Washington will once again look to beat the odds when entering the College Football Playoff National Championship Game as underdogs.
Las Vegas favored Oregon to defeat the Huskies for the Pac-12 title and a CFP berth, but Washington prevailed. As underdogs once more, Michael Penix Jr. led the team to a 37-31 semifinal win over Texas on Monday night.
Michigan is now a four-point favorite to defeat Washington for the national title next Monday. ESPN Analytics also backs the Wolverines, giving Jim Harbaugh’s team a 74.3 percent win probability.
That’s not too surprising, as ESPN’s Football Power Index gave Michigan the best chance (36.2%) of winning the national championship before the four-team playoff began, Washington, by far, had the lowest probability at a mere 8.3 percent.
Washington opens as a 4.5-point underdog against Michigan in the national title game 👀 pic.twitter.com/vVPoMWEmA3
— ESPN BET (@ESPNBet) January 2, 2024
ESPN also gave the Longhorns a 68.7 percent chance of eliminating the Longhorns in the Sugar Bowl. Instead, Penix posted 430 passing yards and two touchdowns while Texas committed 10 penalties and lost two fumbles.
Forecasting models remain nonplussed by Washington repeatedly winning close. The Huskies have won their last nine games by an average margin of 5.9 points.
On the other hand, a six-point victory over Ohio State represented Michigan’s closest margin of the 14-0 season.
The country’s top-ranked passing offense will combat the No. 1 scoring defense in a battle of strengths for college football’s grandest prize. Penix must deliver one more masterpiece against a Wolverines defense that held Jalen Milroe to 116 passing yards.
Yet Washington’s defense slowing down J.J. McCarthy and Blake Corum could be the bigger key to an upset. Even in a victory, the Huskies allowed 498 total yards to the Longhorns.
Monday’s National Championship Game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.