Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga Preview

The rivalry is in full effect once again as Gonzaga looks for vengeance at home on Senior Night. Tip-off is on Saturday at 5:00 PM PST, coverage provided by ESPN2.

The Zags face their longtime rivals, the Saint Mary’s Gaels, on Saturday at home in the McCarthy Athletic Center. In addition to this being a rivalry game with less than no love lost between the two teams, it’s also a shot at redemption for the Zags, who lost to Saint Mary’s in a nailbiter in Moraga a couple weeks ago. It’ll also be Senior Night in the Kennel, a chance for a bunch of our guys to be honored and celebrated in front of family and friends before tipoff, and there’s always a little extra magic in the air on Senior Night. Unfortunately for the Gaels, this team’s got a lot of seniors.

All of this is to say, Saturday is going to be one of the most legendarily raucous nights in Gonzaga basketball history. The Gaels are walking into one of the loudest and most hostile venues in college basketball, and the Zags we’ve seen lately are simply not the same team they were a few weeks ago.

The Gaels

It’s all old news… Saint Mary’s plays physical, well-disciplined defense, excruciatingly slow but highly efficient offense, and dominates the offensive glass.

A loss to Saint Mary’s is particularly hard to swallow for Zag fans because by the end of regulation it feels like you didn’t even get to watch the Zags play at all. For 40 minutes, you’re stuck watching them play the plodding, joyless, and maddening style of basketball Saint Mary’s expertly forces their opponents into. It just isn’t fun to watch. Gonzaga lost in their last matchup because they were not able to settle into their own rhythm and play their own brand of basketball. In order to handle them on Saturday, the Zags will need to make sure they bring the game to the Gaels and not vice versa.

Saint Mary’s stands now at 24-4 on the season and 14-1 in conference play. Their only loss in WCC play came down to a single possession against USF less than two weeks ago, a game they lost by 1 point. They’re coming off four consecutive wins since then, including decisive victories over Santa Clara and Oregon State. Most recently, they absolutely dismantled Portland, a game in which they bested the Pilots on the offensive glass 15-5.

The Gaels are currently ranked 20th in KenPom and 21st in the NET. They also come in at 3rd in the nation for offensive rebounding margin, 4th in overall rebounding margin, 4th in total offensive rebounds per game (a remarkable feat considering how few offensive possessions they even play per game), and 6th in the nation for their assist-to-turnover ratio. In addition to their defensive bona fides, they are also known for taking things sloooooooooow. They currently rank 358th in the nation for both their tempo and average length of possession (19.9 seconds). There are fewer than 10 teams in D1 college basketball that play slower than Saint Mary’s, and watching the Gaels play can occasionally feel like being waterboarded with molasses, especially for Gonzaga fans accustomed to watching a blisteringly uptempo offense.

How to beat the Gaels

Randy Bennett has assembled perhaps his most disciplined and efficient group yet this year. They’re experienced, mature, and fully bought into his system. They rely on lockdown man defense to force their opponents into tough shots late in the shot-clock and on the other end work the ball around meticulously to get high-percentage shots near the rim or just launch from deep. Either way, they like to grind the game’s tempo to a crawl and run a lot of clock in looking for their shots.

The Zags will need to do a little bit of everything on Saturday, but chiefly, they’ll need to do make sure they can avoid getting sucked into a game of Bennettball. To keep out of that muck, the Zags will need to…

Exploit Saint Mary’s lack of depth

Over the past five games, point guard Augustas Marciulionis and 6’8” wing Paulius Murauskas have accounted for around 40% of the Gaels’ scoring. This is partly because they’re highly skilled bucket-getters who take a lot of shots, but also partly because the Gaels just aren’t that deep. Murauskas, Marciulionis, and forward Luke Barrett each play 35 minutes per game, while Mitchell Saxen plays 30 and Jordan Ross around 25. The Gaels lack the depth or athleticism to keep up with the Zags in a track meet—no chance. The Zags will need to push hard in transition, run their halfcourt sets quickly, and do everything they can to run the Gaels ragged. Expect the Zags to keep playing 9-deep, getting fresh bodies on the floor regularly, and to rely heavily on their increasingly effective full-court press to speed up and wear out the Gaels. This could be a huge game for Innocenti and Ajayi defensively, both of whom are athletic and rangy enough to give the Gaels fits in getting the ball past halfcourt.

