The Optimist’s Guide to the Cougs in the CFP
Week 10 for Wazzu’s CFP hopes went about as well as Week 10 for the Cougs did. That is to say it could have been better, but it could have been worse. We got a couple of helpful results from teams immediately in front of us, and a couple of less than helpful results from teams further up the food chain. The Big XII picture is significantly clearer, but the ACC waters have been entirely muddied. The aggregate result is that the Cougars moved up three spots in the rankings, and now have four weeks to climb the six remaining spots to crack the Top 12.
Back in the olden days, we had the 538 CFP predictor to lean on in terms of percentages and how different outcomes would affect a team’s chances. We no longer have that, and there is no real strong replacement for it. Thus, all of this is going to be based more on vibes. So, you know, just like the AP rankings. As a note, the ESPN predictor has our chances at 7%, with just a 13% chance if we win out.
Without further ado, and with apologies to TV Guide, here are the Cheers and Jeers from last week.
CHEERS
- Eurotrash Jesus must have been on speed dial because BYU needed some divine intervention to stay undefeated.
- I told you weird things happen in Lawrence. I did not expect Kansas hanging 45 on Iowa State to be one of those weird things. But their offensive outburst cleared out one of the stones in Wazzu’s path to the CFP. Rock Chalk.
- The absolute woodshedding that Alabama put on LSU was wild. Everything that could go wrong for the Bayou Bengals did go wrong. It was a perfect result for the Cougs because it allowed us to jump LSU in the rankings. So we’ll take it and run.
- The final score of the game belies how soundly Virginia beat Pitt. But the Panthers are another team that winds up behind the Cougs in this week’s rankings.
JEERS
- There is no reason Georgia should be ranked anywhere near the Top 10. That is an absolute turd they dropped in Oxford, and they are not one of the ten best teams in college football. But SEC apologists will SEC apologize.
- Cam. My dude. Buddy. Pookie. Secure the ball please. Miami losing isn’t a huge issue, but it changes the ACC math enough that we now want SMU to win out, maybe? And win the ACC title game. And for the Canes to lose again. Unless SMU loses. Then we want Miami to win out. Also we have to worry about Clemson bid stealing now. So yeah, unclear.
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- Relying on Michigan’s offense to score points in a clutch situation is akin to relying on my three-year-old daughter to get her socks on in under five minutes before we’re late for school. No I don’t know why the cat is on the table can you just get moving pleeeeeease.
- The dismantling of Nevada by Boise State did not go nearly as smoothly as planned. The Broncos’ inability to put away the last-place Mountain West cost them the 12-spot this week. For all intents and purposes, nothing changes for Boise, but it makes it slightly harder for us with them outside of the Top 12. Also Ashton Jeanty isn’t a real person. There’s no way. He’s on pace for 348 carries, assuming a MWC championship game and a CFP game. Running backs just don’t do that in the modern game and not break down.
- Texas Tech went up on Colorado 13-0. They then proceeded to be outscored 34-7 over the next two and a half quarters. Not great, Bob. Side jeer: Tortilla throwing is awesome. Throwing water bottles, etc. onto the field and/or the opposing bench is not awesome. Just stop it.
- I want to put Washington here because they apparently lost on Saturday night, but I couldn’t find the game on TV. Anyone know why that would be? Oh, streaming you say? Exclusively on Peacock you say? Tsk tsk. Well how are their fans holding up? To shreds you say? Oh dear. The Yardage Champions are killing our strength of schedule, and that will never not be funny. Also Grady Gross just missed another field goal while I was writing this.
These teams are all dead to me. Unless we need them to win this week.
To the Games of Significance for Week 11!
NOON SLATE
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#2 OHIO STATE @ NORTHWESTERN
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES OF MAKING THE CFP: 0.01/10. Ohio State could lose this game and still make the playoffs. MUST BE NICE. There is a slim chance that Ohio State is in trap game territory as they’re looking ahead to next week’s massive game with … [checks notes] … that can’t be right … [double checks] … undefeated and #5 Indiana. What a time to be alive.
WHO YOU WANT TO WIN: Northwestern. It won’t happen, but it would be hilarious.
WHO YOU SHOULD WANT TO WIN: Northwestern. Again, the effect on WSU only registers if they lose this game AND another. Columbus might go nuclear if that happens.
WATCHABILITY: 1/10. Northwestern is not exactly capable offensively. Ohio State has been slow to start recently, but should see little in the way of resistance in this one. Most of the watchability from this one comes from the curiosity of Northwestern’s temporary stadium. It’s a weirdly cool little venue.
