Gonzaga vs Nicholls State Preview

A high-intensity matchup against a scrappy Nicholls State squad offers the Gonzaga Bulldogs a perfect bounce-back opportunity in their return home to the Kennel

After weeks on the road, the Zags are finally heading back to the comfort of the Kennel. Wednesday, December 18 at 6:00 PM Pacific Time, Gonzaga will tip off against Nicholls State in the McCarthy Athletic Center, back in front of its loyal fans and all the comforts of home.

It’s been a tough stretch for the Bulldogs. In the past three weeks, they’ve dropped three games. Two were grueling overtime battles, and the other was just a single possession away from becoming a grueling overtime battle. All three losses were heartbreakingly close and very winnable games for the Zags. Still, for a squad some predicted could remain undefeated, losing three games in such a short span stings.

At their peak, this year’s Zags have showcased moments of basketball brilliance that place them squarely in the Top-5 conversation. However, the rocky start to the season has sent their AP ranking plummeting from #3 to #13. (Can we even call that “plummeting, though”?) We’ve seen this year’s team grapple with a host of game-deciding issues: personnel chemistry, coaching adjustments, foul trouble, late-game scoring, interior dominance, inconsistent shooting, and sluggishness in crucial moments.

That said, we’ve seen this movie before.

This happened last year, too…

Winter of 2023, the Zags were struggling mightily. Between December 6 and January 12, Gonzaga went 4-5, suffering losses to Washington, San Diego State, UConn, and, most shockingly, Santa Clara. For the first time since 2016, they fell out of the AP Top 25 entirely. Fans mourned. Garments were rent. Expletives flew. Hair was pulled. The sky, it seemed, was falling.

But then, the Zags pulled a rabbit out of the hat. They adapted, addressed their flaws, and closed the season looking like a legitimate Final Four contender.

This year’s team returns 81% of its scoring from last season, a vast majority of its personnel. In other words, the squad currently stumbling through December is largely the same group that stumbled through last December—and also the same squad that found a way to flourish when it mattered most.

Those of us who have endured a winter in Spokane can attest that the cold, dark, and perpetually grey conditions of December can sap the spirit. Add in some of the most aggressive cold and flu bugs known to man circulating like wildfire, and who among us can say we’ve absolutely thrived through an entire winter in the Lilac City? It’s not an excuse, but it perhaps makes things a little more understandable.

Of course, the bad weather and rumored illnesses can’t completely take the sting out of all the rough basketball we’ve seen lately. But before declaring doom and gloom, it’s worth remembering these early-season stumbles aren’t unprecedented—and the Zags have a track record of finding their stride when it counts.

(I’d refer you to this stellar article from Peter Woodburn from December of 2022 for some context on December-January in Zagville).

It’s time now for the Zags to reset, tune up, and begin the work of cementing their identity as one of the nation’s top basketball teams, because they absolutely are. The journey starts against Nicholls State.

The Matchup

The Colonels of Nicholls State currently boast a 7-4 record and sit atop the Southland Conference standings. Fans expecting an easy, one-sided Bulldog bulldozing might want to adjust their expectations. This could be an enlivening—and dare I say, fun?—game for the Zags. Nicholls State is scrappy, high-energy, and chaos-loving. They lean into an aggressive, turnover-heavy defense designed to make opponents uncomfortable.

This team is also impressively deep. Due to some injury trouble in the early part of the season, The Colonels currently have 11 players averaging 15 or more minutes per game, so no one on their roster will be dragging their feet. The Zags can expect wave after wave of fresh legs.

Luckily, the Zags have Ryan Nembhard. By my estimation, the best point guard in college basketball. And for the bulk of his 4-year college career, he’s logged 35+ minutes per game without showing fatigue. Unless the Nicholls State backcourt can find the legs to keep up defensively, Ryan’s going to carve them up in the pick and roll for most of regulation.

Offensive Game Plan

Nicholls State’s offense is designed to be as fast and fluid as their defense (the consistency with which they achieve that has been spotty so far, however). Lacking size or a true star player, they instead rely on quick ball movement, opportunistic scoring, and a team of athletic (albeit undersized) bigs. They’re skilled in crashing the boards and finding chances to score in transition, something the Zags sorely need practice in defending, as evidenced against Kentucky and UConn.

While not a perfectly oiled machine, the Colonels are impressively adaptable and dangerous. In just 11 games, 5 different players have led the team in scoring, and another 5 have led in rebounding. They’re riding a 5-game winning streak and thrive on playing the hot hand, keeping defenses unsettled and finding new ways to score. For the Zags, this is the kind of test they need right now—a scrappy opponent that forces them to keep up the tempo on offense while staying sharp and disciplined on defense.

Key Players to Watch

Nicholls State is led by guard Byron Ireland, who’s averaging 13 points and 4 rebounds per game. He’s their most consistent scorer, a strong backcourt defender, and logs 30+ minutes per game. Ireland will have the ball in his hands a lot, and he has a nose for the bucket on dribble-drives, so it’ll be up to Battle, Nembhard, and Hickman to neutralize him and keep him out of the lane. Fortunately for the Zags, Ireland isn’t much of a deep threat—he’s shooting just 19% from beyond the arc this season. Let him shoot; just keep the ball out of the paint.

Most of Nicholls State’s perimeter scoring comes from guard Trae English, who’s hitting 38% of his shots from deep but contributes only 7.5 points per game. He’s streaky, and if Gonzaga can deny him good looks, the Colonels’ offense will feel the squeeze.

A bright spot for the Zags amidst all the chaos of the last few weeks has been Dusty Stromer, particularly defensively. Few has said that he considers Dusty a starter despite the fact that he comes off the bench, and he’s averaging 24 minutes per game to prove it. Although he has yet to maximize his scoring potential, he’s still shooting 47% while playing stellar perimeter defense, funneling his man into the right spots and preventing clear looks at the rim. Stromer is capable of keeping the Colonels’ shooters off the 3-pt line and snagging key rebounds along the way while Ireland is neutralized in the backcourt.

In the frontcourt, Nicholls State is undersized, with no one taller than 6’8”. This could be a perfect bounce-back opportunity for Graham Ike, especially after his quiet 3-point performance against UConn. However, the Colonels’ Mekhi Collins has been punching above his weight. He’s a freak athlete currently averaging nearly 7 rebounds per game in just 20 minutes of action. Offensively, he lives above the rim, and the Zags need to focus on boxing out, crashing the boards, and igniting their transition game to capitalize on this size mismatch. Michael Ajayi is capable of averaging double-digit rebounds per game and will need to continue on his upward trajectory to spark those transition opportunities from the defensive side.

Key to the Game

The biggest question for Gonzaga right now is simple: how do you get the maximum number of players to play well on the same night? Rough games happen, sure—especially early in the season. But as we saw against UConn and Kentucky, the Zags can’t afford 3-5 players having off nights simultaneously, even if a handful of others are stepping up. Inconsistency is what’s been killing the Zags so far this year. Although Khalif Battle has been settling into his role and Ryan Nembhard has been absolutely cooking defenders on the pick-and-roll, the Zags need reliablet offense from the frontcourt and better rim protection to beat those high profile opponents like Kentucky and UConn.

Mark Few’s system thrives on balance. It demands a cohesive team attack on both ends of the floor. Until the Zags strike that balance and get consistent contributions from the maximum number of players in the lineup, they’ll continue to struggle.

An early-season matchup against Nicholls State is the perfect opportunity to start building that consistency. With a big matchup against UCLA looming, it’s time for Gonzaga to get right and get moving in the same direction once again.