The return of the Optimist’s Guide to the Cougs in the College Football Playoff
In a world gone mad, where college conferences are hypothetical constructs devoid of meaning; where yardage gained is more determinant of victory than points on the scoreboard; where Indiana football is going to end November with more wins than Indiana men’s basketball; our Washington State Cougars have once again inserted themselves into the race for the college football playoff, because why not. The last time we were able to write this article, the Cougs were fighting for one of four playoff spots, a North Division and Pac-12 championship, were looking to end a five game Apple Cup losing streak, and were led by a fan-favorite QB from the South whose last name starts with an M. This time, it’s a 12-team format, we’re doing it from the Mountain West conference (essentially), we don’t have the Apple Cup albatross in November to fret over because we already slayed that dragon long live the September Apple Cup, and the offense is piloted by a fan-favorite QB from the South whose last name starts with an M.
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I’m no recruiting genius, but I may have happened upon a trend.
It is a very different landscape in college football these days, and the lack of a power conference affiliation has made trying to latch on to that CFP life raft a bit more complicated for little ol’ Wazzu. But the simple reality is this:
The Cougs have five weeks to jump nine teams.
Difficult? Certainly, largely because of all the perception issues with which we are and have always been intimately familiar, and have only gotten worse with our nomadic trek through the college football independent wasteland. Impossible? Certainly not. Nine spots is only nine spots. The CFP in its four-team format had a handful of teams start between 10th and 14th that proceeded to work their way in. On top of that, 2024 has had a bit of a 2007 vibe to it. To whit, chaos. Indiana is ranked in the top ten. BYU is the best hope for the Big XVI. Vanderbilt is ranked (in the AP), and is the menace of the SEC. In this context, would it really be that wild for the Cougs to end up 12th and slip into the CFP? I submit that it would not.
Back in the olden days, we had the 538 CFP predictor to lean on in terms of percentages and how different outcomes would affect a team’s chances. We no longer have that, and there is no real strong replacement for it. Thus, all of this is going to be based more on vibes. So, you know, just like the AP rankings. As a note, the ESPN predictor has our chances at 13%, with a 26% chance if we win out.
Without further ado, let’s get to the Games of Significance for Week 10.
NOON SLATE
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PURDUE @ #2 OHIO STATE
EFFECT ON WSU’S CHANCES TO MAKE THE CFP: 1/10. Ohio State is going to be in the CFP, even with a bad loss on the schedule. Their only loss is to traditional B18 power and current #1 Oregon, so they could absorb this loss relatively comfortably.
WHO YOU WANT TO ROOT FOR: Purdue. I don’t know if Ohio State is the easiest team to root against in college football, but boy is it fun.
WHO YOU SHOULD ACTUALLY ROOT FOR: Purdue. #LetChaosReign
WATCHABILITY: 0/10. Purdue is bad, and Ohio State is coming off a nailbiter in Happy Valley, so they’ll be looking to iron out a few wrinkles. If it’s a game beyond the first quarter, I would be very surprised.
#4 MIAMI @ GEORGIA TECH
EFFECT ON WSU: 5/10. Miami is likely OK with a loss, but the ACC is mid, as the kids say, and the Canes have been playing with fire all season. It’s probably better in a big picture sense for the ACC to have one clear CFP team and a bunch of other middle-tier teams that are in the 15+ range. Plus a Miami loss means idle SMU jumps to the top of the ACC heap, which potentially steals a bid.
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WHO YOU WANT: Miami. It’s fun seeing Cam Ward do Cam Ward things in a bigger spotlight, and with a more talented supporting cast around him.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Miami. If they’re floating in that 10-15 mix because of a loss, that will make it harder for the Cougs to jump those teams. So we likely need them to win out and be clear of that chunk of wildcard teams.
WATCHABILITY: 8/10. Georgia Tech has been frisky this year, and they are not an easy out. Miami has played two games outside the state of Florida this year, and has won them by a combined eight points. One of those games was the comeback at Cal. Even when Cougs leave the Palouse they can’t escape the Cal BS.
FLORIDA @ #5 TEXAS
EFFECT ON WSU: 4/10: Texas’ schedule is weaker than anyone seems to want to admit. The two best teams on their schedule thus far are Georgia, who pantsed them, and Vanderbilt, who they narrowly escaped because the Pimp Strut Kings actually run the conference this year. The problem is that a two-loss Texas might still get in, and throws them into that 10-15 mix. A three-loss Texas is 100% out. So we’re in a weird place where we probably don’t want Texas to lose unless they lose again.
