How good are our odds, really?
Good evening, Coug fans!
Tomorrow, your Washington State Cougars are taking their talents to the big stage, and while we’ve already given you a brief preview of their opponents here, it’s time to look into how likely these scenarios are.
Fun fact before we begin, in 2014 a 7th seed UConn won the National Championship! As a potential opponent for WSU (we’ll get to that later) this feels like a very good or very bad omen, and I’m choosing to go with good.
To kick things off, Washington State enters the tournament seeded 7th, with a +15000 (+12000 depending on where you look), so essentially 150 (120) to 1 odds for the whole dang dance. In terms of winning the East, WSU sits at +4500, so again not incredibly likely, but not completely out of the question.
If you’re a seasoned sports better, or trying your hand for the first time, make DraftKings your first stop!
Let’s take a look at the rest of their potential opponents!
WSU vs. Drake – Guaranteed matchup
Against the Bulldogs, Washington State is the underdog, but barely. It’s essentially the betting version of a real life coin flip (per my friend Sam). The final score is expected to be within a point, the Over/Under lands at a cool 137.5 (according to our friends at DraftKings), and the spread for this game is very tight, so it’s expected to be a close game. If you plan on betting on the Cougs you’re looking at a +1 -108, with the moneyline sitting at +102, a $100 bet would get you a $2 profit!
Drake has +5500 to win the Eastern Region.
WSU vs. Iowa State or South Dakota State: in the Second Round
As our friend Bryce mentioned in the article I linked above, Iowa State is a worst-case-scenario for Coug fans. They’re a 2nd seed overall, Big 12 Champion, and have one of the best (or, the best, if you’re Ken Pomeroy) defenses in the country. They’ve got 18 to 1 odds for winning the tournament, which is tangibly higher than ours, but let’s not be too scared of that.
In terms of winning the region, Iowa State has +400, compared to a +10000 for SDSU.
In order for WSU to face Iowa State, the Cyclones must beat the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. The Jackrabbits are (predictably) the underdog in that scenario, but that spread looks a bit bigger than ours. Iowa State is favored more than Drake in our first round matchup, and the moneyline is bigger. Instead of a +12, the Cyclones vs. Jackrabbits have a +16, with an O/U of 135.5. Iowa State is expected to win by 16 points.
Against the Cyclones, our odds get even smaller. Iowa State would technically be 39.7 times more likely to win against WSU, whereas SDSU would only be 4.360 more likely, according to BracketOdds.
WSU vs Illinois or Morehead State or BYU or Duquesne: in the Sweet 16
Let’s assume WSU soars into the Sweet 16! We’re all screaming, everything is happy, and it’s time to play more basketball. But against who?
It will most likely be Illinois, who would have to beat Morehead State (which is likely, according to our friends at DraftKings), and then beat either BYU or Duquesne depending on who wins that matchup (probably BYU, again via DraftKings).
Illinois has a +750 of reaching the final four, +1500 for BYU, and +10000 for Duquesne.
WSU vs UConn or Auburn: in the Elite 8
We won’t be skipping past the first game for UConn, which is against Stetson. UConn starts that game -10000 vs a +2200 for Stetson, so it’s clear where we expect the victory to land. But again, I’m nothing if not a believer in the underdog.
Auburn kicks off against Yale, with an O/U of 130. Yale has a -115 compared to Auburn’s -115.
Auburn and UConn both have to drive through several different opponents to meet Washington State in the Final Four (an insane sentence to write, to be honest) and you can check those spreads here!
But, historically, it’ll be UConn. However, March is known for a Cinderella story or two, so Auburn isn’t off the table. Let’s look at the Huskies first. UConn already has a +360 from DraftKings for winning the tournament and a +105 to win our region, compared again to a +4500 for WSU.
If it is WSU vs Auburn, who we believe are underseeded anyway, you’re looking at a +380 to win the region for the Tigers.
I’m no expert, but there are definitely worse likely scenarios for teams trying to win their region! Hope everyone is getting especially excited for tomorrow, we’ll have plenty of coverage so keep checking back in. Go Cougs!
Once again, you can check out the lines here.