Gonzaga vs. Davidson Game Preview

“It’s just Davidson, it’s not like any of them are gonna drop 40 points on us” – Gonzaga fans who were wrong about one important thing in 2008. Tipoff at 5:30 PM Pacific, coverage on ESPN2

For Gonzaga fans, the mere mention of Davidson basketball conjures one name: Stephen Curry. Back in 2008, a baby-faced Curry, swimming in an oversized jersey, torched the Zags for 40 points, knocking them out of the NCAA Tournament. That game is right up there with the 2013 loss to Wichita State as one of the most “What the heck is happening?!” moments in Gonzaga’s history. It was his big coming out party and honestly, it still stings.

Luckily for the Zags, the 2024 Davidson Wildcats aren’t the same team they were back then. And unluckily for the Wildcats, neither is Gonzaga.

Meet the Wildcats

The Wildcats are 5-1, fresh off a 69-58 victory over Providence in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Sure, they were dismantled by Arizona in the opening round, losing 104-71, but up to this point, Davidson has looked like a legit tournament contender. A win against Gonzaga would give them a huge boost come March, and the confidence they gained from beating Providence could make them dangerous when they face Gonzaga down in the Bahamas.

Offensively, Davidson spaces the floor well and relies heavily on the three-ball. They’ve got a few sharpshooters who can get hot from outside in a hurry, but defensively, they’re still figuring things out.

Their standout player is 6’10” Reed Bailey, who leads the team with 17 points and seven rebounds per game. While Arizona shut him down, he’s a force to be reckoned with when he finds his rhythm. Alongside Bailey, 6’7” Bobby Durkin is averaging 16.4 points per game and shooting 53% from beyond the arc. He dropped 20 points on Providence and held his own against Arizona despite the overall low-scoring effort from his team.

However, the real game-changer for Davidson has been Connor Kochera. He scored 20 against Arizona and 22 against Providence, shooting an impressive 56.4% from the field and 90% from the line. If Gonzaga can disrupt Kochera’s flow, they’ll have a much easier time controlling the game.

Although they won by 11 points, Davidson’s win over Providence wasn’t as close as the score suggests. The Wildcats shot 47% from the field, held Providence to 31%, and dominated the paint 32-20. They gut-punched Providence with a 16-2 run in the first half and outscored them 38-18 going into halftime. That being said, when that same team faced Arizona’s size and athleticism, they crumbled. Davidson has yet to face a team who pushes the pace quite like Gonzaga does, and their lack of bench depth and rigorous tournament schedule up to this point could make fatigue a major factor if the Bulldogs get the edge on the Wildcats.

Keys to the Game

1. Contain the Big 3 – Outside of Kochera, Durkin, and Bailey, Davidson lacks depth in skill and athleticism. These three have accounted for 104 of Davidson’s last 140 points over the last 2 games. If Gonzaga can force them into foul trouble, keep Bailey off the low block, and/or lock down the perimeter, the Wildcats don’t have much of a Plan B. Defensively, the Bulldogs will need to keep mucking things up and stay aggressive in the passing lanes without losing track of their assignment on ball screen switches (it happened a few times against Indiana, but it’s clearly been a point of emphasis and has been steadily improving all season). Good defense leads to offense and this is the kind of game the Bulldogs could beat the Wildcats badly in transition.
2. Rest Up – Three games in three days is brutal, even for college athletes. Gonzaga’s backcourt is running on fumes—Ryan Nembhard has spent only three minutes on the bench since arriving in the Bahamas. Hickman and Battle aren’t faring much better, averaging over 33 minutes per game, as well. Fatigue showed in Nembhard’s 5 turnovers against Indiana. Granted, he also had 13 assists and 5 steals, but it’s still a rare stat for someone with an 8:1 assist-to-turnover ratio up to this point.

1. Dusty Stromer’s Turn – If fatigue is the problem, fresh legs are the solution. Dusty Stromer has been a non-factor in Nassau, taking just 4 shots and making all of 1. This could be his chance to step up and provide much-needed scoring from outside and use his exceptional perimeter defense skills to neutralize Davidson’s shooters.
2. Keep Feeding Ajayi – Every time Ajayi scores, you can’t help but wonder why he doesn’t get more touches. Yes, he misses some easy ones, but he also makes difficult shots look effortless with his athleticism and strength. He’s a matchup nightmare for defenders of all shapes and sizes, plain and simple. Coach Few needs to find a way to get Ajayi into a scoring rhythm, even if it means letting him work one-on-one more often like he did in his time at Pepperdine; it’s worth the collateral misses if the WCC’s reigning leading scorer gets a chance to really find his scoring touch along the way.

Bottom Line

Gonzaga’s offense against Indiana was as balanced as it could be in the middle of a foul-fest. There were a handful of lapses defensively and a whole lot of off-ball fouls to clean up, but overall the Bulldogs played more like the Bulldogs than they did against WVU. To beat Davidson, they’ll need to tighten their perimeter defense and limit Bailey’s opportunities inside.

Ultimately, this game could come down to which team best manages fatigue and maintains their composure on defense. If Gonzaga plays like they did against Indiana, they should be fine. But if they slip into their West Virginia form, Davidson could leave the Bahamas with a signature win.

However one feels about this upcoming matchup, longtime Gonzaga fans know one thing: never underestimate a Davidson Wildcat.