seahawks fail to take care of business at home against the Arizona Cardinals (6-4). It’s the first of two meetings in three weeks for these teams, and the NFC West race could just about be decided by the end of the second meeting.
It’s time for some predictions! Before we get into this week, let’s revisit the predictions from the 49ers game!
Bold prediction: Christian McCaffrey held under 100 yards rushing
Not just under 100! He only had 79 yards rushing on sub-standard efficiency.
Seahawks offense prediction: Zero turnovers
Sigh. We might have to accept that the Seahawks are just prone to this. That Geno Smith interception was astonishingly bad. Good thing he made up for it and then some at the end.
Seahawks defense prediction: Sack drought ends
Derick Hall recorded a “sack” in the form of Brock Purdy tripping himself. Dre’Mont Jones had a legit sack when he planted Purdy in the backfield and denied the 49ers even an end-of-half field goal try.
Enemy prediction: 49ers win the red zone battle
Nope! The Seahawks were 2-for-2 in the red zone, whereas the 49ers were 2-for-3. Their one failure was after Geno’s interception.
Game prediction: Seahawks lose, but it’ll be their closest, most competitive loss during this streak
Well… it almost was a close, competitive loss. In fact, it was a win!
Will I predict a win on this occasion? Find out shortly…
Bold prediction: Seahawks finally score an opening drive touchdown
The Seahawks have been pretty bad on opening drives.
Interception
Punt
Field Goal
Punt
Punt
Interception
Field Goal
Punt
Punt
Field Goal
You have to go back to the Drew Lock emergency start against the San Francisco 49ers for the Seahawks’ last opening drive TD. Geno Smith’s last opening drive TD was the preceding week versus the Dallas Cowboys.
I say that this annoying streak comes to an end! The Cardinals have allowed three opening drive touchdowns (vs. Dolphins, vs. Lions, vs. Commanders) so they can be had out of the gate. If there was ever a time to come out flying, it’s now.
Seahawks offense prediction: DK Metcalf gets at least 60 receiving yards and a touchdown
For whatever reason, DK Metcalf has not been a huge factor on offense against the Cardinals. His most famous play against them was on defense, and you know what I’m talking about. Over nine games, he has just 23 catches (on 53 targets) for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns, and has never crossed 60 yards in any of those meetings.
This is the most pass-heavy offense Metcalf has ever played in, and the Cardinals secondary outside of Budda Baker, while much improved, is not elite. Metcalf will have targets, he will have opportunities to make big plays, and I think he’ll have a highly productive afternoon and finally cross the 60-yard threshold against Arizona. He’ll also score his first TD since Week 7 versus the Atlanta Falcons.
Seahawks defense prediction: Devon Witherspoon either gets a sack, an interception, or both
I have used this prediction before but I’m too lazy to recall which week I used it. Witherspoon is coming off his best game of the season against the 49ers, assisting on a Johnathan Hankins interception by tipping the ball up in the air. We’re still waiting for him to get either a sack or an interception, and I feel like if anyone can get Kyler Murray to the ground, it’s him. Most likely it would be a backside blitz similar to what Murray experienced against the Jets.
It’s more likely that Witherspoon gets a pick, even though Murray has only thrown three interceptions all year. Arizona’s star receiver (in the making) is Marvin Harrison Jr, but I think Riq Woolen will be primarily matched up against the rookie. Greg Dortch is third among Cardinals wide receivers in targets with 33, but the matchup I can see being intriguing is Witherspoon against Michael Wilson, who’s primarily an outside receiver but plays a fair bit in the slot.
Provided game script doesn’t lead to a run-heavy gameplan, I see Kyler testing Spoon and getting burned.
Enemy prediction: Trey McBride scores his first touchdown of the season
One of the best tight ends in the NFL has done everything except get score. The third-year player out of Colorado State broke through as a premier pass-catching option last season with 81 catches for 825 yards and 3 touchdowns. A little past the halfway mark of 2024, he has 49 catches for 552 yards… but no touchdowns.
While I’m thrilled with the defensive improvement over the past two games, the Seahawks played a 49ers squad without George Kittle and a Rams team still missing Tyler Higbee. Colby Parkinson has not really panned out as a great TE1 option for LA. McBride is a different beast who’s very athletic and has tremendous hands.
The Seahawks have allowed 49 catches for 506 yards and 3 touchdowns against tight ends, and rank 18th in DVOA vs. TEs (per FTN Fantasy). This will be a serious test for the new starting linebackers Tyrice Knight and Ernest Jones IV, as well as the safeties. I think we might be a tad disappointed with the results.
Game prediction: Seahawks end the home losing streak, re-establish NFC West lead
Yes, I believe the Seahawks will win. This is the first time since Week 5 against the New York Giants I’ve picked a Seattle victory. The Cardinals are a team on the rise but they’re not invincible. Containing Kyler Murray and James Conner will be tough, but if the defensive resurgence is for real, then we can see Arizona held in check just enough for the offense to not have to win a shootout. Murray is tops in the NFL in QBR when pressured, so discipline will be key when he’s under duress.
I am a little concerned that the offensive line will struggle more with the Cardinals’ suddenly competent defense, particularly with the simulated pressures and greater blitz rate than the San Francisco 49ers. What they lack in a dominant pass rush (30th in pass rush win rate) they make up for in creativity. Ultimately, I favor Geno Smith and Seattle’s receivers to outperform Arizona’s secondary, and for the running game (32nd in EPA/play since the Giants loss) to have its best showing in weeks. It’ll be close, it’ll be nail-biting, but the Seahawks will prevail 27-24.
As part two of this prediction, I am also backing the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Los Angeles Rams, so the combo of Seahawks win + Rams loss would be enough to send Seattle to the top of the division standings.
Go ‘Hawks!