West Coast Conference Tournament: Semifinals Preview, Predictions, Odds

No. 1 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 9 Pepperdine Waves at 6 p.m. PT on ESPN. No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 3 San Francisco Dons at 8:30 p.m. PT on ESPN2.

The Orleans Arena has been the place to be in Las Vegas. After an exciting first three rounds of the West Coast Conference Tournament, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s now enter the picture in the semifinals.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Gonzaga is the favorite to win the West Coast Conference Tournament at -155 and claim the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

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Let’s take a look at the matchups:

No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 3 San Francisco Dons

To Gonzaga coach Mark Few’s standards, this 2024-25 season has been underwhelming to say the least. Does that mean that this 2024-25 group still isn’t capable of making a run at the West Coast Conference Tournament title and spending multiple weeks alive in the NCAA Tournament? Far from the truth.

Gonzaga’s senior guard Ryan Nembhard, the country’s leader in assists at 10.0 assists per game, is looking to make his mark in his final season with the Zags. He doesn’t turn over the ball much (4.85 assist/turnover ratio, 2nd in the nation) and can lock in on the other side of the ball (1.6 steals per game, tied for 4th in the West Coast Conference). The floor general leaves it all out there and is the main reason why this program is still in the long run of the college basketball picture.

No clarity on if this will be Gonzaga’s senior center Graham Ike’s final season in Spokane as he has one extra year of eligibility given by the NCAA. In the West Coast Conference, the big man is third with scoring at 17.0 points per game on the highest field goal percentage at 59.9. Ike has multiple facets to his game, grabbing the third-most rebounds at 7.4 per game.

Gonzaga will now be going up against San Francisco in back-to-back games. The first coming against coach Chris Gerlufsen’s group which ended in a 95-75 regular season finale win for the Zags at the Chase Center. San Francisco sophomore guard Ryan Beasley suffered a gnarly ankle injury back on March 1st but no one would’ve guessed that after watching what he did in the tournament quarterfinal win against the No. 6 Washington State Cougars.

The San Ramon, California native went ballistic, creating space on three-point looks for himself and finding his teammates near the rim for even easier looks. Beasley finished with a game-high 29 points on 10-15 field goals/4-8 three-pointers to go along with four rebounds, three assists, 2 steals in the quarterfinal win over Washington State, 86-75.

Alongside who should’ve been the Conference’s Player of the Year in senior guard Malik Thomas (leads the conference in scoring at 19.1 and steals at 1.7), that Dons’ backcourt has revenge on the mind against the Zags.

San Francisco ended up destroying Washington State in the quarterfinals on the rebounding battle, 49-25. 10 of those boards came from sophomore forward Junjie Wang. Gonzaga is No. 2 in the West Coast Conference on the glass at 38.9 per game while Saint Mary’s is No. 1 at 39.5.

“We talk about rebounding a lot, it can be an extreme separator in March. They just played hard and went after the ball, earning and second and third chances collectively. It was just cool to be apart of, it was a relentless approach on the glass.” – San Francisco coach Chris Gerlufsen

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No. 1 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 9 Pepperdine Waves

Nobody expected Pepperdine to get this far. The Waves were 0-11 in the regular season against KenPom’s Top 100 teams and didn’t even come close in those opportunities. They only had four total wins in conference play.

Now, Pepperdine coach Ed Schilling and his group during his first season in Malibu has upset the No. 8 Portland Pilots (86-73), No. 5 Oregon State Beavers (77-73), and No. 4 Santa Clara Broncos (78-76) in Las Vegas. It’s been electric to watch those three wins in three days.

“We’re very fortunate and we’ve been fighting all season. I’m happy we’ve continued to fight like we did this season. As much as anything I’m thankful because it validates the process for our guys and especially our younger guys. We never gave up during the season and they are seeing the results of that now.” – Pepperdine coach Ed Schilling

Bronx, New York native Moe Odum decided to transfer out from the Pacific Tigers and that looks to be the smartest move he will ever make in his collegiate career. After an embarrassing first round loss back in last season’s West Coast Conference tournament when Pacific fell to Pepperdine (102-46), he knew where he had to go to next.

Back to this postseason, the junior guard in Odum has had three straight double-doubles on points/assists to lead the Waves on this miraculous run. He’s averaging 22.3 points and 11.3 assists during this Cinderella run, putting a smile on the fans of this competitive league.

Unfortunately, this is where the Sin City trip looks to come to an end for Pepperdine. Saint Mary’s coach Randy Bennett has had the Gaels locked in on the defensive side of the floor all season long. Take a look at where they stand in these categories among all programs in college basketball:

60.8 points allowed per game – No. 5

39.5 total rebounds per game – No. 19

40.8 defensive field goal percentage – No. 38

15.1 personal fouls per game – tied for No. 43

3.16 defensive three-point percentage – No. 69

Offensively, the Gaels are obviously known for having one of the slowest paces in all of college basketball. They’re consistent and precise with their half court sets while taking the shot clock down to the final seconds of each shot clock. Saint Mary’s always controls the time of possession which is bothersome for any opposing team. Nobody enjoys playing the Gaels.

Saint Mary’s freshman Mikey Lewis (8.6 points, 1.7 rebounds), who was named the West Coast Conference Sixth Man of the Year, is the most worrisome for any opposing defender in the backcourt for the Gaels. The back-to-back West Coast Conference Player of the Year in senior guard Augustas Marčiulionis (14.4 points, 6.1 assists, 1.4 steals) is legit, that goes without saying.

But the young gun in Lewis can be that much better in quick spans and fill the hoop up more in crucial moments. The Oakland, California native has had his best two performances of his inaugural campaign coming against wins over Gonzaga (16 points on Feb. 1 in Moraga, 18 points on Feb. 22 in Spokane).

This is the best that the West Coast Conference has looked from top to bottom in quite a while and the early parts of this season’s tournament has shown that thus far. It will only get that more competitive in the semifinals.

No. 1 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. No. 9 Pepperdine Waves is set for 6 p.m. PT on ESPN. No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 3 San Francisco Dons at 8:30 p.m. PT on ESPN2. Both matchups are appointment television with a trip to the championship game on the line.

Arden Cravalho is a Gonzaga University graduate from the Bay Area… Follow him on Twitter @a_cravalho