Who does WSU have to beat to get to the Final 4?
Washington State has finally done it. For the first time since I was 6 years old, WSU men’s basketball is on the way back to the tournament. While making it to the tournament is a huge accomplishment in and of itself, now the stress for Coug fans truly begins.
As a 7-seed, WSU luckily avoided having to potentially play a 1-seed in the second round, but they were still stuck in a tough bracket. 7-seeds have a fairly mediocre record against 10-seeds, 92-59 since 1985, per Joe Boozell at NCAA.com.
Then, WSU has to face who I consider the best 2-seed, Iowa State, and- if they want to win a championship, they’ll likely come up against the number one overall seed and reigning national champions, UConn. All this to assume the chips will fall in favor of the Cyclones and the Huskies (no, not those ones).
WSU is on the way to Omaha, somewhere in middle America. So let’s get right to the heart of matters, because it’s the heart that matters the most.
Path to the Round of 32
Opponent: Drake Bulldogs
I’ll have a far more in-depth breakdown of this game on Thursday, but at a glance, this is a scary first game in the tournament. Drake has, arguably, the best overall player in this game with Tucker DeVries, and are the best defensive rebounding team in the country according to Kenpom, which could mitigate one of WSU’s biggest offensive strengths. They are also comfortable playing at WSU’s pace. WSU does have a couple advantages here. For one, DeVries is reliant on outside shooting to be his main scoring weapon, but few of their other players have gravity outside and that should allow the Cougs – an already elite 3-point defensive team – to lock in on DeVries outside shot. Drake is also a bad rim-protecting team, ranking 246th in opponent two-point shooting. If WSU pulls off a win, it will be because they keep DeVries quiet, score inside, and prevent Drake’s offense from generating good shots inside. If they do all of that, they have a great chance to move onto the round of 32.
Path to the Sweet 16
Likely Opponent: Iowa State Cyclones
This was my nightmare second-round matchup. TJ Otzelberger is one of the best coaches in the country, Iowa State is Kenpom’s top-rated defense, and they force a ton of turnovers. There is some hope here, as WSU should have a size advantage inside- and I wouldn’t say that the Cyclones have some huge talent advantage, but it will be difficult overall.
This second-round matchup (and by extension, every game that Iowa State will play) will be ugly. WSU would need to be better at playing ugly than the Cyclones. They would have to be able to score inside, avoid turnovers, and keep Keshon Gilbert and Milan Momcilovic in check on the other end. Another sneaky advantage WSU has here is that Iowa State doesn’t rebound all that well. If WSU could combine a strong rebounding game with a low turnover game, they would have a real shot.
Less Likely Opponent: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
WSU fans probably have some bad memories of the last time they were matched up against South Dakota State, but this is a much better Coug team and a worse Jackrabbit team. This South Dakota State team would struggle mightily with the Cougs’ interior size, but WSU would have to do a great job on Zeke Mayo defensively if they wanted to avoid allowing another 15-seed Sweet 16 run.
Path to the Elite 8
Most Likely Opponent: Illinois Fightin Illini
WSU is a far more balanced team on both ends than Illinois, but Illinois is far more explosive offensively. They make shots, they score inside, they offensive rebound, and they avoid turnovers. The Illini also play at a controlled pace, which means that there isn’t much of a pace game to run for the Cougs. This is the rare team that WSU will not have a huge size advantage on, as everyone who starts for the Illini is between 6’6 and 6’10. WSU’s path to winning here would be scoring effectively inside and being able to generate and convert open outside shots. Illinois’ biggest defensive strengths are that they run teams hard off the line and they protect the rim, but they get lazy on that end when having to guard for long stretches and the Cougs could exploit that to generate open shots.
Next Likely Opponent: BYU Cougars
BYU is a dangerous team and one that has a real chance to make a push for the Elite 8. They are deep, big, talented, and connected. WSU would likely have some size-matchup down-low, but they wouldn’t have much extra size on the wings. WSU’s path to victory here would be protecting the rim at an excellent level, as BYU is 8th in country in two-point field goal percentage. They would also have to force BYU to play at their pace. BYU prefers to play fast and get shots up early in the clock, but if WSU can guard their complex actions and slow them down then they will have a real chance.