#3 TEXAS @ ARKANSAS
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 0.5/10. Not much change from last week’s situation with Texas; unless you think Texas can get to three losses, whether they lose this one doesn’t move the needle.
WHO YOU WANT: Arkansas. #LetChaosReign
WHO YOU SHOULD: Arkansas. There’s always the chance the Gig ‘Em Cultists clip the Horns too. Plus Jerry Jones really needs a win this year.
WATCHABILITY: 3/10. It’s a throwback to the old Southwestern Conference, which is kind of cool. Arkansas’s defense has been sporadically good. They might give up 20, they might give up 60.
UTAH @ #17 COLORADO
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EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 7/10. Colorado is still ahead of us. We still need them to not be ahead of us. The alternative is the Primes win out, beat BYU in the Big XVI title game, take the auto-bid and allow us to jump BYU (and K-State). Not impossible, but the simpler path is if BYU wins the Big XVI, so let’s go with that.
WHO YOU WANT: Utah. The Colorado Hype Machine will be in full effect first thing in the morning, with a 10 a.m. local kickoff for this one. It’s very much a Flash vs. Grit game, and it’s much easier to root for the Grit. Especially when, you know, it helps out Wazzu.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Utah, for now at least. If, for some reason, BYU slips up, then Coach Prime is likely our best shot to keep the Big XVI a one-bid league without a stolen bid.
WATCHABILITY: 9.5/10. Boulder gon’ be lit, but Utah needs to make this ugly to win.
AFTERNOON SLATE
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#4 PENN STATE @ PURDUE
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 0.1/10. Penn State is in a similar spot to Ohio State. They can drop this one and still make the playoffs. Probably. It’s a little more tenuous from the 4-spot than the 2, but they’re still relatively comfortable. The problem for Penn State if they lose is that, unlike the Buckeyes, there are no good wins left on their schedule. So there is less possibility to bounce back.
WHO YOU WANT: Purdue. Gimme that sweet, sweet chaos.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Purdue. If Penn State loses, who’s to say they don’t drop another one and fall out entirely? Stranger things have happened.
WATCHABILITY: 0/10. Thankfully for Penn State, Purdue is bad.
VIRGINIA @ #8 NOTRE DAME
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 1000/10. This is probably our most important watch this weekend. A loss drops Notre Dame completely out of the running. This is also a potential trap game with the big one looming next week with … [checks notes] … #24 and fringe-CFP-contender Army? Are we sure about this? What is even happening? Is it suddenly 1958? Regardless, a two-loss Notre Dame—even with a bounce-back win over Army—would be a tough sell for the committee, considering those losses would be to mid-tier Virginia and mid-MACtion-tier Northern Illinois.
WHO YOU WANT: Virginia. They helped us out last week, we need their services again.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Wahoowa! Thomas Jefferson’s school can provide us with money and guns and half a chance. In return we won’t ask for land, just the promise that we’ll lend a hand, and stand with them as they fight against (B18 and SEC) oppressors, and revolution is messy but now is the time to stand.
WATCHABILITY: 5/10. Neither plays a particularly aesthetically pleasing brand of ball, but Notre Dame is going to be desperate to hold on to their CFP slot. UVA is going to be riding high after knocking off Pitt and looking for another upset.
BOSTON COLLEGE @ #14 SMU
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EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: ??/10. I dunno. You figure out the ACC and let me know. Here’s the problem: the top three teams in the ACC—Miami, SMU, and Clemson—don’t play each other before any potential title game match-up. Hooray for conference bloat. I think Miami is still our best shot to get in. If they win out, they currently have the tiebreaker over Clemson and make the ACCCG. But if SMU loses, that creates a 3-way tie at the top and who knows how that shakes out. And SMU is ahead of us, so do we want them to lose so we can move up? Because that brings bid-stealing into the mix with Clemson, and potentially Miami.
WHO YOU WANT: BC for chaos reasons.
WHO YOU SHOULD: My brain hurts.
WATCHABILITY: 7/10. BC is frisky and fun, even with the quarterback change. SMU has a wide open offense. The Mustangs winning the ACC in their first year in the conference is pretty funny too.
EVENING SLATE
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#13 BOISE STATE @ SAN JOSE STATE
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 7/10. Boise State being 11th or better is looking like more and more of a necessity, particularly if someone not named Miami wins the ACC. Jumping one bid stealer would be tough; jumping two would be nearly impossible. So keep feeding the alien you have a running back, Broncos.
WHO YOU WANT: SJSU. They’re fun, and Coach Niumatalolo has them playing well.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Boise State. The Smurfs being the fifth (fourth?) conference champion is on our checklist.