Get quick buckets in the low post

Nembhard and Ike/Huff are absolutely in sync lately, and the high screen-and-roll will be crucial for quick buckets and for putting foul pressure on Mitchell Saxen. Ike scored 24 against the Gaels in their last meeting, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again on Saturday. Braden Huff has also been on fire lately, averaging 12.8 points per game over the last five contests despite playing just 15.4 minutes. Gonzaga’s big men lead the nation in 2-point field goal attempts per minute played, and they’ll need to maintain that pace and focus on fast strikes inside to control the game’s tempo and challenge the opposing bigs to protect the rim without fouling.

No second chances

The Gaels are a good defensive rebounding team but an exceptional offensive rebounding team—that’s how they win. The Zags will need to be tougher and more physical than they’ve been all season, boxing out as soon as a shot goes up, fighting hard for possession, and pushing the pace in transition, looking for points on the fast break before the Gaels’ defense can get set up. The Gaels make their opponents pay for poor rebounding, so the Gonzaga frontcourt—especially Ajayi and Gregg, who will most likely be matched up with Murauskas—will need to be hyper-vigilant and extremely physical in closing out and limiting their second-chance scoring opportunities. If the Zags can keep Saint Mary’s off the offensive glass, they will win this game.

Keep up the Defensive Intensity

Since their loss in the last matchup, the Zags have held opponents to an average of just 61.8 points and 37.5% shooting per game. It’s one of the most impressive turnarounds I’ve seen from a Gonzaga team in years. The Kennel will be electric on Saturday, and the Zags will need to channel that energy into a disciplined, active, and relentless defensive attack. Instead of letting the Gaels pass the ball around and hunt the best shot, the Zags need to jump passing lanes, go for steals, trap their guards in the backcourt, and close out on ball handlers the moment they pick up their dribble. Again, Ajayi and Innocenti will be crucial in bottling up Saint Mary’s wings but everyone will need to be communicating effectively on switches and keeping track of their assignments diligently.

Bonus Strategy: Send Them to the Line?

The Gaels don’t win games from the free-throw line. As a team, they shoot just 69.1% from the stripe, ranking 275th in the nation. Mitchell Saxen leads the team in free-throw attempts per game but shoots only 53.3% on the season. It’s a little unorthodox, but sending the Gaels—especially their bigs—to the line early in the shot clock might actually make more sense than letting them run down the clock for high-percentage shots near the rim or good looks from three. This strategy would also limit Saint Mary’s offensive rebounding opportunities, which are crucial to their clock-bleeding game plan. The Zags are running 9-deep lately and can afford to spread the foul trouble around a bit. Plus, the Kennel will be maximally hostile and deafeningly loud on Saturday, not an environment any opponent would be eager to shoot free throws in. It’s a little outside the box, but challenging the Gaels to win from the free-throw line might just be crazy enough to work.

Final Thoughts

In the end, the Zags’ path to victory against Saint Mary’s comes down to controlling the tempo and exploiting the Gaels’ weaknesses. Whether it’s pushing the pace in transition, capitalizing on low-post opportunities (quickly), or forcing the Gaels into foul trouble, if the Zags can get the Gaels to play Gonzaga basketball and avoid being sucked into the quicksand of Saint Mary’s style of play, they’ll leave with a statement win at a critical point in the season.

Senior Night is always bittersweet, but this year’s team has a lot to celebrate. If getting the chance to play in front of family and loved ones puts a little extra gas in the tank for Hickman, Nembhard, Ike, Gregg, Ajayi, and Battle, the Saint Mary’s Gaels are in for a long, loud, and rough night in the Kennel. A win would be validating, but an absolute decimation would be more fun.