WHO YOU WANT: I dunno. Florida maybe for chaos? It’s easy to root against Texas because the schadenfreude of watching their fans melt down after every loss is super fun. But it’s not like Florida doesn’t fit that mold as well.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Probably Texas. The only potential loss on the schedule for the Longhorns is on the road at the Gig ‘Em Cult, so it’s tough to see a path to get them to three losses, unless you really believe in A&M which… football gods bless you.
WATCHABILITY: 6/10. Florida is very meh, but Texas, despite their gaudy ranking, is only slightly less meh with better athletes. It will likely be a one- maybe two-score game because Texas doesn’t convincingly put away teams that have a pulse.
AFTERNOON SLATE
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#3 GEORGIA @ #16 OLE MISS
EFFECT ON WSU: 9.5/10. Pretty simple here: Ole Miss is ahead of us. We want them not to be ahead of us. There is, however, a world where Ole Miss loses close to UGA and stays above us, hence the 0.5.
WHO YOU WANT: Ole Miss, but it’s really dependent on how you feel about Lane Kiffin.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Georgia. The likelihood of them losing enough to slip out of the Top 12 is not very high. So let’s get them in as the SEC Champs and leave them out of the mix.
WATCHABILITY: 10/10. Oxford gon’ be lit.
MICHIGAN @ #8 INDIANA
EFFECT ON WSU: 8/10. Indiana has another big one coming up in a couple weeks when they travel to Columbus, so a loss here doesn’t entirely remove them from the picture. It just makes the Ohio State game an elimination game for them.
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WHO YOU WANT: 10-WIndiana and :02.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Michigan. The likelihood of the Hoosiers walking into Ohio Stadium and coming out with a victory is low. They haven’t beaten the Buckeyes since 1988. A two-loss Indiana is eliminated from contention.
WATCHABILITY: 4/10. Michigan’s offense is bad and borderline unwatchable. Indiana is going to carry this game because they’re at least interesting offensively. And the WSU connection with backup QB Tayven Jackson. But the 19-13 slugfest this is going to be isn’t going to win any beauty contests.
#17 IOWA STATE @ KANSAS
EFFECT ON WSU: 10/10. Another easy one. A two-loss ISU team does not make the playoffs. And we don’t want a 15th-or-whatever-ranked conference champion stealing a bid. So a second Cyclone loss would be huge for BYU, which is good for us.
WHO YOU WANT: Kansas. ISU fans are weirdly possessive about agriculture, as we learned in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Rock Chalk.
WATCHABILITY: 7/10. Things get weird in Lawrence, and Iowa State has played some strange ones this year. Something funky is going to happen, I can feel it.
#20 COLORADO @ TEXAS TECH
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EFFECT ON WSU: 1000/10. This is arguably the most important game happening this week outside of the Palouse for WSU’s chances. Colorado is, for some reason, ranked ahead of Wazzu (just kidding we all know the reason) and Texas Tech continuing to win makes our resume stronger. Also, CU is in the same spot as ISU; they are trailing BYU by one game in the Big XVI standings.
WHO YOU WANT: Tech. We’ll forgive Craig James this season.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Tech. But ONLY this season.
WATCHABILITY: 9/10. Lubbock gon’ be lit and the tortillas gon’ be flyin’. Only gets dinged because of the inevitable Deion slurp-fest.
EVENING SLATE
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MARYLAND @ #1 OREGON
EFFECT ON WSU: 1/10. Can you find three losses for Oregon? I can’t.
WHO YOU WANT: Maryland. We don’t root for traitors.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Maryland. Go for it. Oregon’s in regardless.
WATCHABILITY: 1/10. Maryland is bad. Oregon is going to run them out of Autzen tout de suite.
MISSISSIPPI STATE @ #7 TENNESSEE
EFFECT ON WSU: 9/10. This is a little more long range, but Tennessee has Georgia and Vandy left on the schedule. A loss here plus a loss to Georgia and/or Vandy would sink Tennessee faster than a goalpost in the Cumberland River.
WHO YOU WANT: CLANGA.
WHO YOU SHOULD: CLANGA. RIP Coach.
WATCHABILITY: 2/10. Mississippi State is not good. Tennessee has struggled offensively since mid-September, but there’s just too much talent in orange.
FLORIDA STATE @ #10 NOTRE DAME
EFFECT ON WSU: 9.5/10. It is alarming how far and how quickly Florida State has fallen. Mike Norvell is probably coaching for his job, but it may be too late. That being said, a win in front of Touchdown Jesus would throw Notre Dame way, way, way down the rankings. Possibly enough to let the Cougs leapfrog them on Tuesday. Notre Dame’s schedule is tissue paper soft. A second loss would take them completely out of the running.
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WHO YOU WANT: Dem ‘Noles.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Dem ‘Noles.