The Rest: Duquesne Dukes and Morehead State Eagles
Morehead State plays like Ohio Valley WSU, as they play incredibly slow, focus on scoring at the rim and from deep, and they focus on protecting the rim and preventing catch-and-shoot 3s defensively. They are much smaller and less overall talented than WSU, but if they are in the Sweet 16, then that means that they are really making shots from outside and their senior star players are scoring effectively against high-major talents. WSU would have to punish them inside consistently and wall off the rim defensively to beat them.
Duquesne is going to a popular upset pick because they are hitting the ground running after winning the A10 tournament. The Dukes are a strong defensive team aside from their rebounding, but they would struggle mightily with WSU’s size. If they are in the Sweet 16, it is because they are turning teams over a lot and getting easy buckets on the break. That is an advantage they have over the Cougs and something WSU would have to be careful of should they get to that point.
Path to the Final 4
Most Likely Opponent: UConn Huskies
I don’t need to spend a ton of time here. We all know this UConn team. They are the best offense in the country – per Kenpom – and they are also an elite rim-protecting team thanks to Donovan Clingan. Tristen Newton is one of the best guards in the country as both a scorer and a playmaker and Dan Hurley’s move and space offense takes advantage of their elite shooting to create great shots from deep and at the rim.
So how does WSU beat this team? Pray for a miracle? Well, there isn’t a ton of hole to pick with this UConn team, but the Cougs would have some size advantage and there is a world where they can effectively guard shooters Alex Karaban and Cam Spencer while no one else on the team is making shots. Despite being an elite overall shooting team, most of that shooting is tied to those two players while the rest of the roster is, at best, inconsistent. Then, WSU would just need someone to go nuts offensively, grab a couple offensive boards, keep UConn off the glass, make a high-percentage of their outside shots, handle the Newton and Clingan pick-and-roll, and not foul an outsized amount. Sounds easy right?
Next Likely Opponent: Auburn Tigers
Auburn is an explosive team on both ends and they are probably underseeded on the 4-line, especially in the region with the number 1 overall seed. The Tigers have an incredible interior player in Johni Broome who WSU would have to be able to handle down low. Auburn is also a great shooting team on the wing, which provides a lot of space for the pick-and-rolls between their trio of solid guards and Broome. WSU would have to be able to dominate the boards here, as Auburn is not good on the defensive boards but they excel in terms of protecting the rim and guarding the 3. If WSU would want to win this game, they’d have to turn this game into a slugfest.
The Rest: San Diego State Aztecs, Florida Atlantic Owls, Northwestern Wildcats, UAB Blazers, and Yale Bulldogs
Of this group, the obvious threat is the Aztecs. SDSU made it all the way to the championship last year and they are not incredibly different from that team. The Aztecs are once again a defensive squad to watch, but I do think there’s some fools gold there, as they guard the 3 well in terms of percentage, but allow teams to shoot a lot of outside shots. Should WSU play them, they should be able to get good shooters good shots. WSU’s size would also allow them to matchup with interior scorer Jaedon LeDee.
Northwestern and FAU both have an incredibly difficult path as 8/9 seeds, but if they make it, it’s because they’re making shots from outside at a high-level. Northwestern is the best shooting team in the country, and they have quite the talented guard in Boo Buie, but that reliance on outside shooting likely plays into WSU’s hands a bit. FAU is small and WSU would have an interior advantage on both ends, but they would have to be able to control the pace and guard their scorers in isolation.
UAB and Yale are both guard reliant teams who are in the tournament because of conference tournament runs. Both are unlikely to make the run to the Elite 8, but should they make it, it would be because both have guards that have gotten hot. WSU would have to be able to dominate inside and guard those elite scorers in order to win.
What Stands Out?
When looking through the possible matchups in their region, there is a trend for how they are could win games. Use their size advantage on the boards, to protect the rim, and to score inside at a higher level than their opponents. March is all about leaning into your strengths and WSU’s strength is their size. Of course, the Cougs are going to have to make shots and they are going to have to avoid turnovers, and it will take a little bit of magic, but there is a path here for the Cougs in their region. And isn’t magic what March is all about?
Go Cougs.