There are lots of names being tossed around. Lets put a number on how likely each of them are!
This week, the Pac-12 stopped playing prevent-the-win defense. It went on offense in a big way. Starting in July 2026, the conference will be at six teams. Triple the membership they have now!
But this round of realignment is a little different than others. Where there were at least questions as to whether conferences desired further expansion previously, we actually know the Pac-12 needs to add at least two more teams to keep their FBS status. But would the conference stop just at eight? Would they go to ten? Maybe even 12 to keep the branding around? So far, the conference isn’t publicly committing to where they’ll land, only that they’ll hit that eight team minimum.
How likely are each of those candidate schools you’ve heard about to be added to the 6-Pac? Lets dig in, starting with the least likely:
(And before we go any further: no, the Pac-12 did not do to the Mountain West what the ten schools who left the Pac-12 did to us. The MWC is still at eight teams and they’re about to get $120 million. We had to freakin’ sue for ours and had two teams left. Settle down on the comparison.)
Stanford and Cal: 1,000/1
This … is just not happening. The ACC Grant of Rights our former Bay Area brothers signed is, as Clemson and Florida State are finding out, pretty much written in blood. Short of that entire conference caving in on itself, they aren’t going anywhere for 12 years.
That “look-in” ESPN has on the contract coming up in February? I’ve yet to see a compelling reason why The Worldwide Leader would willingly rip up a deal that’s underindexed in their favor. Could Florida State and Clemson just pay the money to get out of the conference? Absolutely. But the figures floating around (FSU lawyers estimate it could be over half a billion dollars) are too insane even for them.
Saving room for them in case something drastic happens? Makes sense! But in that event, it would be tough to count on one or both being willing to jump into a conference with schools that don’t match them academically. Yes, they still care about that. Why do you think they’re in the ACC for a reduced share?
Put simply: there will always be room for them in the event the ACC collapses and they’re willing to come home. We haven’t even turned their room into a gym yet! But it’s just extremely unlikely.
Utah and ASU: 500/1
Better value here anyway! Of the Four Corner schools who ended up in the Big 12, these two were the ones who least wanted to do it. ASU President Michael Crow nearly blew up the deal for his institution and the University of Arizona to make the jump the day it happened. Utah very, very begrudgingly left for safety, for which I don’t really blame them.
But they’re making north of $30 million per year in the Big 12. Although the Big 12 exit fees aren’t as substantial (when Texas and Oklahoma left, you had to surrender several years of media rights distribution), they’re still pretty big! Both ASU and Utah would’ve preferred to remain in the Pac-12 but can you make it worth their while to come back home now? Hard to see a way for that to happen. I hope, at least, that Teresa Gould kicks the tires here though. If nothing else, both schools might be willing to be non-conference partners of some sort.
Lord knows we’d all love more Mill Ave. road trips.
Hawai’i, UNM, Wyoming, Utah State, SJSU: 50/1
Simply put: if the Pac-12 wanted these institutions, they’d already have been invited. The Mountain West made dang good and sure that if the Pac-12 poached teams, we were going to pay. But that’s acted as a poison pill in some ways for these schools as the penalty to bring them over (roughly $30 million) just isn’t worth it.
What that poison pill did do though was ensure the Pac-12 would never attempt to take more than what’s absolutely necessary. The Mountain West still has the FBS minimum eight teams and they’re about to have a $120 million windfall. That’s a great position to be operating from, especially since at least a couple teams (New Mexico State, UTEP) are known to have previously been chomping at the bit for an invite.
The school these defections likely effect the most though is Hawai’i. They’re football only members of the Mountain West and that program has been teetering on the edge for some time. A new Aloha Stadium won’t open until 2028 and that’s assuming everything remains on-time. Timmy Chang seems to have things pointed in the right direction there but joining a conference that features only the best of the Mountain West and the Pac-12 isn’t the best way to continue rebuilding. Travel will now only get more expensive for them so this uphill climb got steeper.
Air Force: 40/1
Setting aside that the Cheez-It Bowl opening drive still gives me night sweats, Air Force would be a decent match. They’re nearby new member Colorado State and military institutions always have a decent draw.
Given the choice though, I’d wager the Falcons would prefer jumping to the American Athletic Conference where they’d join Army and Navy as conference members. There’s also the limitation of them being in the Mountain West so the Pac-12 must again ask the question: is this institution worth $30 million?
Air Force may also be perfectly comfortable in the Mountain West! Military institutions aren’t like normal schools where making the CFP would be a substantial, and potentially needed, financial windfall. They don’t operate like every other school with how they think so we probably shouldn’t expect them to make the “best” choice, as far as we’d be concerned anyway.
Rice, UTSA: 25/1
Texas? Check! Big metro area? Check!
A big television draw and a large, rabid fanbase? Weeeeellllllllllll.
The Owls and Roadrunners would be a “buy low” addition. UTSA has seen a lot of success in recent years with 23 wins combined in 2021 and 2022; they’ve also managed to hold on to Jeff Traylor, a big win. They’ve only had a program for 15 years so that they’ve gotten this successful this quickly is a testament to them. They’re not necessarily the television draw of the other schools, but that might be a problem for right now, rather than later.
Rice checks the box of being in a massive city but that’s about it right now. The only school with a smaller enrollment in FBS is Tulsa. Their football program has … well, it has existed for a long time! If the Roadrunners are “buy low”, Rice is “buying the distressed debt of a close to bankrupt AI company in Silicon Valley”. It could work! But it would be a massive gamble.
UNLV, Nevada: 10/1
The two other Mountain West schools we haven’t mentioned yet? There’s a reason.
UNLV being left out on Thursday was a surprise. It checks just about every box and it’s in the city where the conference previously liked to center their championships. An up and coming football team, a historically excellent men’s basketball squad, even athletically it’s a better fit now than it was even a few years ago.
Nevada has always been successful at men’s basketball. As a frequent visitor to the Lawlor Event Center, they have superb fans. Football success has come and gone but it has and can still happen there. Reno isn’t the biggest little market but it would still offer a good chunk of fans.
So what’s the problem? The Nevada System of Higher Education.
The state agency overseeing both schools very, very likely won’t let UNLV leave without taking Nevada with them. And that’s where the pesky poaching and exit fees come into play again. Is UNLV worth $30 million? I’d lean towards saying yes. Are UNLV and Nevada worth $60 million? That’s where the waters get muddy.
If it’s both or neither, I’d estimate the conference leans towards neither for right now. But if they get a better answer from their consultants on television money with both and depending on the NCAA Tournament unit split, it could suddenly make sense to take both.
Tulane and Memphis: 3/1
Big markets, successful programs and fun road trips. These schools check a lot of boxes and they seem primed for a jump into the big time.
Adding Tulane and Memphis also has another interesting side effect: at some point in the future, realignment is coming again. Snagging both of these schools now helps provide a possible defense against the Big 12 or ACC taking them later and limiting your options.
The facility investments are there. Memphis is re-doing the Liberty Bowl, Tulane just finished building an on-campus stadium. Memphis’s basketball program is still searching for its return to the Halycon days of John Calipari. So what’s the hold up?
Man, they are far away. New Orleans is a four and a half hour return trip from just about anywhere in the current Pac-12 foot print. Plus, there’s nothing “Pacific” about teams sitting on the Mississippi River. But, as we’ve seen, that doesn’t really matter anymore with he Atlantic Coast Conference having two teams that are spitting distance to the Pacific Ocean.
Who’d I miss? What odds are too high or low? Discuss!