WATCHABILITY: 0.5/10. FSU hasn’t even been competitive the last couple weeks. Notre Dame’s not exactly an offensive juggernaut, but FSU will offer little in the way of resistance.
#11 ALABAMA @ #15 LSU
EFFECT ON WSU: 7/10. The winner of the Saban Bowl stands a really good chance of getting in the CFP. The loser of this game… probably is still in because SEC. I mean, do you think the committee would have any problem with putting a three-loss Bama in? I sure don’t.
WHO YOU WANT: LSU. Everything about them just feels more fun. Bama’s vibes are more corporate. Also hating on de Boer is a good time.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Probably LSU. They still have to play Vandy, the people’s SEC Champ. So they’re more likely to catch another loss down the road.
WATCHABILITY: 10/10. The other Death Valley at night gon’ be lit.
WASHINGTON @ #6 PENN STATE
EFFECT ON WSU: 1000/10. The other contender for most consequential to WSU’s chances. A two-loss Penn State probably still gets in. Maybe. It’ll be tight. They might not. BUT. A Washington win (ugh) helps our resume. I will never get tired of reminding Huskies that their only use is to bump our schedule strength numbers.
WHO YOU WANT: Penn State. Suck it, traitors.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Traitors, while you hold your nose. It sucks, but it’s the reality. It’s also a nice spot to be in. If they win, good for us. If they lose, karma.
WATCHABILITY: 8/10. Happy Valley at night is always good vibes. Hate watching the traitors is a weekly tradition.
NEVADA @ #12 BOISE STATE
EFFECT ON WSU: 8.5/10. If Boise State keeps winning, they will likely move up a handful of spots. They will also be the G5 representative. Checking both of those boxes means that the Cougs only have to reach #12 in the rankings instead of #11. It’s a little thing, but the lighter the lift, the more likely we make it. If the Smurfs slip up, then the highest ranked G5 conference champion (which could still be Boise State) will slot in at #12. Also there’s the resume perception of our only loss being to another CFP participant, whose only loss would be to likely #1 Oregon.
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WHO YOU WANT: Nevada. I don’t know why the Smurfs are so easy to root against. But they are.
WHO YOU SHOULD: Boise State. See above.
WATCHABILITY: 4/10. Only to watch Ashton Jeanty wreck face. Nevada is bad.
VIRGINIA @ #18 PITT
EFFECT ON WSU: 5/10. Pitt has Louisville and Clemson left on the schedule, plus a trip to Chestnut Hill to take on a feisty BC team. So it’s highly unlikely that they will survive this stretch without a loss somewhere. If it comes here, great; if not, no worries.
WHO YOU WANT: No idea. Probably UVA for chaos.
WHO YOU SHOULD: UVA. Also gets Pitt to two losses in the ACC.
WATCHABILITY: 3/10. It’s probably going to be a rock fight. But you can get some scouting in for one of our 2025 opponents! If you have the chance next year, Charlottesville is a fun place to catch a college football game. Good atmosphere in a nice little college town. C’ville might be my favorite non-Pullman campus. All that to say, I’ll be there.
LATE NIGHT SLATE
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#9 BYU @ UTAH
EFFECT ON WSU: 8/10. It’s looking more and more like the Big XVI is going to be a one-bid conference. Which is great for Wazzu, if that one bid is the conference champ and inside the Top 12. If the champ comes from outside the Top 12, then they slot in at 12. Assuming of course, Boise State wins the MWC and stays undefeated. If they don’t, then effectively, the 11 and 12 slots are stolen meaning Wazzu will have to crack the Top 10. We don’t want that, so the longer BYU stays undefeated in their conference, the better.
WHO YOU WANT: Peace in our times. This rivalry gets nasty.
WHO YOU SHOULD: The False Cougs, for all the reasons listed above.
WATCHABILITY: 7/10. The Holy War is intense, and one of the best and most bitter rivalries in college football. That being said, Utah has scored 72 points in five conference games. This may not be close. And it doesn’t really matter anyway because 15 minutes after kickoff in Salt Lake City…
UTAH STATE @ #21 WASHINGTON STATE
… the main event starts. Of the four remaining games on WSU’s schedule, this week’s tilt looks to be the easiest on paper. Utah State has one FBS win, a two-point victory over 2-7 Wyoming. Their leading receiver, who may be their best offensive player, is out for the season with a foot injury. Vegas likes the Cougs by somewhere around three touchdowns. It’s a game where the Cougs can really put the hammer down and run up the scoreboard late in the evening so when the East Coast writers wake up Sunday morning and check the scores, they see a convincing win over an inferior opponent.
It’s about optics for the rest of the season, fortunately or unfortunately. The only thing the Cougs can do is handle business and leave no doubt. After that, it’s out of their hands.
Go Cougs.
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