WATCHABILITY: 8/10. Ashton Jeanty remains worth the price of admission, and we saw first-hand how explosive SJSU’s offense is. They’ve had some QB issues, and Emmett Brown ended up getting benched, but they’re still dangerous. And Nick Nash hasn’t gone anywhere. This has soon-to-be-Pac-X-after-dark vibes written all over it.
ARIZONA STATE @ #16 KANSAS STATE
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 10/10. Not just from a they-lose-we-move-up standpoint, but there is a gaggle of two-loss teams in the Big XVI, these two squarely among them. If Colorado were to lose, that would bring all kinds of bid stealing potential into play, so we need to start making some of those two-loss teams turn into three-loss teams. Arizona State has BYU next week, so a K-State loss here would be preferable.
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WHO YOU WANT: K-State. We don’t root for traitors.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Arizona State. As mentioned above, ASU goes to Provo next week, then they have the Territorial Cup on Thanksgiving Saturday. K-State still has Iowa State lurking as well, but the safer bet is a loss here and BYU beating the Sun Devils.
WATCHABILITY: 9/10. The Little Apple is always a good environment, and ASU is playing well. If Cam Skattebo is back in the lineup for the Devils (currently listed as questionable), that could up this to a 10.
#1 OREGON @ WISCONSIN
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 0/10. Oregon’s in with a loss. Maybe even two.
WHO YOU WANT: Da Baaaadgers. We don’t root for traitors.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Wisconsin.
WATCHABILITY: 3/10. Wisconsin is sneaky bad. And it’s not like going into Camp Randall and winning is hard. Been there, done that, yawn.
#7 TENNESSEE @ #12 GEORGIA
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 10/10. Georgia losing would be a massive boost to our chances to crack the Top 12. And again, they should not be sniffing the playoff. Tennessee losing likely wouldn’t be terrible, but unless they get shellacked like LSU did, it won’t be enough to get WSU ahead of them.
WHO YOU WANT: Probably Tennessee? Georgia’s gotten their titles. Time to move on.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Tennessee. It simplifies the path.
WATCHABILITY: 12/10. Athens gon’ be lit.
NEW MEXICO STATE @ #15 TEXAS A&M
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 1/10. A loss here by the Cultists would be another huge step up for WSU. It also doesn’t really hurt A&M considering that they’ll probably need to win the SEC to get in anyway, and that’s going to come down to the match-up against Texas in a couple weeks. But A&M is a five- or six-touchdown favorite in this one. I wouldn’t hold your breath.
WHO YOU WANT: NMSU. If they were to beat the Gig ‘Em Cult and then A&M went on to win the SEC? Hilarious.
WHO YOU SHOULD: NMSU and fairies and unicorns and rainbows.
WATCHABILITY: 0/10. The Aggies are good, and the Aggies are not. The Aggies will steamroll the Aggies, sending the Aggies back home with a black eye from the Aggies.
LATE NIGHT SLATE
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KANSAS @ #6 BYU
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES: 8/10. Kansas, we thank you for your service last week in eliminating Iowa State. Now if you would kindly roll over in Provo and allow BYU to be the clear frontrunner for the Big XVI title that would be great, thanks.
WHO YOU WANT: Rock Chalk. The Mormons haven’t exactly been dominant on their way to their lofty ranking, and it would be nice to see them knocked down to where they probably belong.
WHO YOU SHOULD: BYU. It’s not the end of the world if they lose this one, but it makes things a lot more complicated.
WATCHABILITY: 8/10. KU has been competitive in every game. Five of their six losses have been by single digits, and the sixth was by 11. Is there an emotional letdown for BYU after last week’s comeback win against Utah? In the end it doesn’t really matter because 45 minutes before kickoff in Provo…
#18 WASHINGTON STATE @ NEW MEXICO
… the main event starts. It’s frustrating how much of this is out of our hands. We’re almost wholly reliant on teams in front of us losing to make room for Wazzu to move up. Happily, chaos reigns in college football, so there’s a pretty good chance of that happening. We moved up three spots this week, and there is a legitimate possibility that we move up another three this week. Of course, the one thing that has to happen is a win in Albuquerque, preferably by a large, optically beautiful margin. New Mexico scores in bunches and gives up points in bunches. Wazzu is explosive on offense and has a tendency to give up explosives, so this has the potential to be a shootout. If the Cougs can return to a bend-but-don’t-break style that they showed early in the season, or create a few turnovers, the possibility of a lopsided result is there. Hold on to your butts.
Go Cougs.