Gonzaga vs. Pepperdine Preview

The Gonzaga Bulldogs look to leave SoCal with at least one win as they face Pepperdine on Monday night in Malibu. Tip-off at 7:00 PM PT, broadcast coverage provided by KHQ and ESPN+.

After a grueling slate of non-conference matchups, Gonzaga opens conference play on Monday night against the Pepperdine Waves in Malibu. It’s time at last to settle into WCC play. With the transfer portal and multiple coaching changes shaking things up across the college basketball landscape, it might be worth taking a backward glance at the Waves’ performance last season and what they’ve been up to in the interim before previewing what the Zags can expect on Monday.

(If the offseason machinations of a team that finished 13-20 last year don’t catch your interest, feel free to jump ahead. But for those curious about the state of the WCC in general, the following might provide some useful context before Monday night’s game.)

The Waves: A Season in Review

Pepperdine’s performance last season was puzzling, given the talent on their roster. With three players—Jevon Porter, Michael Ajayi, and Houston Mallette—who had legitimate NBA potential, it was surprising that the Waves just couldn’t put it all together. Despite these standout players earning All-WCC honors and posting strong individual stats, the Waves finished tied for 6th in the WCC with a 5-11 conference record.

Former Wave Michael Ajayi, now, obviously, a Zag, had an all-conference season last year at Pepperdine, averaging 17.2 points per game on 47% shooting and leading the team in rebounds with 9.9 per game. Houston Mallette also averaged 14.2 points per game, and power forward Jevon Porter added 16.2. The three combined for the vast majority of the team’s scoring and rebounding, but despite their individual efforts, the Waves’ low assist numbers and ineffective half-court offense conspired to keep their win/loss record just below substandard.

In the team’s two meetings last year, the Zags had little trouble against Pepperdine. The duo of Graham Ike and Anton Watson dominated the smaller Pepperdine frontcourt and combined for 35 and then 40 points a couple of weeks later. In both games, the Zags held Pepperdine to under 40% shooting and out-rebounded them by double digits. Despite the talent on Pepperdine’s roster, these games were not particularly close.

Pepperdine’s 2023-2024 season was a reminder that talent alone isn’t enough in college basketball, and after another disappointing year at the helm, head coach Lorenzo Romar was dismissed and has since moved on to an assistant coaching role at Loyola Marymount.

Enter Ed Schilling. Though Schilling hasn’t been a head coach since the 2002-2003 season at Wright State, his extensive experience as a player development specialist, most recently at Grand Canyon University, made him a strong fit for the role. Schilling’s ample experience in player development certainly offers Pepperdine fans something they were sorely missing under the Romar administration.

Schilling spent the offseason on the recruiting trail and brought in some very strong international talent alongside some veteran WCC playmakers and high-ceiling freshmen. He’s built a team with a lot of potential, and it will be interesting to see how the newly assembled Waves perform in conference play if/when they begin to really hit their stride.

As of Now…

Pepperdine is currently 6-8 and ranked #208 in KenPom. After a rough 5-game losing streak in November, they seemed to have found their rhythm a bit, going 5-2 before last night’s loss to Santa Clara.

A big part of their recent success has been USF transfer Stefan Todorovic, a 6’8” senior from Serbia, who is averaging 19.3 points per game (good for 29th in the nation) on 49.7% shooting. Against Santa Clara, Todorovic put up 25 points on 10-21 shooting. Alongside Todorovic, Pacific transfer point guard Moe Odum has been averaging 12 points and 7.5 assists per game (good for 6th in the nation). Odum’s playmaking has brought a new flow to the offense—something Pepperdine fans hadn’t seen much under Romar—and his veteran leadership has been key to their recent turnaround. Against Santa Clara, Odum chipped in 14 points, 9 assists, and 6 rebounds. Both Odum and Todorovic have been playing extremely well all season, and their chemistry is at the center of Pepperdine’s offensive game plan.

But the contributions of Lithuanian forward Dovydas Butka have been the biggest spark for Pepperdine recently. Over the course of their last 6 games, Butka has been averaging nearly 13 points and 8.5 rebounds on 56% shooting. The combination of Butka and Todorovic on the wings with Odum facilitating from the 1 will challenge the Zags’ ability to rotate coverages on the perimeter and fight over ball-screens quickly and efficiently. Pepperdine likes to swing the ball around and hunt the best shot, and with three skilled scorers in Odum, Todorovic, and Butka, the Zags could have their hands full in slowing them down.

Keys to the Game

Keep Todorovic off his spots

Pepperdine’s offense runs through Todorovic, and he’s been hard to stop. Just a couple of weeks ago, he dropped 32 points against Long Beach State on 4-9 shooting from 3. He likes to draw contact when he elevates, so to limit his impact, the Zags will need to stay disciplined in guarding the perimeter and limiting clean looks at the basket. Pepperdine has also been rebounding exceptionally well, so second-chance scoring opportunities need to be minimized by boxing out Pepperdine’s bigs and controlling rebounds.

Isolate Odum

Like Gonzaga, Pepperdine plays fast, and Moe Odum is the one pushing the pace. He’s a dynamic playmaker with excellent court vision, and his chemistry with Todorovic (and recently Butka) has kept the Waves competitive. While players like Zion Bethea and Coulibaly have had some strong moments, Pepperdine struggles to score consistently in the half-court without Odum and Todorovic working together. Keeping a tight backcourt coverage on Odum while preventing the ball from finding its way to Todorovic on the perimeter might be enough to stall out the Pepperdine offense.

Let Our Shooters Keep Shooting

The 11th-ranked scoring offense shouldn’t also be the 165th-best 3-point shooting offense, logically. But that’s precisely the case this year, with the Zags averaging nearly 90 points a game on a lackluster 34.3% from deep. Conference play gives the Zags a chance to settle into their offensive identity as a team loaded with great shooters, and the game against Pepperdine should offer plenty of opportunities to improve from deep. The great news is that even without a reliable 3-point shot, the Zags have been putting up 87.2 points per game, so letting it continue to fly from deep shouldn’t disrupt the structural integrity of the offense too much. It’s worth noting that Michael Ajayi, who finished last season as a 47% 3-point shooter, is currently 4-26 this season for the Zags. A game in his familiar former home court could offer the perfect opportunity to start moving the needle on his 15% season average from outside.

Looking Ahead

With all the roster turnover and coaching changes in college basketball last offseason, this year’s Pepperdine team feels like a fresh addition to the WCC after six years under Lorenzo Romar. While the Waves have had their struggles this season, Ed Schilling seems to be steering them in the right direction. Pepperdine will be looking for a statement win at home to kick off their conference season, and despite a tough non-conference slate, the Zags will need to be prepared to dig deep and face a hungry team.